Track Smack: Battling out of an odd deficit ... already

1. Jeff Gordon, the defending winner of this week's race at Phoenix, has three finishes in the top five this season and three more of 35th or worse. Will the real four-time champion please stand up?

Mark Aumann: This has to be one of the oddest seasons for Gordon -- and I mean that literally. He's finished 39th, 35th, 11th and 43rd in odd-numbered races this year, and all three of his top-fives have come in even-numbered events.

David Caraviello: Jeff's not nearly as bad as some of those poor finishes would suggest. He's had some rotten luck early this season, perhaps making up for everything going right for him during the first half of last year.

Dave Rodman: Phoenix is a short track. He'll be fine. Even though his Bristol outing was like Texas in terms of a struggle -- and the finish matched the depth of the struggle.

Mark Aumann: Texas was the first time I can remember where the No. 24 was awful from the time it rolled off the hauler until they put what was left of it back in the truck. But then again, Texas has been Gordon's worst track -- and Phoenix is one of his best.

David Caraviello: Although he had never won there until this race last year, when he tied the late Dale Earnhardt in career wins and broke out the big No. 3 flag. That was great stuff. The Las Vegas race almost sums up the first part of his season -- run great, up among the leaders, and get knocked out in a wreck near the end. Just bad timing.

Dave Rodman: But the timing at Vegas was all his -- he made the mistake.

David Caraviello: Oh, no question. But still, it was a great run ruined at the very end.

Dave Rodman: Very true, and I don't want to minimize that. I will say this: If they don't straighten it out, I think Ella will be missing her daddy for awhile -- because I think the 24 will do what the 48 did, to straighten their deal out from Atlanta to Texas.

Mark Aumann: It really does show how narrow the range of "decent handling" is now on these cars. It's amazing how far off they were, after being pretty good at intermediate tracks up to that point. As Junior said, you make a minor correction and it makes a huge change to the handling.

David Caraviello: And how hard they are to drive. You don't see Jeff Gordon make mistakes like the one he made at Las Vegas very often.

Mark Aumann: And it really tells you a lot about how good Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch have been -- or how they can drive a car that's not perfect.

Dave Rodman: Well, to some degree that speaks to what our Texas winner was saying. Could be the dawn of a new era -- and there's something to be said for that. Though, until we grow enough race drivers who can drive 'em, we're gonna have to get used to some damned boring racing -- to hear the masses preach it.

David Caraviello: Thing about Gordon is, he and teammate Jimmie Johnson -- whose cars come out of the same Hendrick shop -- have had very similar early seasons. Johnson just hasn't had the accidents that have set him back. But they both started off sluggishly, by their own standards.

Mark Aumann: One of the byproducts of the new car is the lack of attrition. And that really hurts someone who runs up front all race -- Greg Biffle and Martin Truex Jr. at Texas -- and has a failure late in the race. They lost major points because so many cars were still running at the time.

Dave Rodman: Busch and Edwards are the consummate wheelmen. They might make rash errors -- but not very often. And it's just proof again, gimmies are not necessarily a good thing. You have got to close the deal.

David Caraviello: I agree with Dave, I think Gordon will eventually be all right. But history shows us that it's dangerous to spend so much of the year hanging around that Chase cutoff line. It gets harder and harder to get out of that danger zone as the year goes on, the point differences grow, and it become more difficult to climb over people.

Mark Aumann: Well, there are probably 15 cars fighting over 12 spots. And yeah, after Richmond, three folks are going to look back on a race or two that made the difference. For Gordon, it could very well be Texas.

Dave Rodman: That's true. You can say you're not worried about it -- but the next slip might be the one you don't want to make. Kinda like Michael McDowell's accident.

2. Haas CNC has changed drivers. Petty Enterprises has changed crew chiefs. Bill Davis Racing has changed management. Is the top 35 rule causing these teams on the fringe to make rash, early moves?

