1. Brian Vickers is in Chase contention. Dario Franchitti is outside the top 35. After five races, what are the biggest surprises of the season so far?

Raygan Swan: Brian Vickers is a huge surprise, but I don't think he will be there 'till the end. He has one top-10 in five races, sure, but that's not the consistency that puts you in the Chase come September.

Joe Menzer: The biggest surprise of the season so far is that Hendrick Motorsports is without a victory -- and that the only one of their drivers in the top 12 is Dale Earnhardt Jr. What's happened to Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon?

David Caraviello: Vickers is a great story. That Red Bull team was so lost last year, and they've come a long, long way. But I have to agree with Joe -- the fact that Hendrick is winless through five races isn't just surprising. It's a shock.

Joe Menzer: Absolutely love it when you agree with me.

David Caraviello: That's what I'm here for, to boost your ego. Johnson's team has shown none of the consistency that's defined his career. Gordon is always there, but can't finish right now. Earnhardt has been really good, though, even if he doesn't yet have a win.

Joe Menzer: You'd have to say that another surprise is the swiftness with which Kyle Busch has adapted to his new team and driving a Toyota. It's been very impressive, to say the least.

Raygan Swan: Honestly, I'm still tired of talking about Hendrick from last season. Everyone was focused on their wins, and now everyone can't stop talking about their lack of wins. What about Kasey Kahne? He is a pleasant surprise and somewhat expected, but I believe last season was largely out of his hands. And Denny Hamlin is somewhat of a surprise to me. He fell off in the Chase last season and hasn't made much noise since then. But Bristol may be the start of something more to come.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree with you about Kahne, Raygan. But he's been here before. If anything, his absence last year was the bigger surprise.

Raygan Swan: That's why I said "expected," David. I know he made the Chase two seasons ago and won the most races.

Joe Menzer: You guys are missing the whole Roush Fenway crew. What about Carl Edwards with two wins, even if one may be tainted? And Greg Biffle being second in points?

Raygan Swan: Carl is no surprise to me. Ever since he's been back with Bob Osborne his performances are consistent and they win. Greg Biffle is a great surprise; maybe it's married life giving him more support and confidence.

Joe Menzer: Raygan, it is beginning to sound as if you saw this whole season coming! I must say I heard a whole lot in the offseason about the Ford guys supposedly being behind.

When Raygan sips from Junior Johnson's magic jar, her future predictions come true.

Raygan Swan: Joe, you didn't know I can predict the future?

Joe Menzer: You are a young woman of many hidden talents, Raygs.

Raygan Swan: Watch, in two minutes, DC will totally disagree with me!

David Caraviello: Again, another "where have you been" kind of situation. Biffle and Edwards are too good to be outside the top 12. What's more surprising to me is the way all of these open-wheelers have tanked early. I think we expected a little bit more, especially from Franchitti and Sam Hornish Jr. Now these guys are in serious jeopardy of missing races from week to week.

Joe Menzer: I'm not that surprised that the open-wheelers have struggled. I thought they would. You can't just jump from that side to stock cars and think it's going to be an easy or necessarily quick transition.

David Caraviello: Uh, Joe, you might want to check out what a fella named Montoya did last season.

Raygan Swan: The open-wheelers are a fad that's about to pass. They need to spend more time in the Nationwide Series. Their names alone won't produce success in the Sprint Cup Series.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree, Raygan. Especially if these guys start to miss races en masse. That's the thing; they don't have a full season to adapt. They have five races. Then the pressure's on.

Joe Menzer: That's just it, DC. Montoya is the exception to the rule. And also, while I like Montoya, what exactly did he really accomplish overall last season?

David Caraviello: He was never in jeopardy of missing races, Joe. He was never in danger of falling outside the top 35. Which, viewed in the context of this year, was quite a feat.

Joe Menzer: Montoya won one Cup race, on a road course, and that was terrific. But he ended up, what, 20th in points. Not that impressive considering others have driven that car to a better overall finish in years past.

Raygan Swan: Montoya is in a class of his own, he shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as a Dario or Carpentier, etc. And don't forget the Brickyard. A second I believe for 'ol JPM.

Joe Menzer: Yep, he was impressive at the Brickyard. Listen, I'm not bashing him. I'm just saying I thought all along he probably was the exception to the rule when it comes to all these open-wheelers. He's got more and a wider range of experience than most others.

