1. Jeff Gordon sits 14th in points. Matt Kenseth is 19th. Kurt Busch is 20th. Which of these former champions is least likely to make the Chase?

Joe Menzer: I say Kenseth and Kurt Busch are just about out of it. They would need to not only get hot, but pretty much avoid the kind of trouble that has dogged them all year for all the remaining pre-Chase races.

David Caraviello: As much as I hate to say it, Kurt seems to be the odd man out here. Since Bristol, he's had four finishes of 23rd or worse. Have to wonder if the point swap with [Sam] Hornish [Jr.] set this group behind, and they're paying for it now.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, remember it was K. Busch that heated up at the end of last season, so don't count him completely out yet.

David Caraviello: True, Raygan. But was he in a hole this deep, this early?

Joe Menzer: Jeff Gordon still has a solid chance to make the top 12 by race 26. But I keep thinking he's going to make a big move upward each week, and it hasn't been happening.

Joe Menzer: Raygs, you do realize that K. Busch doesn't really clear up which bro you're talking about, right?

Raygan Swan: Ha!

Joe Menzer: Or do you just call the other guy "Rowdy?"

Raygan Swan: Good point, the weirder one? Does that help?

Raygan Swan: Yeah, call the younger one Rowdy.

Joe Menzer: I call the other guy the "Happy Gilmore of racing (read more)."

Raygan Swan: Ha! Joe, that is hysterical.

David Caraviello: Did I walk in on sixth-grade homeroom? Kurt is a cooler guy than most people realize. And Joe, you're right about Gordon. Something needs to happen there to get that group over the hump. They were in position for a great Talladega finish until the end. So they're showing flashes, but they can't seem to finish.

Joe Menzer: As for Gordon, he also was in position at the end at Vegas -- but crashed out in that terrible wreck (that was his fault, by the way). But bottom line is you've got to finish strong, or at least finish, to get out of the hole he has dug.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, Gordon has some work to do, but I want to see Kenseth get fired up again and ram somebody in the back! That was great.

David Caraviello: The Kenseth thing is a little mystifying. That group is built on consistency. It's their hallmark, and they're all over the board this year.

Joe Menzer: They have absolutely horrible, stinky, terrible bad luck. But sometimes that happens even to the good guys in racin'. Like when I got a speeding ticket driving to the race at Martinsville.

David Caraviello: Have to wonder now, with Robbie Reiser freed from his interim duties on the No. 99, if Jack Roush is thinking about reuniting a group that's had so much success together. Not that any of this is necessarily Chip Bolin's fault. You're right, Joe, the breaks have all gone against them.

Joe Menzer: Our Chubbs and Robbie Reiser all rolled into one.

Raygan Swan: Joe did you get that thing paid yet, or are you gonna fight city hall?

Joe Menzer: I'm fighting it, just like Reiser has been fighting his new job promotion. He no doubt would like to get back on the top of the box for Kenseth, but you have to wonder if Jack would permit it, at the possible expense of the other teams that seem to be flourishing -- and giving much of the credit to Reiser having a bigger overall role.

David Caraviello: I have always thought of Joe Menzer as the Robbie Reiser of NASCAR.COM.

Raygan Swan: It's a good idea, David, when Bob [Osborne] and Carl [Edwards] reunited they found success after the season. Carl missed the Chase without him. So if Robbie doesn't return ... no Chase for Matt?

David Caraviello: Not sure about that. That group's been too good for too long to close the door on them. But Kurt needs to start turning this around, or he'll need an even bigger comeback than the one he pulled off last year.

Joe Menzer: I have always thought of myself as the Happy Gilmore of NASCAR.COM -- or maybe I'm more like Bob Barker. After all, he kicked Happy's butt in that epic movie.

David Caraviello: Joe, I've always seen you in the Carl Weathers role.

Joe Menzer: Gordon, I still give him a shot. I say Kenseth and Kurt are going to be out like Chubbs' hand.

David Caraviello: Nice one, Menzer! And frightening, too!

2. Tony Stewart says he's exploring other options for when his contract with Joe Gibbs Racing expires after next year. Will the two-time champion actually leave?

Joe Menzer: After listening to him and both Coach Gibbs and J.D., I think it's a very real possibility that he will be leaving. It sounds like he wants to set himself up to own a team, and that isn't likely to happen at JGR.

Smoke and Coach

Tony Stewart has won 32 races and two championships in the Cup Series for Joe Gibbs.

