Last three Pocono winners heavy hitters for fantasy

Lately tracks on the NASCAR circuit have submitted to parity, with a different list of top 10 drivers in each season's events, but the same thing cannot be said about Pocono Raceway.

A handicapper hopes that he can look at his available data and find trends. At Pocono, one doesn't have to look too hard.

Last week's race at Dover International Speedway was difficult to predict in light of the fact that only three drivers swept the top 10 in both 2007 events. At Lowe's Motor Speedway only one driver finished 10th or better in both 2007 races, which left fantasy owners scratching their heads and wondering who would come out on top in 2008.

Even a cursory look at Pocono, however, reveals a stark contrast. In 2007, seven drivers swept the top-10 spots. Among the six drivers who recorded a single top-10 during the season, all but one of these finished 16th or better in the other race. The sole exception was Jimmie Johnson, who finished 42nd in June and fifth in August, but his poor performance in the first race was caused by crash damage.

In 2006, four drivers in the top 10 finished in precisely the same position in both races, including winner Denny Hamlin -- who also won both poles that year -- and second-place finisher Kurt Busch.

One reason for this remarkable consistency might be the juxtaposition of the two races on the schedule. Historically, these races have been run with about one month elapsed between them, making them the closest of any track that hosts two events. That benefits the drivers in three ways: Environmentally, the weather conditions are likely to be similar, setup notes are going to be fresh and repeatable, and drivers who had momentum on their side for the first event don't have time to lose it before Race 2.

That doesn't mean that this first race of Pocono's season won't hold a few surprises. Last year, two of the drivers to sweep the top 10 finished 20th or worse in their 2006 outings, but they both get an asterisk behind their names. One of these was Clint Bowyer, who struggled as a rookie on a track that is traditionally unkind to first-time drivers. The other was Casey Mears, who was competing in his first season with Hendrick Motorsports, so fantasy owners will want to heavily sprinkle last year's leaders into this year's lineup.

The Favorites
Denny Hamlin's streak of 24 consecutive races during which he had been running at the end came to a screeching halt at Dover when he didn't. Erroneously expecting Elliott Sadler's Dodge to slide all the way to the apron and unable to stop, Hamlin slammed into the Lap 17 crash and helped block the track. As more cars piled in, his day was done, but redemption is on the horizon. There is no better place for this flat-track master to come and reverse his fortunes. His sweep of Victory Lane in 2006 was not without some drama when he spun out during the second race and was forced to the back of the pack. He wasted no time charging to the front, however, and even with that minor setback, he has a league-leading average running position of 4.64 during the past four races. If not for rain last June, Hamlin would almost certainly have a perfect record of top-fives at Pocono, and he's almost a lock to record another on Sunday.

Hamlin's wingman in 2006 has his own history of success at Pocono, and is also in dire need of a strong run. Kurt Busch won there in August 2005 and he was the favorite to win in 2006. Finishing second in both events, he didn't miss by much and added near-maximum points to his fantasy owners' totals. He got revenge last August when he rolled off the grid from the outside of the front row, took the lead on Lap 1 and stayed there for the remainder of the race with only a few exceptions during green-flag pit stop sequences. He hasn't finished up front this year since the Daytona 500, which will have him affordably priced in salary cap games and potentially overlooked by your competition.

Jeff Gordon has been listed as a driver to avoid the last couple of weeks and he proved us wrong with solid top-five finishes. At Lowe's, his strong showing was the result of a fuel mileage gamble, but at Dover, he finally put together a strong run from start to finish -- and we said that when he did so, he would be a favorite once more. With four victories and 15 top-fives in 30 starts, Pocono is one of his favorite tracks and he's continued to run strong there throughout his career. He earned his first victory there in 1996 and his latest in last year's Pocono 500, so this is a good place for him to break his 19-race winless streak.

Provisionally Strong
Teammate Busch's dominance at Pocono is not Penske Racing South's only strong runs there; Ryan Newman has recorded some of his own. The driver of the No. 12 car got off to a rocky start in his inaugural run in 2002 and finished 32nd, but he rebounded nicely to finish fifth in his next two outings and win in his fourth attempt. After that, he lost the handle for a while and logged only one more top-10 in his next six starts. Two of those modest showings came in 2006 when he finished 11th and 18th, which meant he was not on many fantasy owners' radar screens last June. He nearly won the Pocono 500 and was actually ahead of Gordon when what became the final caution of the day fell. For all cautions except the one that comes out after the white flag waves, however, NASCAR reverts to the last scoring loop, which put him in second by a bumper. Newman followed that with a solid seventh last August.

Coming off his triumph in the Prelude to the Dream, Tony Stewart is ready to break his winless streak in Cup competition. He jumped out from a third-place starting position Wednesday night and led every lap on Eldora's clay oval and he'll be in a good mood this weekend. Stewart was one of the seven drivers to sweep the top 10 last year, but his accolades aren't limited to 2007. He enters the weekend with a five-race streak of finishes seventh or better, which proves he has the right stuff for Pocono.

Stewart won the 2003 Pocono 500 and the driver on his tail that day was Mark Martin. As a part-time driver, this veteran has hand-picked the tracks he wants to run and this week just might be because of unfinished business at Pocono. In 42 career starts there, he's sat on the pole three times, but never won. He's certainly come close: Martin has six second-place finishes and three more thirds, so he might not quit trying until he gets the trophy. One of his best opportunities to win so far this season came on another flat track in Phoenix International Raceway, which proves he can tiptoe around these minimally banked corners.

Red Flag
In general, rookies should be avoided this week. Among the 45 drivers on the Pocono 500 entry list, only six have recorded a top-10 finish in their first attempt. A couple of these -- Hamlin and Carl Edwards -- made the most of that by winning, but they are exceptions to the rule. Gordon was 28th in his first attempt, Martin was 26th and Jeff Burton was 22nd. These are much more typical results. This triangular track behaves a little bit like a road course, however, and most of the rookie class has open-wheel experience that heavily relied on twisty tracks. That will improve their results somewhat, but with only a handful of top-15s between them, it seems unlikely that a top-10 is in the cards.

Terry and Bobby Labonte will race as teammates this week and all eyes will be focused on them. The elder brother will certainly be in the show as the most recent past champion in need of NASCAR's provisional and he's going to be energized by his return. His younger brother has been a good dark horse candidate several times this year already, but Pocono is not likely to favor either Texan. Bobby was 19th and 30th in his two attempts last year, while Terry finished 39th and 25th during his last efforts in 2006.