Raygan Swan: So much hype around Dario, I just can't believe he hasn't done more. But I think car owner Chip Ganassi is going to ride it out. Be patient with him and give him the training he needs, hopefully.

David Caraviello: Joe had a bad experience with Bogota police a few years back, and he takes it out on JPM.

Raygan Swan: Joe! I bet your wife has bond money in the nightstand at all times for a crazy like you!

Joe Menzer: See, now I'll be getting hate e-mail in Spanish! And as I said, I like JPM and think he's a real talent. But I also think folks tend to over exaggerate his first year. He did well, but now he needs to back it up with multiple wins in a season. Starting this season.

Raygan Swan: Fair enough, Joe. And I am "predicting" he will.

David Caraviello: I don't disagree. But there's a gulf between vying for 20th and just trying to make the show.

2. Is Richard Childress Racing really as strong as its 1-2-3 finish at Bristol might suggest? And can we finally agree that everyone has caught up to Hendrick?

Raygan Swan: I think it's clear by the manufacturer's standings that everyone has caught up. Ford has two wins, Dodge, Toyota and Chevrolet one each. The competition has leveled out.

Joe Menzer: The thing about the Childress guys is that they usually are there at the end. Other than that one major hiccup last season, shortly after they went to the new engine, these guys finish races and are amazingly consistent.

David Caraviello: I think the results thus far show the championship field is wide open. Not only has everybody caught up to Hendrick, I wouldn't say Hendrick is among he favorites right now. Not based on what they've done to date.

Autostock

"So you're sayin' there's a chance."

Joe Menzer: Not to get too caught up in last year, but Harvick and Bowyer were the only two drivers last year who did not have a single DNF. Burton had three. That's a big reason why all three made the Chase. And why they're sitting there in the top 12 again this year. Consistency.

David Caraviello: I'm still not completely sold on RCR. Bowyer's results have been a little erratic, and Burton isn't exactly in the top 10 every week. The depth is there, sure, and all three guys should make the Chase again, but I still think Harvick is the guy in that camp you point to as the real title threat.

Joe Menzer: The thing with them is they need to win more races. One each won't get it done -- not if they want to put another points championship trophy on Richard's mantle, next to the lion's heads or whatever else he's shooting in Mongolia.

David Caraviello: High Altai sheep.

Raygan Swan: And don't forget the vineyard. Must be nice. Do you guys hunt? Hunting seems to be pretty big in NASCAR. I bet Elliot Sadler will go shoot something or other this weekend. First off weekend and all.

Joe Menzer: Well, the vineyard will help if they end up needing to throw a big championship party. But it's way too early for that and there are too many others in their way at the moment. And the only thing I'll be hunting this weekend is Easter eggs, of the Reese's Cup variety probably.

Raygan Swan: Nice! Pass the marshmallow eggs please!

David Caraviello: Joe does not part with his marshmallow eggs easily. His prison time in Colombia taught him that.

Raygan Swan: Now he'll be hunting you, DC!

David Caraviello: If you had to rate the teams right now as championship favorites, I'd say: 1. Gibbs, 2. Roush, 3. RCR, 4. Hendrick.

Joe Menzer: Geez, DC, what did you do? Just go down the current standings and list 'em? How about a gutsier prediction, like going out on a limb and saying Dale Jr. could still get on a roll and do it for Hendrick? Or Jeff Gordon is still going to get there and do it for Hendrick?

Raygan Swan: Oh let's just admit, Jimmie Johnson will come back for a freakin' three-peat and that's all I get to hear about again this season! Unless he has a baby or something. I think Chandra should get preggers, maybe that would change his luck. It did Gordon's. And damn that baby is soooo cute.

David Caraviello: Dude, I didn't even look at the standings. And that's not saying Jeff or Junior can't get it done. But right now, Gibbs is the favorite in my book. I think Stewart is as strong as anyone, just not with the results to show it.

Joe Menzer: Honestly, it's way too early to make a good call. But it looks like Roush Fenway has staying power. I think I'll pick Biffle to win it all. And I agree with you on one thing: in the long run, I would pick Stewart to carry the Gibbs banner over Kyle Busch. Stewart will win more races over the long haul.

Raygan Swan: I pick David Ragan! How's that for a limb, Joe?

David Caraviello: That's one thin limb. Straight off Charlie Brown's Christmas tree.

