Roush drivers among faves to tame the Monster Mile

Last week's 600-mile marathon was rough on the drivers, but many think this race is tougher still.

At Lowe's Motor Speedway, drivers competed in the longest race of the season, traveling 600 miles in 4 hours, 25 minutes and 9 seconds, but that was on a 1.5-mile track with easy transitions into the corners.

Crew Chief Corner

Tony Eury Jr. says there's a trick to getting around Dover. "The key there is just to keep the car turning real good. ... The guy that can keep the balance of the car on the free side all day long is the guy that's going to be there at the end."

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This week, 400 miles on the rough surface, concrete, high-banked Dover International Speedway will exact a greater physical toll as G forces are magnified by the shape of the track and the steepness of the banking, and last fall it took slightly less than four hours to complete.

Back in the day, this race was 500 miles long, but in sympathy for the drivers (and to create a more compact TV package), NASCAR shortened it to 400 midway through the 1997 season. Don't let that fool you though: This is still a monster of a race and even the winner will have his tongue hanging out when the checkered flag waves.

In fact, a race at Dover has become so difficult to win that no one has visited Victory Lane twice in the last four years. Mark Martin started that streak in the Spring 2004 race and eight different drivers have won there. The list includes Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Martin Truex Jr. and Carl Edwards.

However, the streak of fresh faces could very well continue into this week as the list of those who have not won in the past four years include some of the hottest drivers in the field, including Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

Much like Bristol, Dover is a rhythm track. To go fast, drivers have to hit precise marks lap after lap after lap, and that repetitiveness can lull them into a false sense of security. If they relax, however, the wall will reach up and slap them and if a driver spins out on this track the course is narrow with solid retaining walls on both sides. There is no room for error, and field-stopping crashes are not uncommon at the Monster Mile.

Because this is a rhythm track, long streaks of top-five and top-10 finishes are not uncommon, but last year NASCAR threw a monkey wrench into the system with the unknown variable of the Car of Tomorrow. Only three drivers backed up a strong finish in the spring with another strong result in the fall, and they headline this week's list of favorites.

Favorites

After finishing in the top 10 three times in four races on the concrete high banks in 2006, Edwards got off to a modest start last year with a 12th in the spring Bristol race. He found his pace by the time the series rolled onto Dover, however, and finished third in the spring. During the fall, he won both events on the concrete courses in the Cup Series, and at the start of 2007 he posted four consecutive wins on concrete tracks in Nationwide competition, which earned him the nickname "Concrete Carl," and makes him one of the best fantasy options this week.

Biffle finished second in both races at Lowe's and he's hungry for victory. With a sixth in the spring and a second last fall, he is another driver who swept the top 10 at Dover, but his attractiveness is not limited to those facts alone. Since winning this race in 2005, Biffle has a worst result of only 13th and he enters the weekend with a four-race top-10 streak at Dover. During the past three years, he has an average finish of 5.8 and that is the best among all active drivers.

Martin rounds out the short list of drivers who swept the top 10 last year. His average finish during the past three years is a remarkable 6.8, which is second only to Biffle, but the driver of the No. 8 has been stronger, longer. Going back four years, Martin has earned one victory, five top-fives, seven top-10s and a worst result of only 14th in eight races. That gives him an average finish of 5.5 in four years and a spot on your roster.

Prelude to the Dream

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Of course, it is impossible to come to a track these days and not treat Kyle Busch as a favorite. Dover is supposed to be a tough on rookies, but one wouldn't know that by Busch's stats. He finished in the runner-up spot in both races of his freshman season and backed that up with two more top-fives in his last four starts. With the momentum of two victories and no finish worse than third in his past four outings, Busch is well-prepared to be the ninth different winner on this track in nine races.

Provisionally Strong

The Coke 600 was Earnhardt's race to lose, and that is precisely what happened. Coming up on traffic late in the race, Junior steered his Chevy into the marbles and slapped the wall, which might not have been too bad if he had not been immediately rear-ended by J.J. Yeley. The new cars are durable, however, and Tony Eury Jr.'s crew managed to keep him on the lead lap and in contention. It took a fuel conservation run to finish fifth, but that was Earnhardt's ninth top-10 of the season.

Truex should have swept the top 10 last season. In fact, if not for damage sustained in a late-race pileup on a restart, he would have been in contention to sweep victory lane for the first time since Newman last accomplished the feat in 2003. Drivers always seem to perform at their best in front of the hometown crowd, and this is as close as it gets for the New Jersey native.

A true dark horse might be found in Jason Leffler. He'll climb behind the wheel of the No. 70 Gene Haas car this week and both the driver and crew have something to prove. Leffler is auditioning for a full time ride in the Cup Series, and the team needs a strong showing to recover from heavy fines and penalties levied against them this week for a rule's infraction at Lowe's. Leffler has made only three starts at Dover, but they have all been respectable. Driving for three different owners, he's finished 13th, 25th and 20th in 2001, 2003 and 2005 respectively. He's definitely not a guarantee for a top-10, but as a part time driver, his salary cap will certainly be priced right.

Red Flag

Kasey Kahne has a ton of confidence after winning both the All-Star Race and the Coke 600, but fantasy owners might not want to climb on his bandwagon just yet. Few tracks were kind to Kahne last year, but Dover has been especially aloof during his career. In eight starts there, he's earned no top-fives, only one top-10, two top-15s and an average finish of 25.3, so prudence dictates leaving him in the garage this week while you wait to see if he has truly turned his fortunes around.

We red flagged Jeff Gordon last week and his fourth-place finish at Charlotte would suggest we were wrong. Don't let that fool you, however, the No. 24 was a 20-something car for the entire night and it was only by virtue of fuel mileage strategy that he finished that well. Despite entering the weekend with a three-race top-10 streak, Gordon has looked anemic since he finished second at Martinsville Speedway seven race ago, and until he can put together an entire afternoon in which he looks strong start to finish, he is too expensive to place on your roster. Last year's results at Dover don't offer a lot of hope: he was ninth in the spring and 11th in the fall, which is about where he'll finish again this week.