• JGR wants Stewart to stay
• Caraviello: Any loyalty?
• Menzer: This year's Junior
• Business: Talk not cheap
• Stewart has offers, options
• Head2Head: Drive and own

Raygan Swan: I hope not. It would be painful to watch a two-time champ like Tony run mid-pack at a second-tier operation.

David Caraviello: As things stand now, I just can't see it. Stewart working for a Haas CNC team that struggles to just make races? Not unless his competitive edge has evaporated, and that hasn't happened.

Raygan Swan: But I can understand why he wants to diversify his portfolio.

Joe Menzer: In fact, J.D. Gibbs said ownership of a JGR car is "probably not going to happen." He did say they would be willing to discuss setting Stewie up with a team of his own that he could start from scratch. Stewart indicated that isn't really what he's looking to do.

Raygan Swan: With all of that said, I don't feel Tony is doing this to better his negotiating powers like certain groups are speculating.

David Caraviello: They want to keep him, they ought to consider doing something like Jeff Gordon did at Hendrick with Jimmie Johnson's car. Maybe Tony becoming name owner of their fourth vehicle when that becomes a reality. I guess they've already ruled that out.

Joe Menzer: Well, I guess you can't say they've totally ruled it out. But J.D. said "probably not," and made it sound like it's a real long shot at best.

Raygan Swan: They have a new favorite in Kyle Busch. I feel JGR loves Tony and will do what they can to make Stewart happy but he's getting older.

David Caraviello: I still don't get where this fascination with ownership comes from. He's always said he's had no interest in owning a NASCAR team, that his USAC ventures were enough to keep him busy, and that he didn't want to have to worry about 38 weeks a year after he finished driving. I wonder what changed his mind on that.

Joe Menzer: Somebody offering it to him is what apparently changed his mind.

David Caraviello: But do you go to Haas just to get an ownership share? I just cannot see that happening.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, and it never hurts to listen, Joe. If someone offered you a job in the circus like you've always wanted, you would listen, right?

Joe Menzer: Raygs brings up a legitimate point. Tony is about to turn 37 and has said he doesn't intend to drive much past 40. With youngsters Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin tearing it up right now, and supposed phenom Joey Logano waiting in the wings, JGR might be OK in their driver pool even if Tony leaves. Or better than OK.

Raygan Swan: Has anyone stopped to think maybe Tony is tired? His frustration last season was reaching a boiling point, and he said he was going to retire. Of course it was after a crash, but he said it wasn't fun out there anymore.

David Caraviello: OK, so he has one, final, four-year deal to put together. But you can't tell me this dude can't win races up until 40. You can't tell me his competitive edge isn't there. Hey, if RCR or Hendrick were offering something -- and they may be, we don't know all the players right now -- that would be one thing. But on the surface, everything here just seems strange.

Joe Menzer: The other thing that is hard to gauge right now is Tony's loyalty and fascination with the Chevrolet brand. Both he and the Gibbs duo downplayed it again at 'Dega, but you keep hearing rumblings that there is more to it than what they're saying, that Tony really does want to get back into a Chevy if the deal is right.

David Caraviello: I cannot fathom someone having more allegiance to a manufacturer than a car owner.

Raygan Swan: Good point David, and Joe Gibbs is likely the best in the business when it comes to personal relationships.

Joe Menzer: That's sort of what J.D. said, that at the end of the day, Tony's loyalty lies more with JGR than any manufacturer. I say at the end of the day in just about any deal, the loyalty lies in who offers the best deal.

David Caraviello: But isn't the best chance to win part of that deal? There's only one team who can trump Gibbs in that category, and they don't have an open seat for '09. Not yet, at least.

Raygan Swan: Watching Tony race for another team would be like watching Gordon race for another team. It wouldn't be natural. It would be awkward at best.

Joe Menzer: The bottom line answer to the question is that, while this may be a negotiating ploy to see what the best deal he can get from JGR is, he could indeed go elsewhere if someone tells him what he wants to hear.

Raygan Swan: True, but I think Tony is ready for a change, to be honest. He's 37 years old and still single. It's OK to look at something outside of racing. Quality of life. Tony moved home some years back and enjoys the simple life. Maybe this is his way of scaling back and looking to the next chapter of his life -- marriage, kids, etc.

Joe Menzer: Sometimes change is good. I found that to be the case when I got out of the newspaper business.

David Caraviello: There's got to be another player in this, a bigger fish. Because the Haas thing just doesn't sound like Stewart.