Raygan Swan: Easy Turbo, he had one third-place finish last year, at Richmond. It's a start. Maybe. Not really.

David Caraviello: Turbo?

Raygan Swan: I have no idea. It just came out. Way too much coffee this morning.

David Caraviello: That's OK, Oil Can Cover.

Joe Menzer: Well, I did just study the standings. And guess what? David Ragan is 21st -- not far behind Brian Vickers, who is 17th (and whom we earlier touted as "being in Chase contention"). JPM is 19th, by the way, after moving up four spots.

3. There's been plenty of talk in the garage about teammates potentially swapping points -- at Petty, at Penske, even at Roush Fenway. Isn't this circumventing the intent of the top 35 rule?

Raygan Swan: Yes! read Dave Rodman's column, 'nuff said.

David Caraviello: When are the folks in Daytona Beach going to learn -- you come up with a rule, the guys in the garage are going to find a way around it. The top 35 is no different. This point swapping is a ridiculous unintended consequence.

Joe Menzer: I think this is one of the things that makes those who look at this sport a bit from the outside, maybe thinking of dipping their toes in it as fans or possibly even sponsors, and wonder what in the heck is going on. It's a ridiculous practice.

Raygan Swan: It's sad, and could in theory put drivers like Kurt Busch in bad positions.

David Caraviello: But how can NASCAR crack down on it now, after allowing it to go on to this point? They've opened Pandora's box here.

Joe Menzer: I was very glad to see that they are going to do the right thing at Petty Enterprises (read more). To even think for a moment about having their drivers switch cars was dead wrong.

Raygan Swan: Sponsors don't pay millions in branding to put in a different driver.

David Caraviello: It's incredibly unfair to guys like Busch. The sponsors are absolutely right to take a stand here. If I'm Dewalt, I'm not giving Matt Kenseth's points to Jamie McMurray and starting races in the back. No living way.

Joe Menzer: It's simply not right. McMurray drove the car to get it in the precarious situation it's now in, same as Kyle Petty and others. Now let them see if they can drive themselves forward in the standings. No gimmicks should be allowed.

Raygan Swan: Or they don't drive!

Joe Menzer: Right. Or they go home. It's that simple. This is a sport. You are supposed to have to compete. And when something doesn't go right, you don't get a do-over.

David Caraviello: It's like, where's the emphasis on personal responsibility? You tanked it early and can't make the top 35? Oh well, please take the points from your teammate who worked his butt off to get there. No way.

Raygan Swan: It takes the sporting nature and competition right out of NASCAR, and can become a crutch for a handful of drivers who ride around in the back. Hard work and results should be awarded, not mediocrity.

Joe Menzer: But then, this is why the whole top 35 rule should be banished forever. They need to come up with a new system that won't allow for ridiculous loopholes like this.

David Caraviello: Agreed. This is all another reason why the top 35 rule needs to go. It's outlived its very brief period of usefulness.

Joe Menzer: The thing is, I think everyone agrees on that. The key is getting NASCAR to admit it -- and working together with the race teams to come up with a new system that is better and more fair for all.

David Caraviello: How about qualifying on speed?

Joe Menzer: If they want, they can consult us Track Smackers as well. I get about 100 e-mails a week with readers offering various ideas about how to change it. The fans all hate the top 35 rule.

Raygan Swan: I have an entire presentation in a PDF from a reader, I'll send it over to B. France right now ...

David Caraviello: The old provisional setup was a little clunky, but it was better than this. These smaller teams face way too much stress on Fridays.

Joe Menzer: Well, I like the speed idea. Just letting the top 43 each week get in -- but the fact is, you do have to have some sort of mulligan system in place for the top drivers.

Raygan Swan: And wasn't the top 35 rule also made to protect sponsors in a way?

David Caraviello: Correct. Ask Little Debbie and Red Bull how they feel about it. And we forgot to mention the most important thing this week: who do you have winning the NCAA basketball tournament? Maybe Raygan can peek into the future again to give me a heads-up on that. But please don't give me Butler or Indiana.

Joe Menzer: You need her for that, DC? Come on. I have my bracket filled out already.

Raygan Swan: I watched Glory Road last night to get me warmed up!

Joe Menzer: Glory Road, a great movie! I own it.

David Caraviello: Sorry, but Glory Road is about as bad as the top 35 rule. When it comes to college basketball movies, there's Hoosiers and everything else. And in this tournament, take UCLA.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.