Loop data suggests Hamlin has home-track advantage

Twice a year, Denny Hamlin returns home trying to conquer Richmond International Raceway -- his most coveted checkered flag.

Hamlin grew up about 15 miles from historic Richmond, and the Sprint Cup Series races the short track hosts are the two he pines for most.

He's come incredibly close in each of his four visits.

Hamlin almost accomplished the goal in his first try. During his 2006 rookie year, Hamlin finished second to Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the spring Richmond race, leading until Lap 348 of the 400-lap race. He led a total of 19 laps.

The statistics suggest the coveted trip to Richmond's Victory Lane will come sooner than later:

• He's led each Richmond race he has run -- for a total of 67 laps led.

• Only once has Hamlin earned a Driver Rating under 100.0 -- the fall race of 2006, when he scored a 97.1.

• He has given himself a fighting chance. Of the 1,600 laps run at Richmond since Hamlin joined the series, 1,570 of them have been in the Top 15 -- a 98.1 percent clip.

• He's there at the end. Hamlin's Closer position (defined by position with 10 percent of the laps remaining) has been in the top 10 in three of his four Richmond races. With 40 laps to go at Richmond, Hamlin is at least in the running for the win. In his four races, his Closer positions have been fourth, 15th, fourth and eighth, respectively.

Below is Hamlin's race-by-race log at Richmond:

To further build a case for Hamlin: He's got the hot hand -- four consecutive top-five finishes and six consecutive races with a Driver Rating higher than 100.0:

On the opposite side of the Richmond statistics spectrum is Juan Montoya, who joined the top 12 after a second-place finish at Talladega. It was the first top-12 appearance of his career -- his previous best points position was 15th after the fourth race of last season.

But if Montoya wants to stay inside the pivotal Chase for the Sprint Cup cutoff, he'll need to improve upon his Richmond performances.

Statistically, Richmond is Montoya's third-worst track. His average finish at Richmond is 33.5 in two races. Only at Michigan (34.5 in two races) and Watkins Glen (39.0 in one race) are his average finishes worse.

Below are Montoya's stats for the two Richmond races last season:

There's possibly more bad news for Montoya: Kasey Kahne, who is just one point behind Montoya. And Kahne, a winner at Richmond, is usually strong at the Virginia short track.

In Kahne's 2005 win, he never ran lower than fourth, notched a near-perfect Driver Rating of 147.9 and had 105 Fastest Laps Run.