Stewart all the talk: Rumor mill, Chase debate, winless

1. Casey Mears to Childress? Mark Martin to Hendrick? Tony Stewart to Haas? Silly Season is in high gear, so do any of these potential moves make sense?

Raygan Swan: I would say Martin to Hendrick makes sense because Aric Amirola needs the seat time in that No. 8 car all to himself. But I'm not buying the rumor about Mears going to RCR's fourth car.

Josh Pate: Mark Martin to Hendrick makes sense due to his history of driving some Nationwide races for the team -- and with some pretty good success, mind you.

David Caraviello: I'm having difficulty wrapping my mind around the Martin thing. Doesn't he relish driving part-time? Isn't he having the time of his life? And now he's going back into the grinder, with the pressure of driving for Hendrick?

Raygan Swan: Remember, Martin has had some of his best experiences with that team, and always raves about driving for Hendrick Motorsports.

Josh Pate: I wonder what it is about "Mr. Hendrick" that makes all these old-school guys just go on and on about driving for him. Maybe he really is like a father figure, which one would think would be appealing to younger drivers.

David Caraviello: But Martin doesn't need a father figure. We thought he didn't want a full-time ride. And now we're plugging him into the No. 5 car? I'll believe that when I see it.

Raygan Swan: I was under the impression it was part-time again, and then perhaps Dale Jr.'s driver Brad Keselowski would come in and start his transition in the No. 5 car.

Josh Pate: Agreed on the part-time thing with Martin. But when you throw Keselowski in the mix, and Junior saying a "new car" in the Nationwide Series isn't appealing, it makes sense. But Mears to Childress? Look at Burton and Harvick -- both rugged racers. It's strange to see how Mears may fit in with that bunch.

Raygan Swan: Who is RCR looking at for its fourth car? Not Mears. Team owners aren't in the business of developing 31-year-old drivers these days, they want young guys.

David Caraviello: So Kellogg's is fine with the fact that its car has no chance of making the Chase? After a lean 2008? I'm not exactly buying that one, either.

Josh Pate: Who says Kellogg's will stay?

David Caraviello: Hendrick may lose drivers, but he doesn't lose sponsors. That contract is probably locked in for a while.

Josh Pate: I ask because the way the Navy folks frame it, they're investing a lot with Junior. And if Keselowski moves up to Cup, where does that leave the Navy -- which, by the way, has said it wants to remain in the Nationwide Series.

David Caraviello: The Navy, being a government-appropriated program, perhaps doesn't want to afford the Cup price tag. And if Casey is indeed on the outs at Hendrick, RCR would be a more than comfortable place to land. But regardless where he ends up, I feel sorry for the guy. He seems on the brink of his fifth program in as many years. That doesn't help a guy's career.

Josh Pate: Fifth program, fifth crew chief, fifth sponsor, fifth car number.

David Caraviello: Sixth crew chief. He had a switch right before Daytona last season.

Josh Pate: No wonder he struggles.

Fact and fiction

The rumor mill is churning at warp speed already, so Joe Menzer tries to break down what is fact vs. what is fiction.

• Complete story, click here

Raygan Swan: Yeah but they've all been strong teams. It's not like he's being switched to poor equipment every time, or has terrible crew chiefs.

David Caraviello: Well, that Ganassi stuff, in retrospect, was no great shakes. But not everyone is Kyle Busch. There are some drivers who just need a little time. Casey is one of them. But time is something car owners don't give anymore.

Raygan Swan: An entire season? That isn't enough? That's more than the average team owner is handing out these days. Hendrick gave Mears two seasons.

David Caraviello: For some guys, obviously one year is not enough. Look at Jamie McMurray and all the time Jack Roush has given him.

Josh Pate: The thing that gets me is that nobody has really tried to invest in him as a racecar driver with consistency. He just gets shuffled. Perhaps that's his own fault.

Raygan Swan: Yes he is a wonderful person and all but does not perform, and when he does it is sporadic.

David Caraviello: The Stewart to Haas thing is the big question. So much of this seems to hinge on whether he can get out of his contract early. And evidently, he's really confident that he could turn an operation like that around.

Josh Pate: That whole situation is so interesting because of the Haas team's past performance. Granted, with the Hendrick backing, the team has potential. But it's done very little with that in the past.

