Smack: Three battle for 12th, three battle for title

1. Clint Bowyer, David Ragan, Kasey Kahne. Who gets in?

Raygan Swan: Hmm, this sounds familiar. In July I said it would be Ragan, and someone told me I was crazy and thought I was referring to the 2009 season.

Joe Menzer: You know what? I'm gonna say Ragan might shock the world and be the one to get in at the expense of the other two. And of course "Raygan" is going to pick Ragan!

David Caraviello: Bowyer. No question Kahne is the best driver in the group here -- no offense to Clint, but Kasey's body of work speaks for itself -- yet leapfrogging two guys and making up 48 points is going to be very, very tough.

Joe Menzer: Here's why I like Ragan: He's been building positive momentum the longest. In the last 12 to 15 races, he's been the most consistent of the three. And he's overcome some adversity recently, like wrecking during qualifying at Bristol but then coming back to get a good finish in the race.

Raygan Swan: Ragan and Bowyer both have an average finish of 15th, but Kasey has a 17th-place average finish and has finished 30th or worse this season at least six times. His wins are great, but the lack of consistency has hurt him.

David Caraviello: You charter members of the David Ragan Fan Club should enjoy it while it lasts. Because if history is any indication, Clint is going to get himself in the top 10 on Saturday night, never make a risky move, and ride it out. This race is a different animal. Guys get very tight, very conservative. That's how you get in these days.

Raygan Swan: Yes, I have a feeling Bowyer is going to pull it out. But if it were a race between Ragan and Kahne, I'd go with Ragan.

Joe Menzer: Wait a minute, "Raygan," are you now bailing out on your selection of your namesake? How can you do that? This is no time for waffling!

David Caraviello: Yeah, am I the only one to have made a definitive pick here?

RIR's big night

Richmond has always been a great racetrack, but David Caraviello says hosting the regular-season finale puts the venue in an elite group.

• Complete story, click here
• Numbers: Clinching a spot
• Countdown to the Chase

Raygan Swan: OK, I choose my choice, I choose my choice!

Joe Menzer: My choice is, as I stated previously, David Ragan. No disrespect to Kasey, but I think I would go with Bowyer next, then Kahne. I just have a feeling Ragan is going to get it done.

Raygan Swan: So what changed your mind, Joe? You weren't hosting the fan club member party earlier this season.

Joe Menzer: I like what I've seen from the young man the last 12 to 15 races. Steady improvement. Consistency. Dogged determination even when things haven't always gone right.

David Caraviello: You guys do know that Bowyer has three top-10s in four Richmond starts, including a win last spring, right?

Raygan Swan: Kasey has a win, too, but doesn't mean he's making the Chase.

Joe Menzer: Clint is in the driver's seat, in terms of coming in with at least a little cushion and all his success at the track. But I like Ragan.

David Caraviello: Right, but Clint doesn't need to win. Again, he gets in eighth or ninth and cruises, and the pressure is on everybody else. Hey, nothing against David Ragan. The kid has done an amazing job, given that he wrecked so many cars when he started out that no one thought he would last. But it's just hard to get past people in this final race unless they make their own trouble.

Raygan Swan: I agree Joe, Clint doesn't feel the heat and pressure like Ragan does, and I feel that is going to give him the extra edge.

Joe Menzer: Kasey has the furthest to come and, quite frankly, not the best track record of coming through when the going gets tough -- although he appears to be getting better at that.

Raygan Swan: Yeah Kasey's performance has been hit and miss. Either he is winning or finishing worse than 30th.

David Caraviello: Look at the track record for people on the outside looking in at Richmond. With a few exceptions, like Jeremy Mayfield in 2004, it's not good. Stewart, Gordon, Earnhardt last year -- none of them made it.

Joe Menzer: So are Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon unreachable -- or if they have early trouble are their Chase dreams in doubt? For that matter, lump Matt Kenseth in with those two. He's only six points up on Gordon in ninth.

David Caraviello: Gordon has to finish 24th, Hamlin 21st. So we should see some shuffling within the top 12. But as far as claiming Chase berths, it's effectively a three-man race for one position.

