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Jimmie Johnson is one of the best on flat tracks like New Hampshire.

Those strong at Sonoma should be up front at NHMS

By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
June 27, 2008
02:08 PM EDT
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Teams trade in the winding course in California for the one-mile flat track in New Hampshire, but first they have to swing by Charlotte. That's a trip of nearly 3,700 miles and it kind of seems cruel to make them run an extra lap in Loudon.

Races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have traditionally been 300 laps, but this year the marketing guys lobbied to add one more trip around the circuit and make this the Lenox Industrial Tools 301. A lot can happen in a lap -- especially on a short, flat track like this one.

A lap around the flat tracks requires some of the same skills that drivers employed last week in Sonoma. Despite the protestations of overly literal road racers, entering the corners at New Hampshire, Phoenix International Raceway and Martinsville Speedway demand heavy braking before turning, rolling to the apex and heavy acceleration on exit -- which is precisely how the drivers got around Infineon Raceway last week.

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That means fantasy owners have an opportunity to hold onto their NASCAR Sprint Cup regulars who performed well for them last week. It is also why a driver like Marcos Ambrose is getting a second opportunity behind the wheel of the No. 21 Wood Bros. Ford and could mean that the former open wheel rookies might have better than average results this week.

The Favorites

Further proof of the similarity of road course racing to that on the short, flat tracks can be found in the drivers who excel on both. Last week, the two drivers with the most road racing victories were heavily favored entering the Toyota/Save Mart 350. Despite qualifying poorly, Tony Stewart challenged for the lead late in the going and despite struggling early, Jeff Gordon finished third.

Traditionally, both of these racers have been incredibly strong on the short, flat tracks as well. Stewart enters the weekend with two victories, 12 top-fives and 17 top-15s in his last 18 efforts on this track type. In the beginning of his career, he grabbed victories on each of these three tracks in his rookie and sophomore season.

Gordon has four victories, 16 top-fives and 26 top-15s in his last 27 short, flat track starts and he's started from the pole seven times in that span. During his career, he boasts 11 victories and another 18 second- or third-place finishes to lead all active drivers. His recent record at New Hampshire is stunning, with a sweep of the runner-up spot last year and a third in fall 2006. Both Stewart and Gordon are still in desperate need of a victory to reestablish momentum and the driver of the No. 20 is clinging to the top 12 in points by only 18 markers. Like last week, these drivers will probably give you a little gray hair as they walk the razor's edge of the new car setup, but in the end, they are likely to be up front.

Dating back to his victory at Martinsville in 2006, Jimmie Johnson has finished sixth or better in 10 consecutive races on the short, flat tracks and he's won 50 percent of those. In that span, he's averaged a finish of 2.6, which makes him a must have driver in any game. The two New Hampshire efforts were actually on his personal low side with a fifth- and sixth-place finish in the spring and fall races respectively, but he was perfect there in 2003 when he swept Victory Lane.

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Finally, one certainly can't discount Denny Hamlin on this track type. He cut his teeth on the half-mile Martinsville Speedway and has always been strong on the flat tracks. In 16 career starts on these short courses, he has only finished outside of the top 15 three times and one of those was a 16th. Those few struggles are more than counterbalanced by his victory in this race last year and his win at Martinsville this spring.

The Other Favorites

Flat tracks require rhythm, and the drivers who excel on them often string together long runs of strong finishes. Ryan Newman took to New Hampshire immediately, finishing fifth in his first outing, winning in the fall race of his rookie season and earning another fourth the following spring. He's had only one top-five since spring 2004, but that was a victory in fall 2005. Last year, he swept the top 10 on this track and during his career he's failed to crack the top 15 only twice, which means that the downside of starting him is not very low.

On the backs of four results 30th or worse from Martinsville through Richmond International Raceway, Matt Kenseth plummeted down the standings to 22nd. He was slightly more than 200 points away from 12th, but the number of drivers he would need to pass seemed to be insurmountable and media pundits wrote him out of the Chase scenario. Fortunately for his fans, the team didn't listen -- or maybe they did and took that as a challenge instead. The week after Richmond, Kenseth finished sixth at Darlington Raceway and hasn't been lower than eighth ever since. Along with a mistake by Kevin Harvick in Sonoma, that streak allowed Kenseth to climb back into the top 12 by two points, but there is little risk of him falling out again this week. The No. 17 enters the weekend with an 11-race top-15 streak and all but one of those has also been a top-10.

Martin Truex Jr. did not immediately take to New Hampshire. He finished outside the top 15 in both races of his rookie season, but last year he completely reversed his fortunes to finish third in the spring and fifth in the fall. While he has been less than a sure thing this season with only four top-10s in 16 starts, that means he is probably flying under the radar screen for most of your competition.

Ambrose was a bumper away from making one of the most impressive Cup debuts in recent memory. Unfortunately, the bumper in question belonged to Elliott Sadler and he was sent spinning while challenging for the lead. He was shifting at the time and snapped the transmission, but this week could provide redemption. The Wood Bros. are betting his strong run at Infineon was not a fluke and will give him another opportunity at New Hampshire. No one expects him to challenge for a victory this week, but a top-15 could be in the cards and as a new entrant in most games, it won't cost much to find out if that's possible.

The End

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Fantasy Power Rankings

Short, flat tracks (last three years)
Driver Power Average
Jimmie Johnson 4.73
Jeff Gordon 5.76
Tony Stewart 6.74
Denny Hamlin 8.95
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10.58
Kyle Busch 10.76
Kevin Harvick 10.89
Carl Edwards 12.77
Ryan Newman 12.89
Clint Bowyer 14.12
Jeff Burton 14.36
Matt Kenseth 15.37
Martin Truex Jr. 15.44
Kurt Busch 15.98
Greg Biffle 17.80
Marcos Ambrose 18.38
Kasey Kahne 20.03
Jamie McMurray 20.16
Brian Vickers 22.65
Juan Montoya 22.77
David Ragan 23.23
Casey Mears 23.30
Reed Sorenson 23.55
Bobby Labonte 23.57
J.J. Yeley 25.48
Tony Raines 25.91
Johnny Sauter 25.93
Elliott Sadler 26.36
Dave Blaney 28.80
David Reutimann 29.14
Scott Riggs 29.51
Aric Almirola 29.57
Travis Kvapil 29.65
Paul Menard 29.78
Robby Gordon 30.88
Joe Nemechek 31.96
David Gilliland 32.36
Dario Franchitti 32.95
Regan Smith 33.77
Michael McDowell 33.94
Michael Waltrip 34.99
Sam Hornish Jr. 36.18
Patrick Carpentier 37.88
A.J. Allmendinger 39.41
• The short, flat tracks are New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Phoenix International Raceway and Martinsville Speedway.

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