Joe Menzer: As for Haas, forget that. The whole Haas thing, in my mind, was leaked by somebody just to get this rolling in the public forum. It was an opening salvo and nothing more, signaling the entry of the real players in the deal. Now all the heavy hitters have entered the game, and negotiations all around have begun in earnest. Don't forget that at the beginning of the Dale Jr. negotiations last year, Ginn Racing was reportedly going to be a player.

David Caraviello: And we all know what happened to them.

3. Dario Franchitti has run in the 30s for most of this season, yet David Stremme was among the leaders last Sunday at Talladega until he was swept to the back late. Does this tell us anything about the No. 40 team?

David Caraviello: It tells us that the No. 40 car probably has more potential than what we've seen thus far, and that Stremme is a capable driver who deserves a ride somewhere.

Joe Menzer: I think it tells us more about Stremme's ability in plate races. Hasn't he always been pretty good in them?

Raygan Swan: It tells them better not sell out for a celeb name and compromise results and performance. I'm pretty sure Stremme never had to qualify on time last season. .

Joe Menzer: The fact is that Stremme had that car solidly within the top 35 all of last year. Then he loses his ride.

David Caraviello: It is one race, on a plate track. And it wasn't even a good finish. But the way Stremme ran up front all day shows you something.

Raygan Swan: Don't get me wrong, I love Dario and admire his talents, but these open-wheelers are getting pushed along too quickly.

Joe Menzer: But sponsorship -- or car owner Chip Ganassi -- or maybe both, wanted more than what Stremme gave them. And they wanted a name.

Raygan Swan: Like Stremme said last season after being fired, "There's only one Juan Pablo Montoya." And there's only one Tony Stewart.

Joe Menzer: By the way, Juan had a very nice run to that second-place finish at Talladega (read more). And have you noticed who is now in the top 12 in points?

Raygan Swan: Chip thought sponsors would be salivating over Dario, but I still think sponsors want numbers.

David Caraviello: And you're right, Raygan, Juan's success has opened the floodgates. Car owners think any capable open-wheeler can do it. We're finding out that's not necessarily the case. I would have liked for that race to have stayed green to just see if Juan could have gotten around Kyle. Would have been a hell of a final lap.

Joe Menzer: Not only is it not necessarily the case, but you could argue that exactly the opposite is true. Hornish has struggled. Dario has struggled. Jacques Villeneuve is long gone.

David Caraviello: Carpentier has struggled. Juan is the exception, not the rule.

Joe Menzer: And you guys are right about wanting to see last Sunday's race stay green for that final lap (although I know they couldn't do it). It would have been a helluva finish.

Raygan Swan: Juan does well at the put-your-foot-in-it-and-steer tracks. He did great, just like the Brickyard last season.

Joe Menzer: Hamlin said he was going to push Montoya just so long, and then jump out of line and make it three-wide to the finish. Might have been incredible. And I guess I forgot about Patrick Carpentier. How could that happen?

David Caraviello: But Chip says they're going to give Dario time, like they did Juan last year. But if you're Franchitti, and you see that reunited open-wheel series, you have to be thinking ... hmmm. Might be tempting at this point.

Raygan Swan: If I were Dario, I'd go back. As for Stremme, I think he needs a full-time ride. He's showing major results in the Nationwide Series.

Joe Menzer: Raygs, you're just saying that about Stremme because you just did a 1on1 interview with him (read more). I'm sort of feeling the same way about Jimmy Spencer (read more). He's 51. But he looks good, and knows it.

Raygan Swan: Ha! Joe, you're right, because man I could hear the eagerness in his voice. It's scary how sometimes in interviews you can become so sympathetic with someone's plight. And don't be shocked, guys. Stremme is a Hoosier. Have to rally for my Indiana boys. And Jimmy Spencer looks good? Wow.

Joe Menzer: For 51, yeah. Not bad. Even though he admitted he could lose 20 pounds. Hey, who couldn't? (Besides you two, I mean). Speaking of old guys, though, Ken Schrader is in the No. 40 this Saturday at Richmond (read more). He's 52. Makes Jimmy Spencer look like a youngster. Let's see how he does!

David Caraviello: Between that and Menzer's court appearance, it shapes up as an action-packed weekend! Joe, will you go all Al Pacino on them? "You're out of order!"

Joe Menzer: "You can't handle the truth!" Wait, that was Jack Nicholson.

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