Smack: Serpentine tracks stealing series spotlights (cont'd)

3. Kyle Busch has two consecutive finishes of 19th or worse, and Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are closing in. Is Shrub still the man to beat for the title?

Mark Aumann: Yes. Since the majority of the races in the Chase are on intermediate tracks -- and that's where Kyle's been superior -- I still have to believe he's the odds-on favorite.

Duane Cross: Yep, he's still the one -- mainly because the Chase changes everything. Kyle knows he has the bonus-points cushion; the No. 18 team has no reason to panic.

Sprint Cup Series

Last five races

Driver	Points
Jimmie Johnson	777
Carl Edwards	724
Tony Stewart	661
Kyle Busch	651

Last 10 races

Driver	Points
Carl Edwards	1474
Jimmie Johnson	1417
Matt Kenseth	1388
Kyle Busch	1369

David Caraviello: Yes. He'll still start the Chase with a healthy lead on Edwards and Johnson. Now, if either of those guys catches or surpasses Kyle in wins, watch out. But I don't see that happening, as good as Kyle's been on so many tracks this year.

Mark Aumann: You can throw out the last two races for unusual circumstances. Indy was ... well, a disaster. And Busch was unlucky in a fuel-mileage race at Pocono.

Duane Cross: And if the Chase started today, Kasey Kahne would be another guy I believe would make some noise. He's capable of hanging with Busch on the intermediate tracks.

David Caraviello: It's interesting, nobody this season has really shown that week-in, week-out consistency we're used to seeing from a frontrunner. As good as Busch has been, he has the capacity to be all over the place. Johnson and Edwards are hit and miss. Even Jeff Burton, the personification of consistency earlier this season, has slipped a bit. All of which makes me think this really might be up for grabs once the Chase starts and the point gaps tighten.

Mark Aumann: You know, Tony Stewart's been looming all season. And he's a perfect fit for some of the Chase races. He's the kind of guy who could steal the title in his last go-round with Gibbs. And even though 40 points seems like a pretty good advantage, it's in reality only a 10-position difference in one race. Again, the Chase is all about survival. You have to be close by Homestead.

Duane Cross: Burton does just enough to finish in the top 10 -- and that's just good enough to finish second in the Chase. I wish Jeff would beat-n-bang a bit more; he's got the fire but keeps it suppressed for whatever reasons.

David Caraviello: But barring a huge finishing kick by somebody over the next five races, this is still Kyle's title to lose. Jeff Gordon didn't have this kind of advantage at this point last year. Of course, this is also about the time Jimmie Johnson caught his stride.

Duane Cross: I think that finishing kick is going to come from the points leader. Kyle could rip off two, three wins and really make this thing moot.

Mark Aumann: It's such a defensive way of racing, in my opinion. You're not trying to run well as much as trying not to have a terrible day.

David Caraviello: You're right, Mark. You get in the Chase by being conservative. That's especially true for the guys at the back of the Chase field. But Kyle hasn't shown that much conservatism this season.

Mark Aumann: In case you're wondering, over the last five races: Johnson 777 points, Edwards 724, Stewart 661, Busch 651. Over the last 10 races: Edwards 1474, Johnson 1417, Busch 1369. Matt Kenseth 1388!

David Caraviello: Gulp.

Duane Cross: Yet J.J. and Edwards have a win apiece, which brings them only 10 points closer under the Chase rules. But you've gotta like that about Kyle -- no holds barred, whether he's first, fifth or 15th. Just let 'er rip.

David Caraviello: Duane, that's why I think Kyle's style really fits the Chase itself very well. Johnson showed last year that you have to go out and win to take control of the thing. Winning is something Kyle knows how to do.

Mark Aumann: You can really put enormous pressure on the other Chase guys by putting together a string of victories. Look at Jimmie the past few seasons.

Duane Cross: No doubt -- Kyle knows how to win, and I think it will bode well for him in the playoffs. It bit Jeff Gordon in the hiney last year; he didn't go for the brass ring enough.

David Caraviello: Well, let's hope everyone takes better care of their "hineys" this time around. I don't think "back to basics" goes quite that far.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.