Track Smack: Battling out of an odd deficit ... already (cont'd)

3. Jeff Burton leads the series in points. Carl Edwards leads the series in wins. Is either one of these guys emerging as the favorite for the championship right now?

Mark Aumann: I'd throw Kyle Busch's name in the ring, too. He'd have as many wins as Edwards if he could finish what he started. And you know, there's the possibility that Junior could be carrying the Hendrick banner at the end of the season. It's really coming down to a battle between NASCAR's Big Four -- Roush, Gibbs, Childress and Hendrick.

David Caraviello: I will admit, I didn't think Burton was the class of the RCR field as recently as a few weeks ago. But he's got that sneaky good about him now. Every time you look, he's in the top five. He's getting on a roll like Gordon was on this time last year.

	Burton	Busch	Edwards
Daytona	13	4	19
California	12	4	1
Las Vegas	5	11	1
Atlanta	10	1	42
Bristol	1	17	16
Martinsville	3	38	9
Texas	6	3	1
Rank	1	3	9

Mark Aumann: What's surprising is the lack of strength from Dodge's best teams.

Dave Rodman: The most significant thing for these guys, and it goes back to No. 1, is how consistent they've been with these cars. Shrub definitely belongs in that scheme, but there are more than that. I thought the two Penske cars would contend more consistently, so we'll have to see.

Mark Aumann: If there's a knock on Burton, it may be that he hasn't strung together wins. If he gets a 1999 season going, the year he won six, then I think he's got a shot. But the last two years, Johnson has decimated people in the fall -- and it may take that kind of dominant performance in October to take the title. That's why Edwards looks like the real deal right now.

Dave Rodman: At this point, being erratic won't eliminate everyone from the Chase, but the most erratic will fall by the wayside. And Kevin Harvick deserves to be part of that premier group, at this point.

David Caraviello: But you don't have to win now, guys. It's all about staying in the top 12.

Mark Aumann: Oh, I totally agree, David. The magic number is how many points ahead of 13th position you are. If you have enough of a cushion for a bad race or two, then that's good.

Dave Rodman: The first 26 races are all about establishing and maintaining, which, God help us, is the boredom hackers' delight. With the Chase format, you have to play to get in, then plan to get hot.

David Caraviello: To me, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are the Memphis Tigers in all this -- the wild cards. Can Shrub be patient enough to finish? Can Junior stay on the roll he's been all year?

Mark Aumann: The Memphis Tigers may win more games this season than the Detroit Tigers.

Dave Rodman: You can certainly go into a dive at this point, but we ought to wait to mid-summer to see who's on a roll.

David Caraviello: And I wonder if Carl can maintain this level all season. Not that he has to, mind you. Once you get in, it's anybody's ballgame. That's when somebody has to take it by the throat. As Johnson did last year, which Mark has already pointed out.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, it's all about big-picture racing right now. Since you get no advantage for leading after 26 races, it's all about scoring points and staying within striking distance.

Dave Rodman: But more than any one person, Edwards seems like a great bet to me. With the way he's already run, and the number of intermediate races, and the way a lot of people have struggled with this tire and car combination, Carl could challenge JJ's win total from last year.

David Caraviello: And Burton? Is he just setting the pace at this point? The man doesn't have a finish worse than 13th all year.

Dave Rodman: Well, he could certainly Terry Labonte his way to the title -- or Matt Kenseth. Even though those were different eras and the old system, I think Burton could make it work.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, I'd equate this to watching an elite group of runners in the 1,600 meters. You spend the first three laps getting in position for the final kick. The idea is to not get tripped up and fall out of contention.

David Caraviello: Agreed. You don't have to win over the first 26. But you do have to win in the last 10. Although Burton does have a victory already this season.

Dave Rodman: Well, the neat thing about Cup racing is you can actually fall flat on your face and still win.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, I don't think the Chase allows another Kenseth-type championship.

Dave Rodman: Johnson proved it works both ways -- but winning was key. JB will win at least a couple more races this season. But at this point, I'm way more curious to see when a Hendrick car will win the first one -- though, with the way they ran at Martinsville, you'd have to think this weekend is a great shot.

David Caraviello: That said, it's off to Phoenix. I have the sunscreen and rattlesnake antivenin. Ready to go!

Dave Rodman: Antivenin -- what, are you planning to watch the race from the hillside?

David Caraviello: I am toying with that

Dave Rodman: You'd do better to have scorpion repellant.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.