Mark Aumann: The top 35 has really become the demarcation line for owners to go from satisfaction to dissatisfaction. Once you fall out, it seems to be the thing that sparks change. I'd lump BAM's reorganization in there, too.

David Caraviello: We are seeing something of a disparity in the way teams are handling this. Some, like Haas and Petty, have been relatively quick to make changes. Others like Ganassi and Evernham have stayed the course.

Silly Season already

• Mayfield released from Haas
• Cooper new No. 45 crew chief
• BDR shuffles management
• BAM to skip Texas, Phoenix

Dave Rodman: I think teams have always made rash, early moves -- but it seems the top 35 has multiplied the number of teams that feel compelled to do it.

Mark Aumann: As David said about the Chase, every race you miss is one fewer chance to get yourself back in the top 35 -- so there's panic there for a very valid reason.

David Caraviello: I guess the crux of the question is -- is it too early to do it? Are six or seven races enough of a barometer to gauge, say, Jeremy Mayfield's ability in the 70 car?

Mark Aumann: And there aren't a lot of drivers sitting idle who can pull a team back from outside the top 35. If they were, they'd have full-time gigs by now.

Dave Rodman: It's a pure loss -- you can't even compete if you're not in the show.

David Caraviello: I agree, Mark. Which makes you wonder if some of these teams would be better off staying put, unless there are internal personnel conflicts we don't know about.

Dave Rodman: BAM's decision was more budget-driven and -- considering where they are, and what they have to gain with their Toyota switch -- it was the most sensible thing they could do. Their deficit was beyond reasonable. Both Haas CNC cars have been consistently bad, so something has to give. But what's hard to figure out is what's holding them back.

David Caraviello: Then again, you look at Dario Franchitti's situation and wonder, would he benefit from a personnel shakeup? If Chip's comments on satellite radio last weekend were any indication, the frustration is growing over there.

Dave Rodman: All that needs to be said is, if you are gonna start executing people, you better make sure you have the guilty parties.

Mark Aumann: And again, the economy is driving some of this, because the No. 70 is running on the company's dime -- since it's sponsored by Haas Automation. I think it's a lot like firing the manager in baseball. Sometimes you have to shake things up to see if you can make a difference. Usually the crew chief is the first to go, but apparently Haas wanted to switch out the driver.

David Caraviello: Then Mark, if baseball were like NASCAR, Jim Leyland of your beloved Tigers would be out of a job.

Mark Aumann: And perhaps he will be, if they don't start showing some life soon. Don't forget, the Tigers fired their manager and general manager after an 0-6 start one season. And the Orioles did too, and promptly went 0-23.

David Caraviello: But doesn't history indicate that all this early changing only puts you more in the hole? Is there an example of a struggling team that changed driver or crew chief early and turned it around?

Mark Aumann: That begs the question -- was the team destined to struggle, no matter who was driving? And if so, does it really matter?

David Caraviello: I just look at Wood Brothers, and how they've shuffled drivers looking for a spark, and it hasn't worked for them.

Dave Rodman: If the 70 has had some preparation issues -- which in a couple cases it seems like it has -- the driver would have to be living in the car to help that situation.

David Caraviello: Interesting though, that Haas is going back to the guy they canned last year. Strange homecoming that will be. But I guess if you're Johnny Sauter and you want a Cup ride, you hold no grudges.

Dave Rodman: Will be more interesting to see how they match drivers to courses. Johnny's run well at Haas, he was available, and he maintained a relationship with car owner Joe Custer, so the bridge was there.

3. Jeff Burton leads the series in points. Carl Edwards leads the series in wins. Is either one of these guys emerging as the favorite for the championship right now?

Mark Aumann: I'd throw Kyle Busch's name in the ring, too. He'd have as many wins as Edwards if he could finish what he started. And you know, there's the possibility that Junior could be carrying the Hendrick banner at the end of the season. It's really coming down to a battle between NASCAR's Big Four -- Roush, Gibbs, Childress and Hendrick.

David Caraviello: I will admit, I didn't think Burton was the class of the RCR field as recently as a few weeks ago. But he's got that sneaky good about him now. Every time you look, he's in the top five. He's getting on a roll like Gordon was on this time last year.

	Burton	Busch	Edwards
Daytona	13	4	19
California	12	4	1
Las Vegas	5	11	1
Atlanta	10	1	42
Bristol	1	17	16
Martinsville	3	38	9
Texas	6	3	1
Rank	1	3	9

Mark Aumann: What's surprising is the lack of strength from Dodge's best teams.

Dave Rodman: The most significant thing for these guys, and it goes back to No. 1, is how consistent they've been with these cars. Shrub definitely belongs in that scheme, but there are more than that. I thought the two Penske cars would contend more consistently, so we'll have to see.

Mark Aumann: If there's a knock on Burton, it may be that he hasn't strung together wins. If he gets a 1999 season going, the year he won six, then I think he's got a shot. But the last two years, Johnson has decimated people in the fall -- and it may take that kind of dominant performance in October to take the title. That's why Edwards looks like the real deal right now.

Dave Rodman: At this point, being erratic won't eliminate everyone from the Chase, but the most erratic will fall by the wayside. And Kevin Harvick deserves to be part of that premier group, at this point.

David Caraviello: But you don't have to win now, guys. It's all about staying in the top 12.

Mark Aumann: Oh, I totally agree, David. The magic number is how many points ahead of 13th position you are. If you have enough of a cushion for a bad race or two, then that's good.

Dave Rodman: The first 26 races are all about establishing and maintaining, which, God help us, is the boredom hackers' delight. With the Chase format, you have to play to get in, then plan to get hot.

David Caraviello: To me, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are the Memphis Tigers in all this -- the wild cards. Can Shrub be patient enough to finish? Can Junior stay on the roll he's been all year?

Mark Aumann: The Memphis Tigers may win more games this season than the Detroit Tigers.

Dave Rodman: You can certainly go into a dive at this point, but we ought to wait to mid-summer to see who's on a roll.

David Caraviello: And I wonder if Carl can maintain this level all season. Not that he has to, mind you. Once you get in, it's anybody's ballgame. That's when somebody has to take it by the throat. As Johnson did last year, which Mark has already pointed out.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, it's all about big-picture racing right now. Since you get no advantage for leading after 26 races, it's all about scoring points and staying within striking distance.

Dave Rodman: But more than any one person, Edwards seems like a great bet to me. With the way he's already run, and the number of intermediate races, and the way a lot of people have struggled with this tire and car combination, Carl could challenge JJ's win total from last year.

David Caraviello: And Burton? Is he just setting the pace at this point? The man doesn't have a finish worse than 13th all year.

Dave Rodman: Well, he could certainly Terry Labonte his way to the title -- or Matt Kenseth. Even though those were different eras and the old system, I think Burton could make it work.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, I'd equate this to watching an elite group of runners in the 1,600 meters. You spend the first three laps getting in position for the final kick. The idea is to not get tripped up and fall out of contention.

David Caraviello: Agreed. You don't have to win over the first 26. But you do have to win in the last 10. Although Burton does have a victory already this season.

Dave Rodman: Well, the neat thing about Cup racing is you can actually fall flat on your face and still win.

Mark Aumann: Yeah, I don't think the Chase allows another Kenseth-type championship.

Dave Rodman: Johnson proved it works both ways -- but winning was key. JB will win at least a couple more races this season. But at this point, I'm way more curious to see when a Hendrick car will win the first one -- though, with the way they ran at Martinsville, you'd have to think this weekend is a great shot.

David Caraviello: That said, it's off to Phoenix. I have the sunscreen and rattlesnake antivenin. Ready to go!

Dave Rodman: Antivenin -- what, are you planning to watch the race from the hillside?

David Caraviello: I am toying with that

Dave Rodman: You'd do better to have scorpion repellant.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.