Competitive balance rules at Texas Motor Speedway

In the Loop: Marquee drivers experience highs and lows

By Official Release
April 4, 2008
12:30 PM EDT

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Even the best of the best find trouble at Texas Motor Speedway -- according to the statistics.

That may explain two interesting bullet points that make Texas so unpredictable:

• There have been 13 different winners in Texas' 14 races.

• Jeff Gordon has yet to visit Texas' Victory Lane -- it's one of two tracks at which he has not won. Homestead-Miami Speedway is the other.

Here's what makes this Sunday's Samsung 500 such an interesting watch -- the unknowns are endless.

Below are four past champions and their best/worst finish and best/worst Driver Ratings in the past six Texas races. The differences are stark:

Notables at Texas Motor Speedway (2005-2007)

Driver	Best Finish	Worst Finish	Best Driver Rating	Worst Driver Rating

Kurt Busch	7 (4/05)	34 (4/06)	117.2 (4/05)	72.4 (4/06)
Jeff Gordon	4 (4/07)	22 (4/06)	136.3 (4/07)	69.7 (4/06)
Jimmie Johnson	1 (11/07)	38 (4/07)	125.1 (11/07)	75.4 (4/06)
Matt Kenseth	2 (11/07*)	18 (4/05)	133.8 (11/05)	73.2 (11/06)
Tony Stewart	1 (11/06)	31 (4/05)	149.7 (11/06)	84.8 (4/07)

* Finished second three times, most recently 11/07

Gordon's absence from Victory Lane could end sooner than later. His past three races at Texas have resulted in finishes of ninth, fourth and seventh, and his Driver Rating has not dipped below 98.1 in any of them.

His best opportunity for a Texas win might have been in last April's race. Gordon led 173 laps, had 65 Fastest Laps Run, a Driver Rating of 136.3 and an Average Running Position of 2.1. All of those were race-bests.

Like last week, when the statistics suggested Gordon and Johnson would slide into the top 12 after Martinsville -- and Martin Truex Jr. would fall out -- the stats now imply a Kenseth-for-Ryan Newman top-12 trade-off.

Kenseth is solid at Texas, while Newman has struggled -- despite his fifth-place finish there this past November. Prior to that race Newman, currently 11th in the series standings, posted finishes of 40th, 34th and 32nd. During that same span Kenseth, now 15th in the standings, has checked in with results of second, 12th, second and second.

Here are their head-to-head stats in the past four Texas races:

Kenseth vs. Newman at Texas

Driver	Races	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish	Avg. Run Pos.	Driver Rating	Quality Passes	No. Fast Laps	Pct. Laps / Top 15	Led	Pts.

Kenseth	4	16.0	4.5	11.5	101.3	124	52	69.3	75	657
Newman	4	17.3	27.8	25.3	60.3	59	9	27.8	4	331

• Texas Motor Speedway: Race Winners | By the Numbers | Fantasy Preview

Speaking of competitive balance, notice how the 2008 Sprint Cup Series season has mirrored Texas' parity. There have been six different winners in seven races this season, and 60 potential Chase for the Sprint Cup bonus points spread among the six different drivers.

Additionally, six drivers own season Driver Ratings of at least 100.0, and only 10.5 Driver Rating points separate the top six. Here are the top six in 2008 Driver Rating: