Stewart all the talk: Rumor mill, Chase debate, winless (cont'd)

2. Kevin Harvick is out of the top 12. Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer are hanging on. Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne are surging. It's getting tight at the bottom with 10 races to go until the Chase. Who will be the odd men out?

Josh Pate: Harvick and Bowyer. Both have been very low-key this season despite Bowyer's win. But the man that is in for sure will be Kenseth.

Raygan Swan: Well, with the decisions Harvick has been making, I say he's out. You all know Stewart gets hot about this time, so he's in. Kasey Kahne is in because he's an off-and-on season kind of guy, and this is his on season.

David Caraviello: I agree Josh, Kenseth has turned things around and will get in. But I'm beginning to wonder about Harvick. Those guys went from finishing every lap to not finishing in the top 10 since Richmond. Things just aren't clicking there right now. But of course, going sideways into Tony Stewart at Sonoma will do that to you.

Josh Pate: True. Burton is holding strong for RCR due to his trademark consistency, but the lack thereof with Harvick and Bowyer seem to be surprising given that these three are teammates.

By the Numbers

In six races, Matt Kenseth has gone from 22nd in the standings and written off as a Chase candidate to 12th and running like a championship contender.

• Complete story, click here

Raygan Swan: I could see Matt Kenseth making the Chase, but I could also see David Ragan as a surprise, guys. There are a few tracks coming up in this 10-race stretch where he could pull it out

Josh Pate: If they still gave that million-dollar award for the guy who finished one spot out of the Chase, David Ragan would be making offseason plans now.

David Caraviello: Bowyer ran so well so early in his Cup career, it seems inevitable that things are going to go backward a little, just like they have for other guys who shot to the top. And Kahne needs to show me more than his recent Charlotte-to-Michigan hot streak. I'm still not convinced that group has the staying power to hang in there.

Josh Pate: I am convinced of Kahne, and not because of his wins. I am convinced because at Michigan, he had a 15th-place car and came in second. That has never happened with this team. So if they can keep that rolling, they're in good shape.

David Caraviello: And with condolences to David Ragan, I think our 12 are coming out of the current top 13 in points. Especially with just 18 points separating 11th from 13th. There's the possibility for a lot of shuffling going on there.

Raygan Swan: OK, fine. But I'm not giving up on Ragan's chances. I said it early this season, and I'm sticking by my statement. And I want something green if he makes it.

David Caraviello: Raygan, you just like his name!

Raygan Swan: Yes! And I'm wearing the David Ragan T-shirt as well!

Josh Pate: Did you just re-up your AAA membership this weekend? You probably have one of those shiny reflective AAA stickers on the VW.

Raygan Swan: Hey, that helps, but he's also an extremely nice guy. And that's a good idea, Josh.

David Caraviello: The point margins are so narrow right now, nobody from 10th down should feel safe. We could end up with a quite surprising result in Richmond, like Stewart out of the Chase. Of course, perhaps that would allow him to get an early start on car ownership!

Josh Pate: Agreed. That's the area people should keep their eyes on, rather than the top. It shuffles each week, and if it continues to remain tight, Richmond will be entertaining -- or disappointing, depending on who you are.

Raygan Swan: Stewart still has Indy and The Glen coming up. He's making the Chase.

David Caraviello: Really? I don't know. There's something about him this year that just seems different. He's still feisty -- just ask Marty Snider -- but from the outside, he just doesn't seem the same. Maybe it was all that outside pressure with Eldora and the Indiana flooding, and of course, a major decision looming about his future. He's had a lot on him.

Josh Pate: I thought he would come back after Eldora was over, and he showed signs of it. Then crashed.

David Caraviello: He certainly crashed last weekend, through no fault of his own.

Josh Pate: Stewart driving for Haas would be fun to watch simply because it would answer the question of "what happens when you put a Jeff Gordon-type driver in a low-budget car?"

David Caraviello: Well, Josh, that happens every time I slip into a rental at the airport. And I'll tell you what happens: Pure driving excitement.

Raygan Swan: Ha! (Continued)