Raygan Swan: I'm not exactly happy to see Tony leave Joe Gibbs and go to a team where he could struggle for a while, but if anyone can make the quick transition, it's Stewart. And I get that he wants to take the next step in his career, ownership, but I'm not convinced it's really happening yet.

Josh Pate: I'm buying it. I'm sold that it will happen, and that it will happen before next season.

David Caraviello: You heard it from Josh Pate!

2. Kevin Harvick is out of the top 12. Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer are hanging on. Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne are surging. It's getting tight at the bottom with 10 races to go until the Chase. Who will be the odd men out?

Josh Pate: Harvick and Bowyer. Both have been very low-key this season despite Bowyer's win. But the man that is in for sure will be Kenseth.

Raygan Swan: Well, with the decisions Harvick has been making, I say he's out. You all know Stewart gets hot about this time, so he's in. Kasey Kahne is in because he's an off-and-on season kind of guy, and this is his on season.

David Caraviello: I agree Josh, Kenseth has turned things around and will get in. But I'm beginning to wonder about Harvick. Those guys went from finishing every lap to not finishing in the top 10 since Richmond. Things just aren't clicking there right now. But of course, going sideways into Tony Stewart at Sonoma will do that to you.

Josh Pate: True. Burton is holding strong for RCR due to his trademark consistency, but the lack thereof with Harvick and Bowyer seem to be surprising given that these three are teammates.

By the Numbers

In six races, Matt Kenseth has gone from 22nd in the standings and written off as a Chase candidate to 12th and running like a championship contender.

• Complete story, click here

Raygan Swan: I could see Matt Kenseth making the Chase, but I could also see David Ragan as a surprise, guys. There are a few tracks coming up in this 10-race stretch where he could pull it out

Josh Pate: If they still gave that million-dollar award for the guy who finished one spot out of the Chase, David Ragan would be making offseason plans now.

David Caraviello: Bowyer ran so well so early in his Cup career, it seems inevitable that things are going to go backward a little, just like they have for other guys who shot to the top. And Kahne needs to show me more than his recent Charlotte-to-Michigan hot streak. I'm still not convinced that group has the staying power to hang in there.

Josh Pate: I am convinced of Kahne, and not because of his wins. I am convinced because at Michigan, he had a 15th-place car and came in second. That has never happened with this team. So if they can keep that rolling, they're in good shape.

David Caraviello: And with condolences to David Ragan, I think our 12 are coming out of the current top 13 in points. Especially with just 18 points separating 11th from 13th. There's the possibility for a lot of shuffling going on there.

Raygan Swan: OK, fine. But I'm not giving up on Ragan's chances. I said it early this season, and I'm sticking by my statement. And I want something green if he makes it.

David Caraviello: Raygan, you just like his name!

Raygan Swan: Yes! And I'm wearing the David Ragan T-shirt as well!

Josh Pate: Did you just re-up your AAA membership this weekend? You probably have one of those shiny reflective AAA stickers on the VW.

Raygan Swan: Hey, that helps, but he's also an extremely nice guy. And that's a good idea, Josh.

David Caraviello: The point margins are so narrow right now, nobody from 10th down should feel safe. We could end up with a quite surprising result in Richmond, like Stewart out of the Chase. Of course, perhaps that would allow him to get an early start on car ownership!

Josh Pate: Agreed. That's the area people should keep their eyes on, rather than the top. It shuffles each week, and if it continues to remain tight, Richmond will be entertaining -- or disappointing, depending on who you are.

Raygan Swan: Stewart still has Indy and The Glen coming up. He's making the Chase.

David Caraviello: Really? I don't know. There's something about him this year that just seems different. He's still feisty -- just ask Marty Snider -- but from the outside, he just doesn't seem the same. Maybe it was all that outside pressure with Eldora and the Indiana flooding, and of course, a major decision looming about his future. He's had a lot on him.

Josh Pate: I thought he would come back after Eldora was over, and he showed signs of it. Then crashed.

David Caraviello: He certainly crashed last weekend, through no fault of his own.

Josh Pate: Stewart driving for Haas would be fun to watch simply because it would answer the question of "what happens when you put a Jeff Gordon-type driver in a low-budget car?"

