After one week, the early Chase advantage goes to ...

1. After Round 1 of the Chase, does anyone have an advantage? Is Carl Edwards now the favorite? And how big of a hole does Kyle Busch have to dig himself out of?

Dave Rodman: I'm into beating dead horses these days, since I wrote about it the other day. Look at what Johnson and Edwards did to Busch's erstwhile advantage in two races. He is not only nowhere near out -- he's fired up! And we know a fired-up Kyle Busch is damned good viewing.

Bill Kimm: I wouldn't say Carl is the favorite, but he's definitely one of a couple of drivers who are safe bets. As for Busch, he has a 74-point hole to climb out of -- not impossible, but not likely, either.

David Caraviello: I've always thought this was Kyle's championship to lose, and that somebody had to get past him before anybody else could be considered the favorite. Dover looms huge -- if the No. 18 doesn't rebound, the picture may have changed.

Bill Kimm: It's gut-check time for Busch and the 18 team. Sunday we find out if Kyle is ready and mature enough to be the champion.

David Caraviello: But if I had to pick somebody right now, based on where they are coming out of Loudon -- which is ridiculous, of course, given that it's just one race -- I'd go with Johnson. They've been here before. They know how to win this.

Dave Rodman: Of course it's a race-by-race situation now. Matt Kenseth, even, is not out of it, though he's more looking at a top five at best. But each opportunity that goes by the board strengthens the leaders and weakens the Chasers.

Bill Kimm: Come on, Dave. You can't look me in the eye and say at 177 points back Kenseth can still win this thing. No way.

David Caraviello: No one is out of it yet. Johnson was like 180 points back after Talladega two years ago and still won it. Anything can happen.

Bill Kimm: Kenseth is not Jimmie Johnson!

David Caraviello: Kimm, I realize you're a young whippersnapper, but Kenseth is the original Mr. Consistency. If you don't think he can rip off nine consecutive top-10s, you're kidding yourself.

Dave Rodman: Very difficult, but possible. Highly unlikely, but we've seen crazy stuff happen. But again, as we've said right along, this is now the best of the best -- eight in the Chase finished in the top 10 at New Hampshire -- so to leapfrog all those bodies probably ain't gonna happen. But he could get back to the top five. I still love the way Matt continues to proclaim "our cars aren't very good" and yet he continues to notch up the finishes. You gotta love the silent assassin.

Bill Kimm: Caraviello, Matt doesn't have the killer mentality to win the Chase 177 points down. Jimmie Johnson put together a string of five consecutive top-two finishes that season to win the title. No way Kenseth even comes close to that.

David Caraviello: Too bad this isn't last week, when we could summon Kenseth from the green room to refute Mr. Kimm.

Bill Kimm: Bring him on. I think he would agree with me that he isn't a threat.

Dave Rodman: I'd agree that the teams that have shown the ability to do that are limited this season. Johnson's, of course, based on past and present history, and the Busch and Edwards crews from this season.

David Caraviello: Hey, we get through Kansas and he's still buried, I might agree with you. But nobody is out of this yet. Crazy things have happened in this deal.

Bill Kimm: Put the astrick by Kenseth's name -- * = eliminated.

David Caraviello: When I find out what an "astrick" is, I will. An asterisk, you mean?

Bill Kimm: Spelling was never my strong suit.

Dave Rodman: Race-by-race the odds are gonna change. Matt is good at Dover, so I see a comeback brewing.

Bill Kimm: I love you guys and your positive vibes right now. Delusional, but I like it! You know who is good at Dover -- Carl Edwards. This could be a huge week for him.

David Caraviello: And as for Busch, it's important to remember that what happened last week really wasn't a result of setup or driver. They had a freakish part break, and everything spiraled from there. That was no indication of how strong they really are.

Dave Rodman: But as I also said the other day -- you gotta like a system that puts 11 guys well and truly in the mix right now. I got prematurely called to a little medical procedure the other day before I could do the math, but someone did, and back in the day, a 103-point margin at this point has only been overtaken four times. I'll take the Chase format over that 11 years out of 10. Of course, I forgot to mention that under the previous system, Busch would have a 103-point edge right now.

David Caraviello: But man, to work seven months toward this and have it all basically wiped out in one day ... that's brutal. That's borderline unfair.

Bill Kimm: Kyle is by no means out of it, but again, it comes down to maturity. Can he overcome adversity? He hasn't had to do it really this season, so this is huge for him.

Dave Rodman: Dover will be a critical statement of how the JGR 18 will handle the Chase, and the current turn of events -- since they won there in June. I'd say they'll be tight and tough.

