Fantasy: Phoenix Preview

In 20 years of racing at Phoenix International Raceway not much has changed. There once was a hole in the wall to allow haulers in and out of the facility, and even though that has been closed, the backstretch still maintains a peculiar shape -- kind of a modified dogleg that creates challenges for the drivers.

As similar as one track may appear to another on paper, every course is unique, but fantasy owners can expand the data pool and improve their selections by looking at a driver's record on other short, flat tracks. Different in shape, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is similarly flat and 1 mile in length. Martinsville Speedway is half the size of Phoenix, but these three courses have one thing in common: they are all rhythm tracks that require a driver to hit very precise marks lap after lap.

Once a racer finds the groove on the short, flat tracks, he can rack up strong finishes, and it's not uncommon for a driver to go several years without falling out of the top 10. For that reason, handicapping the flat-track races has traditionally been relatively easy, but that does not mean that dark horses are not good values, as well. Last spring in this race, Jeff Green, Johnny Sauter and Bobby Labonte all posted top-10s in the midst of what might otherwise be characterized as a disappointing season.

The stakes are certainly higher now than they were 20 years ago. The total purse in the 1988 Checker 500k was less than $375,000 of which Alan Kulwicki pocketed the winner's share of $54,100. Last spring, the purse was more than 800 percent greater at about $4,225,000 and Jeff Gordon took home more than a quarter of a million dollars in prize money.

Of course, the purse is only a small percentage of what it takes to run a successful Sprint Cup team and sponsors pick up the lion's share of the tab. That's enough to keep owners' nerves frayed at the edges and this week Chip Ganassi blasted all three of his teams for non-performance, threatening that heads would roll if things don't improve. Haas CNC Racing and Jeremy Mayfield mutually decided to part ways after slipping outside the top 35 in owner points, and Mike Skinner continues to 'guest-drive' the No. 84 in the place of A.J. Allmendinger until that team can claw its way into the top 35.

The good news for all of the drivers outside the top 35 is that 45 cars are entered for 43 available slots, which means only two teams will have to go home before the race. However, when a lightly funded entry like that of John Andretti finds the speed to make the show, it certainly shuffles the deck.

The Favorites

The favorites are pretty easy to identify this week. Three drivers have been nearly perfect on the short, flat tracks since the start of 2006, and in 39 combined starts, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart have amassed six victories, 27 top-fives and finished worse than 15th only twice. Their combined average finish during that span equals 6.4, despite Johnson and Stewart each suffering crash damage at New Hampshire in 2006. If those two results are removed from the stats, these three drivers have an average finish of 4.7 when they have been running at the end.

Desert dogs

Four drivers have won back-to-back races at Phoenix. Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick are two of them. Now, the two RCR teammates are 1-2 in points.

• By the Numbers, click here

On four occasions in the past 13 races at Phoenix, Martinsville and New Hampshire, all three drivers have finished inside the top five, and this week could easily be a replay of the 2006 Martinsville spring race when they finished 1-2-3. By the numbers, Gordon has the best chance of finishing the highest on the grid. His average finish on these tracks during the past two years is 4.6, compared to Johnson's 6.4 and Stewart's 8.2, but anything can happen in the closing laps to change those odds.

Denny Hamlin is another flat-track master who cannot be overlooked, especially in light of his victory two weeks ago at Martinsville but overall, his record is not as bullet proof as the three favorites already profiled. The No. 11 got off to a slow start on these tracks in 2006 when he experienced crash damage at Martinsville and Phoenix that spring.

During the summer of 2006, he finished sixth at New Hampshire and then rattled off six consecutive top-fives on the short, flat tracks that culminated in a victory when the series returned to New Hampshire the following year. In same time period, Hamlin also swept the larger flat track of Pocono Raceway, which is more than enough reason to put him on the vast majority of rosters this week.

Dark Horses

It seems inevitable that Dale Earnhardt Jr. will win this year, but it might be difficult to predict exactly when and where. During the past two weeks, Earnhardt has been heavily favored to challenge for the checkers but the team has been unable to get the setup perfect at the end of the race. Still, the No. 88 enters the weekend with a five-race streak of top-15s even though the results have been getting progressively worse. He has gone from a high of second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to the 12th he earned last week at Texas Motor Speedway. Phoenix has been kind to Junior in the past. In 2003 and 2004, he won back-to-back events as part of a four-race streak of top-fives and even though he has only one top-10 in his past five tries in Arizona, Hendrick Motorsports power makes him a driver to watch this week.

Kevin Harvick struggled last week and fell off the lead lap for the first time all season, but Phoenix should be a welcome relief. He swept Victory Lane there in 2006 and came extremely close to sweeping the Nationwide races, as well. Last year in the new body style, he was not as strong, but the No. 29 still managed to sweep the top 10 with a 10th in the spring and a sixth in the fall race. Make him a driver to watch in practice, and if his times are near the top of the leaderboard, you can start him with confidence.

Truer dark horses might be found in the Haas CNC stable. When it decided to release Mayfield at the beginning of the week, picking a replacement driver was not very difficult. Last year, both Johnny Sauter and Jeff Green earned some of their best finishes at Phoenix, including a sweep of the top 10 in this race. More impressive still, Sauter had to come from the back of the grid after starting 42nd to earn his ninth-place finish. When the series returned to Phoenix in the fall, Sauter was nearly as strong with a 15th-place result. Because of the overall strength of the organization, Scott Riggs also should be considered a strong dark-horse contender and after teasing fantasy owners for most of the early races, he should be able to capitalize with a strong finish this week.

Bobby Labonte is another consistently strong mid-cap driver at Phoenix. Since 2004, he has recorded five top-10s and an average finish of 11.6 in seven starts. Last year, he finished eighth in the spring and still was a good value in the fall with his 18th-place result. There are a lot of distractions at Petty Enterprises for the moment -- with Kyle Petty required to qualify on time and rumors surrounding an impending defection of Labonte to RCR -- but the best place to concentrate is inside a racecar, and once he puts the helmet on, Bobby is going to focus on finishing strong.