Fantasy: M'ville Preview

This week, NASCAR heads to another short track, but fantasy owners might find more inspiration by looking to the West and the North.

Fast facts

What	Goody's Cool Orange 500
When	Green, 2:12 p.m. ET Sunday
TV	FOX, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio	MRN (Sirius Ch. 28)

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Like Bristol Motor Speedway, Martinsville Speedway is a half-mile track, but that is where the similarities end. With a mere 12 degrees of banking, this little track in Southern Virginia is one of the flattest on the circuit, compared to the 30 degrees of banking at Bristol. While it takes a special driver to navigate all of NASCAR's tracks measuring less than a mile in length, fantasy owners might get more useful data from the one-mile, flat tracks of Phoenix International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire is also banked at 12 degrees, while Phoenix is slightly flatter at 11 degrees, and even though the distance around these two courses is twice that of Martinsville, a driver has similar challenges. Going fast on a flat track is more about handling in the middle of the corners than raw speed down the straightaways. Drivers need to slow down entering the corner, carry as much speed as possible to near the apex of the turn and then nail the accelerator to rocket down the next straightaway.

Accelerating too quickly often results in pushing up out of the turn and the need to feather the throttle to keep from smacking the wall; too slow, and the driver is not going to have the straightway speed he needs to be competitive. In fact, the margin of error in the corners at Martinsville can be measured in mere feet and at Phoenix or New Hampshire in only yards. Drivers with robotic consistency are best on this track type, which is why Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson swept the top 10 on these three courses last year.

The Favorites

Despite their struggles so far this season, Gordon and Johnson have to be considered favorites this week at Martinsville. If they do not break out of their slump in the Goody's Cool Orange 500, the next few races are going to be supremely challenging. In addition to their sweep of the top 10 on short, flat tracks last year, they have been bulletproof at Martinsville for the past five years and neither driver has finished outside the top 10 in that span. Gordon and Johnson have won eight of the last 10 Martinsville races and they deserve all of the hype that surrounds them when they arrive at the track this week. The closer one gets to the present day, the better their numbers are: During the last three years, Gordon has an average finish of 2.3 and Johnson's average is 2.8, which makes them a good value regardless of their salary cap.

Last year, Hendrick Motorsports established their dominance in new car races with runs at Bristol and Martinsville. Johnson won both events with Gordon on his back bumper for most of the race, but Kyle Busch could not be ignored. He finished fourth in both events, and that strong run not only recommends him in his new Joe Gibbs Racing ride, but also increases Dale Earnhardt Jr's odds.

Busch is possibly the hottest driver in stock car racing, and if not for three consecutive accidents in the Nationwide series, he would lead the points in all of NASCAR's premier divisions. A freak occurrence last week at Bristol, when his steering locked and spun him out of the lead, might well have kept from him from winning the Food City 500, but instead he lost a lap and was relegated to a 17th-place result.

Earnhardt had no such problem. He ran with the leaders all day before finishing fifth, and if not for an accident that was not of his making in Fontana, he might be the point leader instead of Busch. The transition to Hendrick Motorsports has been storybook-like and both of these drivers have momentum to spare entering this weekend.

The Best of the Rest

This is the part of the preview where we usually talk about dark horses, but none of these drivers are likely to catch anyone by surprise in light of the start they've had to the 2008 season. Each of them has had their share of problems at Martinsville, however, which keeps them from being considered outright favorites.

Greg Biffle

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Richard Childress Racing drivers have been absolutely stellar this season, which is why they are currently in the top 10 in the standings. Last week's one-two-three sweep at Bristol was certainly no fluke since Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick have swept the top 15 in the first five races. Clint Bowyer came on a little more slowly, but his last two races have ended in a sixth- and third-place finish. Toss into the mix victories in the last two Nationwide series races for Bowyer at Bristol and Scott Wimmer at Nashville, and the mood in the RCR camp is rightfully high.

All three of the Cup drivers performed very well at Martinsville in their last outing as well and swept the top 15, but they are relegated to the status of dark horse this week because they collectively failed to crack the top five on this track in either event last year. Harvick experienced trouble early in the spring race to finish 41st and could salvage only a 10th in the fall; Burton came closest to the top five with a sixth in the spring, but slipped to 12th in the fall, and Bowyer was 11th and ninth in his two outings. Watch them closely in practice, and use them only if they fit a niche on your roster.

Likewise, Greg Biffle is one of the hottest drivers on the circuit, with a seven-race top-15 streak that extends to Phoenix last fall and three consecutive top-fives, but Martinsville has been tough on him. It took nine tries to crack the top 10, which he finally managed last fall with a seventh-place finish, but that is insufficient to raise his career average on this track to better than 24th. There are going to be better places to start him in the coming weeks, so he might just deserve a rest at Martinsville.

Long Shots

As predicted last week, nearly all of the rookie drivers are now outside the top 35 in owner points and their troubles are not behind them yet. Only Michael McDowell -- who inherits a top 35 team for his NASCAR debut -- and Sam Hornish Jr. are locked into this week's race, and the No. 77 gets the "free pass" by the narrowest of margins. If not for the early retirement of Jamie McMurray at Bristol, he would be 36th in the standings and forced to qualify on time. The only thing working in the favor of Patrick Carpentier, Dario Franchitti and Hornish this week is that the flat tracks behave a lot like road courses, since the braking point comes before the corner, but that makes them drivers to watch with interest, but not ones on which you want to risk your hard-earned salary cap.

Casey Mears is another risky driver who might find himself on fantasy owners' radar screens this week because of Hendrick's domination. He's run a lot better than his 33rd-place standing in the points might indicate, but Martinsville probably won't cure all of his ills. Last year, while Gordon, Johnson and Busch made a mockery of these races, Mears limped home 42nd in the spring and 20th in the fall. He's rarely seen better days on this short track, with only one top-10 in 10 career starts and an average finish of 25.3. This week, the team is likely going to be focused on recording a solid top-25 run to give them a little breathing room in the points, and that is far from a recommendation to start them.