Smack: 'Dogs, favorites and real bracket-busters

1. Brian Vickers is in Chase contention. Dario Franchitti is outside the top 35. After five races, what are the biggest surprises of the season so far?

Raygan Swan: Brian Vickers is a huge surprise, but I don't think he will be there 'till the end. He has one top-10 in five races, sure, but that's not the consistency that puts you in the Chase come September.

Joe Menzer: The biggest surprise of the season so far is that Hendrick Motorsports is without a victory -- and that the only one of their drivers in the top 12 is Dale Earnhardt Jr. What's happened to Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon?

David Caraviello: Vickers is a great story. That Red Bull team was so lost last year, and they've come a long, long way. But I have to agree with Joe -- the fact that Hendrick is winless through five races isn't just surprising. It's a shock.

Joe Menzer: Absolutely love it when you agree with me.

David Caraviello: That's what I'm here for, to boost your ego. Johnson's team has shown none of the consistency that's defined his career. Gordon is always there, but can't finish right now. Earnhardt has been really good, though, even if he doesn't yet have a win.

Joe Menzer: You'd have to say that another surprise is the swiftness with which Kyle Busch has adapted to his new team and driving a Toyota. It's been very impressive, to say the least.

Raygan Swan: Honestly, I'm still tired of talking about Hendrick from last season. Everyone was focused on their wins, and now everyone can't stop talking about their lack of wins. What about Kasey Kahne? He is a pleasant surprise and somewhat expected, but I believe last season was largely out of his hands. And Denny Hamlin is somewhat of a surprise to me. He fell off in the Chase last season and hasn't made much noise since then. But Bristol may be the start of something more to come.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree with you about Kahne, Raygan. But he's been here before. If anything, his absence last year was the bigger surprise.

Raygan Swan: That's why I said "expected," David. I know he made the Chase two seasons ago and won the most races.

Joe Menzer: You guys are missing the whole Roush Fenway crew. What about Carl Edwards with two wins, even if one may be tainted? And Greg Biffle being second in points?

Raygan Swan: Carl is no surprise to me. Ever since he's been back with Bob Osborne his performances are consistent and they win. Greg Biffle is a great surprise; maybe it's married life giving him more support and confidence.

Joe Menzer: Raygan, it is beginning to sound as if you saw this whole season coming! I must say I heard a whole lot in the offseason about the Ford guys supposedly being behind.

When Raygan sips from Junior Johnson's magic jar, her future predictions come true.

Raygan Swan: Joe, you didn't know I can predict the future?

Joe Menzer: You are a young woman of many hidden talents, Raygs.

Raygan Swan: Watch, in two minutes, DC will totally disagree with me!

David Caraviello: Again, another "where have you been" kind of situation. Biffle and Edwards are too good to be outside the top 12. What's more surprising to me is the way all of these open-wheelers have tanked early. I think we expected a little bit more, especially from Franchitti and Sam Hornish Jr. Now these guys are in serious jeopardy of missing races from week to week.

Joe Menzer: I'm not that surprised that the open-wheelers have struggled. I thought they would. You can't just jump from that side to stock cars and think it's going to be an easy or necessarily quick transition.

David Caraviello: Uh, Joe, you might want to check out what a fella named Montoya did last season.

Raygan Swan: The open-wheelers are a fad that's about to pass. They need to spend more time in the Nationwide Series. Their names alone won't produce success in the Sprint Cup Series.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree, Raygan. Especially if these guys start to miss races en masse. That's the thing; they don't have a full season to adapt. They have five races. Then the pressure's on.

Joe Menzer: That's just it, DC. Montoya is the exception to the rule. And also, while I like Montoya, what exactly did he really accomplish overall last season?

David Caraviello: He was never in jeopardy of missing races, Joe. He was never in danger of falling outside the top 35. Which, viewed in the context of this year, was quite a feat.

Joe Menzer: Montoya won one Cup race, on a road course, and that was terrific. But he ended up, what, 20th in points. Not that impressive considering others have driven that car to a better overall finish in years past.

Raygan Swan: Montoya is in a class of his own, he shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as a Dario or Carpentier, etc. And don't forget the Brickyard. A second I believe for 'ol JPM.

Joe Menzer: Yep, he was impressive at the Brickyard. Listen, I'm not bashing him. I'm just saying I thought all along he probably was the exception to the rule when it comes to all these open-wheelers. He's got more and a wider range of experience than most others.

Raygan Swan: So much hype around Dario, I just can't believe he hasn't done more. But I think car owner Chip Ganassi is going to ride it out. Be patient with him and give him the training he needs, hopefully.

David Caraviello: Joe had a bad experience with Bogota police a few years back, and he takes it out on JPM.

Raygan Swan: Joe! I bet your wife has bond money in the nightstand at all times for a crazy like you!

Joe Menzer: See, now I'll be getting hate e-mail in Spanish! And as I said, I like JPM and think he's a real talent. But I also think folks tend to over exaggerate his first year. He did well, but now he needs to back it up with multiple wins in a season. Starting this season.

Raygan Swan: Fair enough, Joe. And I am "predicting" he will.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree. But there's a gulf between vying for 20th and just trying to make the show. (Continued)