Fantasy: Talladega Preview

In 2007, NASCAR debuted the new body style on this restrictor-plate superspeedway, but it's the same old Talladega.

In this year's Speedweeks, driver after driver got insanely loose during the weekend and managed to keep their cars from spinning out. By comparison, the aerodynamically sleek older automobiles would have spun like a top, but the side pods on the rear spoiler served as a parachute this February and kept the new boxier cars in line.

In last year's EA Sports 500, NASCAR rolled out the new car at Talladega Superspeedway, for its first raceday test on the restrictor-plate superspeedways. Some drivers chose to run at the front of the pack and some dropped to the back, but nearly all of them raced single-file until the final laps. When the field closed up into a big drafting pack after a caution, however, danger still lurked just beneath the surface, and when Bobby Labonte cut a tire and spun up the track, 11 cars were ultimately collected in a Lap 146 crash.

And therein lays the conundrum for fantasy owners: Which characteristic will control the Aaron's 499?

Will the new car or "old Talladega" determine the winner?

With the restrictor plate, cars will continue to struggle to break free of the draft, but the increased stability of the new design will certainly minimize the risk of a "Big One" crash. Familiarity breeds contempt, however, and a false sense of security is going to cause someone to step over the line -- perhaps not this week, but ultimately.

Traditionally, this event has seen more carnage than the fall Talladega race. Since the beginning of the 2000 season, the Aaron's 499 has caused an average of 15.4 cars to be damaged in the biggest wreck of the afternoon compared to only 6.6 in the fall, and that could be bad news for drivers who need to earn maximum points to get into either the top 12 or the top 35.

Favorites

There weren't very many tracks on which Jimmie Johnson was forced to take a back seat last year, but he finished second in both Talladega races in 2007. The agony of defeat may have been lessened somewhat by the fact that his teammate and boss, Jeff Gordon was the driver who beat him, but rest assured he wants to improve on his record by one spot this week. Johnson already knows what the champagne tastes like in Talladega's Victory Lane after winning the 2006 edition of this race, and he might have had season sweep of his own that year if he had not been wrecked by Brian Vickers on the final lap of the EA Sports 500. He gave Hendrick Motorsports its first victory of the 2008 season last week at Phoenix, and he's already hungry for another.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s talent on the plate tracks is unquestioned. It was said of his father that Dale Earnhardt could see the draft, and Junior has "inherited the wind." Little E was untouchable from fall 2001 through fall 2004, finishing first or second in seven consecutive races, including a remarkable streak of four consecutive victories. In one of the two races he lost, it was his then-teammate Michael Waltrip that took the checkers. Unfortunately, when that streak ended, it was abrupt and decisive. In his last six attempts on this track, Earnhardt has failed to record another top-five and finished outside the top 20 four times, but that will change this Sunday. With Hendrick Motorsports power under the hood and a new lease on life, Talladega fans will witness his return to the front of the pack and only cruel lady fate can stop him from finishing in the top five.

Tony Stewart has a pair of victories on the sister track of Daytona International Speedway, but he's never won at Talladega. He's come close, however, with six runner-up results to his credit, including three consecutive near misses in 2005 and 2006. This is not a driver who is content with taking a back seat to anyone, and so far in 2008 both of his teammates have already visited Victory Lane. Meanwhile, internet rumors have surfaced that he wants to get out of his contract early to race -- and maybe partially own -- a Chevrolet with Haas CNC Racing. This driver thrives on controversy, and a determined Stewart is a dangerous Stewart, so unless he is already in the lead, the field had better watch their rear view mirrors closely.

Dark Horses

Ryan Newman admits that his victory in the Daytona 500 doesn't necessarily make him a favorite this week, but there are plenty of other reasons to give him a roster spot in the Aaron's 499. He doesn't have the same stellar numbers as Johnson, Earnhardt or Stewart, but he's a solid pick on the plate tracks. Last year, Newman got off to a rocky start in the 500 and then came back to sweep the top 15 in the final three plate races, which gives him a four-race top-15 streak on this type of track entering the weekend. Both Talladega races last year ended in top-10s for the No. 12 driver, and there is no reason to believe that will come to an end this week. After finishing last at Phoenix, he needs a good result to give him some breathing room in the points.

His teammate, Kurt Busch is another smart play on the big tracks. Like Newman, his season has gone progressively downhill after finishing second in the Daytona 500. On the plate tracks combined, the only time Busch has failed to finish in the top 10 since the spring 2006 Talladega race was when he failed to finish last year's Daytona 500 at all. He's been good in Florida, but he's been excellent in Alabama, and enters the weekend with a seven-race top-10 streak to his credit. During his career, Busch has finished third on four occasions on this 2.66-mile track, and he's rarely stumbled. In 14 starts, he has 11 top-10s, which makes him as close to a sure thing as you'll find on a restrictor-plate track.

By now, fantasy owners are asking why Jeff Gordon has not been showcased as a favorite. The cautious player should not only think of Gordon as a long shot this week, he might actually be a driver to avoid. How can one say that about the man who swept both races on this track last year? Because Talladega can smell desperation on a driver, and the No. 24 team is in crisis. They not only finished poorly during the last two weekends, they were incapable of making effective changes to their Chevrolet during those races. As a marquee driver, starting Gordon comes at a premium and limits your other options, so until he breaks through his funk, let him rest in the bunk.

The plate tracks are often kind to dark horses, but picking the right pony can be tricky. Dave Blaney finished third at Talladega last fall, and Robby Gordon finished eighth in this year's Daytona 500, so it often pays to pick a couple of marquee drivers on these tracks and then spread your wealth evenly among the rest of the field. One driver to watch closely in practice and qualification is Reed Sorenson. He had a great Speedweeks this fall, finishing in the top 10 in the Bud Shootout and his Gatorade 150 qualification race. In the big show, he garnered a fifth-place result, which combines with his 10th in last year's EA Sports 500 at Talladega to make him a very compelling dark horse.