Earnhardt looks for end of his road-course struggles

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- It made sense that Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s long-awaited triumph came at Michigan International Speedway. Prior to Sunday's race, Earnhardt finished in the top 10 in three of his previous four Michigan races.

Now the question is: Can the momentum change Earnhardt's fortunes at Infineon Raceway, a track at which he's struggled in the past?

A win would certainly be a surprise. In eight starts at the Sonoma road course, Earnhardt has failed to crack the top 10. He also hasn't broken the 100-point Driver Rating barrier in any of the last three Infineon Raceway events.

But there's a sliver of hope in the statistics. From 2005 to last season, Earnhardt improved with each race. Below is Earnhardt's race-by-race log at Infineon Raceway, the site of Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT):

One key statistic that might best document Earnhardt's Infineon Raceway difficulties is his pass differential of -38. In 2005, Earnhardt started 10th, but failed to pass a single car while being passed 19 times under green-flag conditions.

Last year's solid finish of 13th might have been even better, if not for Earnhardt's Pass Differential of -17. He had 61 Green Flag Passes, but was passed 78 times.

Because the track is so tight on road courses like Infineon Raceway, passing is at a premium.

Juan Montoya, with a pass differential of +28, was near the top of the category last year at Infineon Raceway. In fact, 11 of the top 12 finishers in last season's race had a positive pass differential:

If the above statistics hold true, road-course ace Ron Fellows may be a good dark horse pick this weekend. Over the last three races, Fellows has racked up a pass differential number of 75, which is best in the series. He's followed by Greg Biffle (58) and Denny Hamlin (51) in the category.