David Caraviello: Well, Josh, that happens every time I slip into a rental at the airport. And I'll tell you what happens: Pure driving excitement.

Raygan Swan: Ha!

3. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart have a combined five career wins at New Hampshire, but none this year. Is Loudon the place where one of them breaks through?

Raygan Swan: If Clint Bowyer has anything to say about it, then no, but I'm going to say it's Stewart's time. In the last few New Hampshire races he's been the strongest.

Josh Pate: I thought we would answer that question last weekend at Sonoma, but Kyle Busch slid in and took it. This weekend could be very similar.

David Caraviello: I'm beginning to worry about Gordon. He seemed clearly frustrated at Sonoma that their good finish was by virtue of circumstances, and not because their car was fast. They seem to be searching a little right now, even though he's relatively comfortable in points.

Numbers can lie

Jeff Gordon has seven top-five finishes in 2008 and is comfortably in sixth position in the standings, but Gordon says this year has been a struggle.

• Complete story, click here

Raygan Swan: Yeah you can't count out Kyle, because he's good in New Hampshire with a win in 2006. Unless he decides to be a world traveler again on race weekends, Kyle will always contend for the win.

Josh Pate: I think once Gordon does win a race this year, he could potentially win multiple races very quickly. They're strong every single week. They just can't get past third or fourth place -- to even lead laps.

David Caraviello: Correct, Josh. But I'm beginning to wonder if their cars are capable of winning races, unless a Busch-and-Earnhardt-at-Richmond kind of scenario happens right in front of them. It's like they've been fast, but not fast enough.

Josh Pate: Right. And the constant complaint (oops, did that come out) is about how they can't pass, or at least can't pass for the lead.

David Caraviello: Yeah, I think this new car is a much bigger obstacle than anyone in that camp thought it would be. They're not bad, by any means. Jeff should make the Chase. But not being able to contend for wins has to be bothersome.

Josh Pate: It's got to be frustrating not to win. At the same time, third- and fourth-place finishes win championships in most years. At least they did before this whole bonus points thing. And remember, neither Gordon nor Stewart has won at New Hampshire since 2005. A lot has changed in that little time.

David Caraviello: Yes. They added those spike strips coming out of Turn 2.

Josh Pate: And the ramp.

David Caraviello: Man, that's one of the greatest innovations in motorsports history. What will new track owner Bruton Smith do to top that?

Josh Pate: That's truly where it is easiest to pass in the new car, so maybe you're right -- Gordon at N.H.

David Caraviello: I know it's the same old New Hampshire, but because Bruton owns it now, I half expect to see suites and flashing lights and a condo tower. I know it's not like that -- not yet, at least -- but that's what we expect from the man.

Josh Pate: That, or removal of a race. Which is something I cannot anticipate just yet due to their ticket sales.

David Caraviello: I don't think that's going to happen. They've sold out every Cup race in their history. More than 100,000 people flock to that place to see racing that, honestly, is not the greatest. But the support there is unbelievable. They should get a third race, not lose their second!

Raygan Swan: Wish they could take Pocono's dates. At least one.

David Caraviello: Dr. Mattioli isn't going to be happy with you, Raygan.

Raygan Swan: I know, and I should keep my mouth shut because I have to go back there in a month or so.

Josh Pate: Tracks like New Hampshire that receive that type of support from the area should indeed be rewarded. What's wrong with having a third race? It's happened before, so "we never have done that" won't work for excuses.

David Caraviello: Josh, I was joking, man.

Josh Pate: Seriously though -- why not? They sell tickets, which is more than most tracks can boast. California. Michigan. Pocono. Dover. Charlotte. How many tracks do we see that have two races with five sections of seats covered in advertising tarps?

Raygan Swan: I just can't wait for Kentucky to have a race so I can at least have one more within driving distance.

David Caraviello: A lot of tracks have seen empty seats this year because of the economy and gas prices. It will be interesting to see if Loudon suffers. That place is always jam-packed.

Raygan Swan: I'm craving clam chowder. Is that weird? I've never been there but I really could use some soup right now.

David Caraviello: Uh, Raygan, you know what they say about women and cravings ....

Raygan Swan: Yeah, and it's not possible, so don't even jinx me! But believe me, I'm sure Track Smack will be the first to hear the news!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.