Raygan Swan: With Kenseth and Edwards inside, I think crew chief Jimmy Fennig and the Roush crew will work overtime on Ragan's car this week.

Joe Menzer: Should be interesting. I think at the very least David Ragan will make it interesting -- for us and for Clint. He will force Clint to finish well.

David Caraviello: At Richmond, it's always interesting.

2. Dario Franchitti is going back to the IndyCar Series. Is it the right move for him? And what's next for his car owner, Chip Ganassi?

Joe Menzer: I feel sorry for Dario. He had tough luck from the beginning this year. Just when he seemed to be showing some promise, he broke his ankle in that wreck at Talladega.

Raygan Swan: I think Dario made the right decision, and it was the least Ganassi could do, giving him another ride after failing to sponsor his NASCAR efforts. He could be in a position to win a title in the IRL with Ganassi, not so much with his old team, Andretti Green.

David Caraviello: Yeah, Dario deserves a lot of credit for trying to make this work. He took a big risk, and it didn't work out, but that's not necessarily his fault. Given what happened with the 40 car, I don't blame him for turning down the 41.

Joe Menzer: The thing is, I don't think Dario got a fair shot. He ended up not even having half a season to prove himself, what with the injury and getting the rug pulled out from under him on the car.

Raygan Swan: Let's just hope next season is without the string of sensational wrecks and Ashley pulling him from the car fearing for his safety again.

David Caraviello: Lord, the best thing about this is that Ashley-mania goes somewhere else. Some of our media brethren became a bit too obsessed with Mrs. Judd.

Joe Menzer: I think we should start Raygan-mania! Or at least Ragan-mania.

A quick visit

After less than a full season in NASCAR, Dario Franchitti has decided to return to the Indy Racing League driving for Chip Ganassi Racing.

• Complete story, click here
• Less than stellar rookie class

Raygan Swan: I like the sound of that Joe, let's sell T-shirts. And yes, like most of these open-wheelers, the proper long-term development wasn't in place.

David Caraviello: Yeah, Dario was a plug-in, which is unfair to him. Maybe car owners are realizing that hiring open-wheelers is not a replacement for driver development, which there's still not enough of in NASCAR.

Joe Menzer: As for Chip-mania, well, let's just say it's a lot hotter on the open-wheel side than it's ever been in NASCAR. That operation remains a mystery to me.

David Caraviello: Well, from everything I've read, he's supposedly wringing enough out of Target for two Cup cars. So he still needs one driver.

Raygan Swan: I vote for Patrick Carpentier. That way Chip still can wave his open-wheel flag for success

Joe Menzer: What happens next to the 41? What happens next with Juan Montoya? And is Target giving him enough money to do two cars the right way?

David Caraviello: You'd think Montoya would remain the franchise over there. As for doing things the right way ... who knows. Chip has his own ways.

Joe Menzer: I found it very interesting earlier this year when Juan blamed many of their troubles on trying to funnel too much money to Franchitti's car. But Juan also said then -- it was at Indy -- that he's in this for the long haul, or at least for as long as Chip thinks he can finally make it work. Chip is not the type to give up, but maybe NASCAR is not his thing.

Raygan Swan: I would love to see JPM at a first-tier team, to see if he could pull out some wins on some mile-and-a-half tracks. I realize the respect and loyalty he has for Chip, but if he's serious about a championship in NASCAR, I don't know if he can get it done at Ganassi.

David Caraviello: As for Dario, this is probably the right move. He was getting yanked around in NASCAR, and understandably he didn't like it. The interesting thing is that there are already some open-wheel types trying to paint this as a "victory" because Dario chose an IndyCar seat over the No. 41 car. But if anything, it illustrates just how difficult the transition to NASCAR really is.

Joe Menzer: I still say Dario could have gotten it done, under the right circumstances. By that I mean he at least could have become a competent, top-15 or 20 NASCAR driver. The problem at Ganassi runs deeper than who's driving, though, and that's obvious.

Raygan Swan: So is Tony still the only driver to pull it off David, or can we count JPM in that category?

David Caraviello: JPM has won a race. And JPM has shown the kind of long-term effort and dedication it takes. If JPM were in better cars, I think his results would be much better. But yeah, Dario never had a real shot here.

Raygan Swan: I think NASCAR should have a going away party for all the open-wheelers. At least a parting gift or two.

David Caraviello: Yeah, because this trend is officially over. Villeneuve disappearing, Franchitti back to IRL, Carpentier looks like he's being squeezed out ... Sam Hornish and JPM are on their own now.

Joe Menzer: Open-wheel mania. Come get some.

David Caraviello: Gone the way of the hemi engine and the Superbird.

3. Jimmie Johnson is starting to get that look in his eyes again. Can he challenge Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards for the title?

Joe Menzer: No doubt. Listen, I didn't do Smack last week because I had other, more pressing engagements. But didn't I tell y'all two weeks ago that J.J. would get back in it?

David Caraviello: It's Jimmie time, people. Remember, he took control of things last year by winning at Fontana and Richmond, and never looked back. Kyle and Carl get too caught up in one another, look out.

Raygan Swan: He certainly is back and so cool and collected, unlike Kyle and Carl. Kyle and Carl are in each other's heads, but Jimmie, he's on his own and poised for more dominance.

David Caraviello: Joe, what more pressing engagements could you possibly had?

Three's company

Twelve drivers may make the Chase, but Dave Rodman says this year's version is down to three.

• Complete story, click here
• Menzer: Three-peat possible
• Pate: Johnson Chase-ready
• Video: Richmond Preview

Joe Menzer: I had to paint my shed out back. Just don't tell the boss. Jimmie is the two-time defending champ eyeing what likely will be a once-in-a-lifetime shot at making history -- becoming only the second driver in history to win three titles in a row. That's motivation, man.

David Caraviello: You and all your projects. The shed. The full basketball court. The man garage. Where do you get the time?

Joe Menzer: To work, you mean? It's hard to squeeze you guys in sometimes, I'll admit.

Raygan Swan: He has lots of soldiers helping him out.

David Caraviello: That's why Joe has so many kids!

Joe Menzer: You talking about me? Or Jimmie with Chad Knaus and his crew?

Raygan Swan: You!

Joe Menzer: Yeah, well, I hope Jimmie is getting more work out of Chad and his No. 48 gang than I am out of my four kids lately!

David Caraviello: I will agree with what our colleague Dave Rodman wrote the other day -- this bad boy is a three-man race, barring anyone else making an unforeseen run. No one else has shown any ability to challenge Kyle, Carl, and Jimmie.

Joe Menzer: But Jimmie is squarely in the mix, and building momentum at the right time (that was for Carl, who doesn't believe in momentum but I know he reads Track Smack).

David Caraviello: Carl reads Track Smack? You know, I've always liked that Carl Edwards.

Raygan Swan: Yes he does, and has the memory of an elephant, that boy!

Joe Menzer: He likes it when I write "feel-good" pieces. Well, he can feel good about his Chase chances, but Kyle won't be easy to catch and Jimmie is coming. It's going to be great. Does anyone else have a chance, or will it be the three-man race everyone seems to think?

David Caraviello: Who else is going to challenge them? Burton and Earnhardt have tailed off after great starts. Gordon is clearly struggling. Guys like Hamlin, Stewart, Harvick and Kenseth have been all over the place. Only three teams in my opinion have shown that they have what it takes to win multiple races in the Chase, which is what it takes to win the title. And that's the three teams up front.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, Carl is my pick for the Cup championship, and he can eat all the damn salads he wants! Did you hear Kyle's remarks about In and Out Burger? He said he and Carl are BFFs and they were going to get In and Out Burger. Then he said no, wait, he doesn't eat that stuff, we'll get salads. He's just jealous. Kyle doesn't have visible abs.

Joe Menzer: Ah. Well, likewise I will take the salad over the burger every time. But I like a side of fries with that.

Raygan Swan: Like a Big-Mac with a Diet Coke, right Joe?

David Caraviello: Man, an In and Out burger sounds good right now. Maybe I should stock up on a few before the hurricane hits.

Joe Menzer: Yes, the diet of champions -- or at least journalists!

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers