Smack: Three battle for 12th, three battle for title

1. Clint Bowyer, David Ragan, Kasey Kahne. Who gets in?

Raygan Swan: Hmm, this sounds familiar. In July I said it would be Ragan, and someone told me I was crazy and thought I was referring to the 2009 season.

Joe Menzer: You know what? I'm gonna say Ragan might shock the world and be the one to get in at the expense of the other two. And of course "Raygan" is going to pick Ragan!

David Caraviello: Bowyer. No question Kahne is the best driver in the group here -- no offense to Clint, but Kasey's body of work speaks for itself -- yet leapfrogging two guys and making up 48 points is going to be very, very tough.

Joe Menzer: Here's why I like Ragan: He's been building positive momentum the longest. In the last 12 to 15 races, he's been the most consistent of the three. And he's overcome some adversity recently, like wrecking during qualifying at Bristol but then coming back to get a good finish in the race.

Raygan Swan: Ragan and Bowyer both have an average finish of 15th, but Kasey has a 17th-place average finish and has finished 30th or worse this season at least six times. His wins are great, but the lack of consistency has hurt him.

David Caraviello: You charter members of the David Ragan Fan Club should enjoy it while it lasts. Because if history is any indication, Clint is going to get himself in the top 10 on Saturday night, never make a risky move, and ride it out. This race is a different animal. Guys get very tight, very conservative. That's how you get in these days.

Raygan Swan: Yes, I have a feeling Bowyer is going to pull it out. But if it were a race between Ragan and Kahne, I'd go with Ragan.

Joe Menzer: Wait a minute, "Raygan," are you now bailing out on your selection of your namesake? How can you do that? This is no time for waffling!

David Caraviello: Yeah, am I the only one to have made a definitive pick here?

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Raygan Swan: OK, I choose my choice, I choose my choice!

Joe Menzer: My choice is, as I stated previously, David Ragan. No disrespect to Kasey, but I think I would go with Bowyer next, then Kahne. I just have a feeling Ragan is going to get it done.

Raygan Swan: So what changed your mind, Joe? You weren't hosting the fan club member party earlier this season.

Joe Menzer: I like what I've seen from the young man the last 12 to 15 races. Steady improvement. Consistency. Dogged determination even when things haven't always gone right.

David Caraviello: You guys do know that Bowyer has three top-10s in four Richmond starts, including a win last spring, right?

Raygan Swan: Kasey has a win, too, but doesn't mean he's making the Chase.

Joe Menzer: Clint is in the driver's seat, in terms of coming in with at least a little cushion and all his success at the track. But I like Ragan.

David Caraviello: Right, but Clint doesn't need to win. Again, he gets in eighth or ninth and cruises, and the pressure is on everybody else. Hey, nothing against David Ragan. The kid has done an amazing job, given that he wrecked so many cars when he started out that no one thought he would last. But it's just hard to get past people in this final race unless they make their own trouble.

Raygan Swan: I agree Joe, Clint doesn't feel the heat and pressure like Ragan does, and I feel that is going to give him the extra edge.

Joe Menzer: Kasey has the furthest to come and, quite frankly, not the best track record of coming through when the going gets tough -- although he appears to be getting better at that.

Raygan Swan: Yeah Kasey's performance has been hit and miss. Either he is winning or finishing worse than 30th.

David Caraviello: Look at the track record for people on the outside looking in at Richmond. With a few exceptions, like Jeremy Mayfield in 2004, it's not good. Stewart, Gordon, Earnhardt last year -- none of them made it.

Joe Menzer: So are Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon unreachable -- or if they have early trouble are their Chase dreams in doubt? For that matter, lump Matt Kenseth in with those two. He's only six points up on Gordon in ninth.

David Caraviello: Gordon has to finish 24th, Hamlin 21st. So we should see some shuffling within the top 12. But as far as claiming Chase berths, it's effectively a three-man race for one position.

Raygan Swan: With Kenseth and Edwards inside, I think crew chief Jimmy Fennig and the Roush crew will work overtime on Ragan's car this week.

Joe Menzer: Should be interesting. I think at the very least David Ragan will make it interesting -- for us and for Clint. He will force Clint to finish well.

David Caraviello: At Richmond, it's always interesting. (Continued)