David Caraviello: But still, if you had to pick somebody right now, who is it?

Bill Kimm: It's the safe pick, but Jimmie.

David Caraviello: Yeah. Can't argue with that.

Dave Rodman: Jimmie Johnson. I wrote more than a year ago, I think, that more than anyone else -- Gordon, Stewart, anyone -- he had the best chance to rip off titles, en masse (Rodman: With Johnson, expect more). I haven't changed that opinion. He is the chief threat to The King's record, which was so ably tied by Big E.

2. Once again the garage is awash in talk of merger mania, with the Gillett Evernham, Chip Ganassi, Bill Davis and Michael Waltrip teams all said to be in the mix. Who would benefit the most if any of this came to fruition?

Dave Rodman: Wow. Talk about a science project! I never blew anything up in chem lab, but you're talking some potential bombs there.

David Caraviello: Well, we should say off the bat that the head of Dodge motorsports basically said a reported GEM-Bill Davis alliance isn't going to happen (read more). Manufacturer affiliations will make any of this difficult.

Bill Kimm: Bill Davis would benefit -- because he would be out of the Cup Series and therefore saving a ton of money. The last thing GEM or Ganassi need are more cars!

GEM to four cars?

Rumors are swirling about Gillett Evernham Motorsports potentially partnering with another organization. Bill Kimm and Raygan Swan debate Head2Head if it's a good idea.

• Complete story, click here

David Caraviello: But somebody's going to get more cars if any of this goes down. GEM says it wants a fourth. Bill Davis has been talking about reactivating its second car all season. You'd assume Ganassi would like to go back to three.

Dave Rodman: To a certain degree, it's somewhat tough to figure. You've got Ganassi, which is absolutely excelling in a couple other series, but struggling in Cup. Bill Davis Racing has been stellar in the Truck Series for years, but struggling in Cup.

Bill Kimm: If Bill Davis can barely keep one car in the top 35, what is that second car gonna do? I don't understand the mindset of, when you're struggling with what you have, let's add more. Makes no sense to me. If you have that many resources at your disposal for a new team and you're struggling with what you have, then you are a bad owner.

Dave Rodman: GEM has been the best in Cup, but they've had trouble finishing the deal, as it were. And I've repeatedly said that MWR's improvement this season has been significant. If you could merge the best attributes of two pairs and make them work, there'd be some winners.

David Caraviello: But you have one Toyota and one Dodge, and somebody's gotta give there.

Dave Rodman: With the manufacturer alliances, it's hard to see anything but GEM/Ganassi and Bill Davis/MWR playing out.

David Caraviello: What would make the most sense, given the manufacturer limitations, is some kind of Ganassi/GEM alliance. But that would mean somebody having to take a backseat, and the egos involved are too big for that.

Bill Kimm: Great point -- what would that team be called? I'm pretty sure George Gillett didn't get into the sport only to see his team turn into Ganassi Racing.

Dave Rodman: On the Dodge side, I think that would mean one four-car team. For those two Toyota groups -- gosh. Do they have sponsorship for two cars between them in 2009? Pardon me, but I ain't thinking too clearly today.

David Caraviello: But from a practical sense ... right now GEM has three drivers for 2009, and Ganassi has one. Boom, it's a four-car Dodge team. And a pretty good one, too. But GEM says it wants to be a four-car team. And Chip said he has enough sponsor money for two cars. Those aspirations, realistic or not, blow the deal.

Bill Kimm: How do you figure pretty good? Kahne is too up and down, Sadler is never a factor, Sorenson hasn't proven himself worthy and Montoya -- well he is kind of the X-factor in all of this.

Dave Rodman: If you could line up all the personnel in the correct slots, potentially it is so. But both organizations have distinctly under-performed, at least on a consistent basis.

David Caraviello: And as for the Waltrip group -- Dave is right, they have run better than people have given them credit for. But the sponsorship situation throughout the sport is so bleak right now, expansion is very difficult.

Dave Rodman: I can't imagine either group would want to be stubborn enough to spread their butter thinner -- rather than marshaling all their resources for four bad-ass combinations. They have four drivers who are all proven winners, somewhere, so the challenge seems to be to get them in the best position to win in Cup.

Bill Kimm: David, you and I could be in Michael Waltrip's cars this year and run better than they did last year. They had nowhere to go but up.

David Caraviello: Well, Bill, I can tear it up on EA NASCAR 2008.

Bill Kimm: As can I, my man ... as can I.

Dave Rodman: Glad you didn't include me in that assessment. Then again, a Cup car ain't a go-kart, either.

