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1. It's Indy time. While attendance may slide some due to the economy, competitors clearly fawn over the place. Does the Brickyard 400 even approach the Daytona 500 in terms of prestige?

David Caraviello: Daytona is without question the biggest race of the year for NASCAR teams, which spend a month getting ready for the thing. But the atmosphere at Indianapolis is unparalleled. Standing between those frontstretch grandstands is an incredible experience that Daytona simply cannot match.
Mark Aumann: From a historical perspective, nothing in NASCAR comes close. Darlington's Southern 500 started in 1950, 40 years after the first racing at the Brickyard. But despite the crowds and the hype, stock cars are still No. 2 there.
Raygan Swan: Certainly it comes close because it is such a pivotal race to the Chase, and it's Indy. It's hallowed ground for racing, but Daytona is where stock-car racing was born.
David Caraviello: It's strange -- the Brickyard is easily the second-biggest event on the schedule, but there doesn't seem to be that crushing pressure to win it that you see with Daytona. Maybe that's because Daytona makes a career, and Indy validates one.
Mark Aumann: For everyone but perhaps Tony Stewart, a win in the Daytona 500 is the pinnacle. Certainly, it's a "crown jewel," but if you ask the guy on the street who won the last three Brickyard 400s, I'd guess you'd spend the rest of the day waiting for the correct answer.
Raygan Swan: There is less promotion in the Brickyard 400, but I feel it's the most important race on the schedule to the drivers. There's only one trip a year to Indy.
Mark Aumann: Of course, if an average fan had to name the last three Daytona 500 winners, how fast would somebody come up with Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman?
David Caraviello: Oh, there's no question the drivers are in awe of the place, and it's easy to see why. There's not a better setting in American motorsports. You can really feel the history there. Incredible atmosphere.
Raygan Swan: The history, dating back to 1909, is what makes the place magical. In that sense, it is greater than Daytona International Speedway. And the Brickyard really helped NASCAR's growth and gave the sport some validation when it was able to come to the famed and storied yard of bricks.
David Caraviello: And I know people rip the racing there, but I've never had a problem with it. There are no restrictor plates to make it fluky. You've got to be on top of everything to win. And only the best go to Victory Lane.
Raygan Swan: Yeah I agree David, Indy is the true measuring stick of a team.
Mark Aumann: I think that's the most amazing thing about the Brickyard 400. There aren't any real surprise winners on the list. It's a "who's who" of the sport.
David Caraviello: As for the open-wheelophiles who still have an issue with it ... they need to realize the demand has been tremendous since day one. The city has fully embraced the series. And that all that NASCAR money helped fund Tony George's war to squash CART.
Raygan Swan: In its inaugural year the Brickyard could have sold out twice, right?
David Caraviello: So really, it was NASCAR that helped repair the Brickyard's most hallowed tradition, the Indianapolis 500.
Mark Aumann: I don't think that's been as much of an issue in recent years, since the 500 has regained a measure of respect. And there's no longer been any crossover attempts, on either side.

2. Indianapolis gets all the attention, but which event has the best chance of shuffling the Chase field between now and the playoff opener in New Hampshire?
Mark Aumann: The easy answer would be Watkins Glen, but I'm leaning toward Bristol. Last year, everybody played it very safe there. But it could be a whole lot different this time around.
David Caraviello: I look at two events: Watkins Glen and Richmond. The Glen could spell disaster for someone or reward victory to an unlikely driver. And Richmond has become 10 times crazier than Bristol in recent years.
Mark Aumann: Somebody like Denny Hamlin could either run up front all night, or have awful luck. And in his case, it seems to be both at the same time.
Raygan Swan: I would say the two tracks that could really shake things up would be Watkins Glen and Bristol. There are a lot of unknowns at those places.
David Caraviello: Bristol has become a relatively tame place as of late. Not that the racing there is bad by any means, but the disaster factor isn't quite what it used to be.
Raygan Swan: That's right, I forget about the new surface there. Well then, I guess Richmond instead.
David Caraviello: Yeah, Mark. It's hard to not think about that crazy spring Richmond race and the fortunes of Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. all intertwined. You wonder what September has in store for us. But of course, the Gibbs boys did learn in March that Bristol still has some bite.
Mark Aumann: If anyone outside of the Top 12 is going to make a move, they'd better be good at flat ovals (Indy, Pocono) and on the intermediates (Michigan, California).
David Caraviello: But Mark, isn't getting into the Chase more about avoiding bad luck? And Indy and Pocono don't exactly spring to mind when you think of tracks that can saddle you with an unexpected 43rd-place finish.
Raygan Swan: And something else that could bite, much like Martin Truex Jr. learned, is a race inspection penalty. I feel we might see at least one penalty that could crush someone's Chase dreams
Mark Aumann: Well, don't forget that Junior blew the tire at Indy and went from a top-five finish to outside the top 20. So it can jump up and bite you, especially since all of the cars are on the lead lap, it seems.
David Caraviello: That's true. And I forgot about how much the prospective Chase field was shuffled at Indy in 2006, when Earnhardt salvaged his playoff hopes with a late pit stop. Point to Aumann. But it just seems if history is any guide, that guys get very tight as the Chase nears, and they get in by being conservative. And then they win it, as Jimmie Johnson showed last year, by going all out.
Mark Aumann: Yeah, track position is so critical at Indy and Pocono. You may see a lot of guys willing to swallow a top-10 instead of going for the win. Big-picture racing and all.
David Caraviello: I can completely see that. It's like tournament poker: fold, fold, fold and let everybody else make the mistakes. As close as the bottom of the Chase field is, you could see a lot of guys playing really tight.
Mark Aumann: And the championship is more important than any one victory. So unless you know you've got the winning hand, you have to hold your cards and not raise.
Raygan Swan: Speaking of conservative, I wonder if Kyle is even capable of being conservative. His lead is nice, but maybe he will even have a more conservative strategy after Richmond.
David Caraviello: Kyle doesn't need to be conservative. He's in the Chase. And once you're in the Chase, you can't afford to be conservative. Jeff Gordon showed last year that top-10s aren't enough. Somebody is going to rip off a few wins and take control.
Mark Aumann: I think the top five guys in the standings are locks for the Chase. So they can afford to be a little less conservative. And Carl Edwards realizes he needs more of those 10-point bonuses for wins. I can see him charging hard for the next seven weeks.
David Caraviello: That's a good point, Mark. Maybe there's one guy who can't afford to play tight.

3. Right now, three drivers -- Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers and David Ragan -- are within 100 points of the final Chase berth. But does anyone outside the top 12 have what it takes to get in and stay in?
Mark Aumann: Just looking at the stats: Clint Bowyer's never had a top-10 at Michigan. David Ragan? Average finish of 27th at Pocono. The driver who I'd keep an eye on is Vickers. He has four top-10 finishes at Michigan and Pocono, and three top-10s at Fontana. And that team has gotten better as the season's gone along.
David Caraviello: I have enough faith in those RCR cars to believe that Bowyer can make a push. Vickers getting in would be a great story, but I don't think it's going to happen. This is effectively a 13-man race for 12 spots.
Raygan Swan: Remember David, at the beginning on the season I said Ragan will make the Chase, and I'm sticking by my statement. He has six top-10s and really turned things around after the July race in Daytona.
Mark Aumann: Still, he's going to have to make up 100 points on one of the four drivers near the bottom of the top 12.
David Caraviello: You're talking about the 2009 Chase, Raygan?
Raygan Swan: No. In 2008, David Ragan makes the Chase. Richmond is a good track for Ragan!
David Caraviello: Well, no offense to him, but I think he's too far back to get in this year. Gotta remember, the point swings at this point in the season are historically very small. It's tough to jump one guy, much less three or four.
Raygan Swan: Well, he could be a surprise winner at one of these upcoming tracks. Crazier things have happened.
Mark Aumann: You know, looking at the guys from ninth to 12th, it's hard to see any of them dropping out. Harvick's already had his share of bad luck -- and runs well at Indy. Stewart should have had three wins by now.
David Caraviello: OK, Raygan, so Ragan and Bowyer both get in? Ragan does, but Vickers doesn't? And which two guys drop out? I don't think two of the current 12 are falling out at this point, much less falling to 14th.
Mark Aumann: Kahne is excellent at Michigan and California. And Hamlin's good at all of the tracks from here until Richmond.
Raygan Swan: Kahne, I could see him dropping. Yes, they've improved this season, but still they're having a few hiccups.
David Caraviello: I mean, maybe Harvick continues his yo-yoing and is on the outside looking in after Richmond. Maybe all the distractions of team ownership take their toll on Stewart. But both of them? Not happening.
Mark Aumann: The more I look at it, the more I think we're pretty much set -- except for the order. And that's not to take anything away from Clint Bowyer. But he needs some help.
David Caraviello: Mark, I couldn't agree more. Clint is the only guy I think has a shot to crash the party -- he's been there before, he's gotten in and stayed in (unlike Ragan and Vickers) and he's only 27 points back. But that's it. Take the Chase photo now with the top 13 guys and just airbrush the unlucky fellow out after Richmond.
Raygan Swan: Yes Ragan is a long shot, and it's maybe a little unrealistic to think he can make it. But maybe he pulls out a win and continues to run in the top 10. And maybe someone, Bowyer, Vickers or Kahne, makes big mistakes.
David Caraviello: That's a lot to ask, Raygan. When you need four or five guys ahead of you to have trouble and come back to the field ... that's tough.
Raygan Swan: I know it's a lot to ask for, but I feel more disasters are looming.
Mark Aumann: Raygan, this is NASCAR racing, not knitting an afghan. You and your looming!
David Caraviello: Ah, textile humor!
Mark Aumann: So why don't we take the rest of the summer off and start up again at Loudon?
David Caraviello: Deal. I can work on my golf game, and David Ragan can get a jump start on that 2009 Chase berth!
The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.
| POPULAR ALERTS | ||||
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| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | -- | Kyle Busch | 2881 | Leader |
| 2. | -- | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 2619 | -262 |
| 3. | -- | Jeff Burton | 2590 | -291 |
| 4. | -- | Carl Edwards | 2509 | -372 |
| 5. | -- | Jimmie Johnson | 2494 | -387 |
| 6. | -- | Jeff Gordon | 2384 | -497 |
| 7. | +4 | Greg Biffle | 2318 | -563 |
| 8. | +1 | Matt Kenseth | 2317 | -564 |
| 9. | +4 | Kevin Harvick | 2308 | -573 |
| 10. | +2 | Tony Stewart | 2305 | -576 |
| 11. | -3 | Kasey Kahne | 2295 | -586 |
| 12. | -5 | Denny Hamlin | 2283 | -598 |