Fantasy: Darlington

The Lady in Black has undergone a facelift, which may just give her a kinder, gentler attitude toward drivers this week.

Inevitably, everything changes.

Darlington Raceway has always been the most unique track on the circuit -- and perhaps in all of the United States -- in part because of its egg-shaped configuration, but also due to the condition of the asphalt. The course was abrasive, and tires began to wear out on the pace laps before the green flag was ever thrown.

Johnny Mantz won the inaugural Southern 500 in 1950 by bolting on a set of hard compound truck tires and outlasting the competition by nine laps, and ever since, tire management has been the key to success on the Track Too Tough to Tame. A driver who could reign themselves in at the start of a run would slow down less dramatically than an overly aggressive competitor and eventually take the lead. This track rewarded patience, and races were won by the smartest driver in the field.

Only time will tell if that continues to be true, but after a Goodyear tire test in mid-March, it appears that wear is going to less of a factor than before. "We did 40 laps on a set of tires and we didn't have any issues whatsoever," Ryan Newman reported after that test was complete.

If there is any "give-up" in the tires this week, it will have been manufactured into it by Goodyear and not imposed on it by the asphalt. "The cars are drivable," Newman continued. "We choose a tire that is not the easiest to drive. The more grip you give it, the easier it is to drive. And the closer you come to the safety issues, so we chose a tire that makes it a little bit harder to drive, but still drivable and hopefully it will put on a good race for the fans."

When in Doubt
Experience still counts at Darlington and a driver's previous record on this track has always been a strong indicator of how well he is going to run in the current race. Last year, 11 drivers finished within five spots of where they ran in 2006. As impressive as that would be in a 43-car field, it is even more so because only 30 drivers competed in both events, which meant that one-third of the field nearly duplicated one result with another.

Darlington is a rhythm track, and drivers are capable of stringing together long streaks of top-five and top-10 finishes and the best advice this week is to load your roster with teams that finished among the leaders last year.

Dark horses are rarely a good value at Darlington. The new tire may very well change that dynamic, but that is only speculation at this point.

The Favorites
Last week, Jeff Gordon battled long odds in the Crown Royal 400. He qualified poorly in the back half of the field, and things went from bad to worse when he was sent to the tail end of the pack for making an unapproved impound adjustment. That caused him to get lapped early since his Chevrolet handled badly in heavy traffic. The free pass rule eventually put him back on equal footing with the leaders, and while he was never of the same caliber as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch or Dale Earnhardt Jr., his ninth-place result was a relief in that it snapped a three-race skid of finishes outside the top 10.

Gordon won this race last year, and that came on the heels of three previous runs of third or second. Fantasy owners who don't believe he can keep that streak alive need to glance back at the record books, because Gordon once strung eight top-three results together on this track from 1995 through 1999. If he misses Victory Lane, it's not likely to be by much, and with the disappointing beginning the No. 24 team has had to their 2008 season, his salary cap is about as affordable as ever.

Traditionally, rookies are not supposed to do well at Darlington, but when they do it often signals a great career there. Hamlin finished 10th in his first outing in 2006 and then to prove it was no fluke, he came back last year to finish in the runner-up spot to Gordon. In fact, with the No. 24 Chevy spewing water from its overheated engine for the last 140 laps, it looked like the second-year driver had a great shot at winning. Despite the disappointing end to last week's race, Hamlin remains the hottest driver on the circuit with five finishes of sixth or better in his last six races. Cup drivers have an uncanny ability to focus on the positive, so Hamlin's 381 laps led last week are much more important to him than the 24th-place finish.

Jimmie Johnson was another rookie who tamed Darlington in his first attempt. He narrowly missed the top five with a sixth-place finish, and except for a single bad outing in his second season, he's never failed to crack the top 10. The last time NASCAR held two races at Darlington in 2004, Johnson swept Victory Lane and his last two efforts on this track have been top-fives. Last year, he was third and that suggests another top-five is well within his reach.

The Contenders
Greg Biffle showed a lot of promise at Darlington in his first few attempts, finishing 12th and 10th in his rookie season and 12th again during the spring race in his second year. As good as he was when this race was run during the daytime, however, he really began to shine under the lights. In 2005, he started third and won. The next year, he started ninth and took his second consecutive Dodge Charger 500. And last year looked like a continuation of his dominance when he started on the outside of the front row. Unfortunately, he slipped to 15th in the final rundown and that might be the only factor that keeps him from being one of the hands-down favorites.

Ryan Newman also gets designated as a contender this week instead of a favorite because he has not been completely immune to trouble. He finished 23rd and 34th in the last two fall races held on this track, but every other result has been a top-15. In fact six of his nine career starts there have been top-10s and with a top-five in both his first outing of 2002 and his latest race last year, he's shown durability on this course.

Red Flag
Tony Stewart admits being confounded by Darlington and it is one of only four active tracks on which he's failed to win. He hasn't even really come close in the last six years without a single top-five in his last nine attempts. During that span, he only has four top-10s. While his average finish of 14.2 would be respectable for a driver with a lower salary cap, it will not give fantasy owners a very good return on their investment in the Dodge Challenger 500.

Kevin Harvick has been extremely uneven on this track. With a 14th-place finish in his first attempt and two top-10s in his next two races there it appeared he would be one of the select few for whom is was love at first sight with the Lady in Black. He finished 40th and 36th in his next two outings, however, and two of his last four efforts on this track have also been in the 30s. With the momentum Richard Childress Racing brings to the course, he could beat those odds this week, but without a top-10 in more than three years, he is far more likely to finish somewhere between 11th and 25th.

Dark horses in general should also be avoided this week and rookies in particular. While drivers like Newman, Johnson and Hamlin provide proof that a first-year driver can find success at Darlington, the current crop of rookies has not come close to their achievements. Last year Juan Montoya was the best of his class and yet even he could not manage a top-20 finish. One of this year's group might finish in the 20s, but the vast majority of them will be outside the top 30, so look for experienced drivers like Sterling Marlin or Mark Martin to extend your salary cap dollars this week.