David Caraviello: The only thing Kimm has been running to lately is the dictionary.

3. Jay Frye has turned down an offer from Stewart-Haas Racing to remain as vice president of Red Bull Racing Team. So that prompts a natural question: Which of the two organizations will be better next year?

Bill Kimm: Great question, and a hard one to answer. I'm going to say Stewart-Haas, though, just because I'm not sure who is going to be in the No. 84 and with Smoke and Newman, that's a pretty solid 1-2 punch.

David Caraviello: Red Bull. As great a driver as Stewart is, and as solid a driver as Newman has been, that Red Bull team is the big up-and-comer in the sport right now. Vickers should contend for a Chase berth next season.

Dave Rodman: Whether or not you take into account what the advancement of Scott Speed will mean to Red Bull Racing, I think the bulls will be better for the season next year. I bet Brian Vickers could make the Chase, whereas I think Stewart-Haas will struggle too much early to come back.

Still Bull riding

Jay Frye has signed a multi-year contract extension with Red Bull Racing Team to remain vice president and general manager of its Sprint Cup Series operation.

• Complete story, click here

Bill Kimm: Two drivers contending for the Chase is better than one, David.

David Caraviello: I didn't say Stewart-Haas will have two drivers in the Chase. Right now, we don't even know if they're going to have two drivers in the top 35.

Bill Kimm: Are you crazy? First you say GEM a pretty good team and now you are telling me that Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman are going to struggle to stay in the top 35?

David Caraviello: Ryan Newman can't make the Chase in a Penske car, yet you're penciling him into it in one that's currently 34th in points?

Dave Rodman: I'm worried about the chemical balance on not only that second team for Stewart-Haas, but also how well Tony will operate with an engineer running his deal. I hope it's obvious that's not a knock on any individual, but Zippy is an old-school crew chief who's made great adjustments to keep pace with current events.

Bill Kimm: Ryan Newman came close to making the Chase in a Penske car, but Dodge is a sub-par manufacturer. Put him in a Chevy owned by Tony Stewart -- yes, he will contend for the Chase.

David Caraviello: Kimm, your knee-jerk reactions are giving away your political tendencies. First, I never said GEM is a pretty good team. I said merge all their stuff with all of Chip's stuff, and you could have a pretty good team. And second, I don't think those Stewart-Haas cars are going to exactly slay people right off the bat.

Dave Rodman: Bill, I can't believe you're still beating that "Dodge has been bypassed" drum. Not true -- and there's been a severe imbalance for Ryan Newman since the Matt Borland heydays, so I'd make no guarantees there.

Bill Kimm: Dodge is not a strong manufacturer in the sport -- why don't people see that? Yes, Kasey won two races and yes they had a good Daytona 500 -- but other than that, what has the manufacturer done?

Dave Rodman: And we have to see what the owner point dynamic is for them. Scott Riggs has done a workmanlike job of getting one Haas CNC car back into the top 35, so if Newman gets those points and Stewart leans on his past champion status, they may be OK, relatively speaking.

David Caraviello: But man, Dave, those cars are going to have to be a lot better to reach the immediate goals Stewart -- and Bill Kimm, evidently -- have for them. And I just don't think that's a one-year turnaround.

Bill Kimm: Dave -- Newman is too good a qualifier to not make races, and I wouldn't be surprised if Smoke still has five past champion provisionals in his back pocket at the end of the season.

David Caraviello: That's fine. That gets them into races. But history shows us that teams that have to work just to get in don't fare very well once the event starts.

Dave Rodman: The stats show Dodge has been best of all on the superspeedways. And that they have been beset by the worst luck and happenstance of anyone, as well. The Dodge boys told me that, but I see no reason to doubt them.

Bill Kimm: Ha! Dave buying in to the PR hype -- hopefully you don't select our next president that way!

David Caraviello: Hey Bill, last we checked, you're the one standing next to fake columns in a football stadium. But I digress ...

Dave Rodman: DC, I've said since the beginning that Stewart would be no magician -- and that they would take a beating for some period at the beginning of the season. He's done some good things, but the jury is still out. And Jay opting to stay at Red Bull, I think, is a very telling statement.

Bill Kimm: Why? Because things are turning around at Red Bull and he wants to enjoy the fruits of his labor?

David Caraviello: Jay's done a phenomenal job. Executive of the year, in my opinion. A.J. has improved dramatically and they have someone who might be the next Kyle Busch -- Scott Speed -- waiting in the wings.

Bill Kimm: Exactly, who wants to leave that?

David Caraviello: It's a good situation. No astricks needed.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.