Smack: 'Dega dilemma and Johnson's Chase mastery (cont'd)

3. Kasey Kahne won the spring race at Lowe's Motor Speedway, where NASCAR competes this week. What are the odds a non-Chase driver wins one of the remaining Chase events?

David Caraviello: Even though we nearly had one last Sunday, I still say the odds are pretty low. These Chase guys have to be at the front of the field nowadays. Johnson has set the bar that high.

Duane Cross: I think there is a high probability -- Texas and Phoenix come to mind.

Joe Menzer: Oh, I think one will pop up somewhere. Maybe two. What about Homestead?

Duane Cross: Biffle is my bet for Homestead; he's strong and will be back on the beam by then.

Joe Menzer: Of course the last four races at Homestead have been won by Biffle (three times) and Kenseth (once), so maybe that's not where it will happen.

David Caraviello: Homestead might be the one. I can foresee a scenario where the Chase leader is taking it easy in the middle of the pack, and someone from outside the playoff takes the win. But too many of the Chase guys are too good at too many of the remaining tracks. And again -- they have to be up front to have any chance, because they know that's where Johnson will be.

Duane Cross: Kurt Busch is the guy to keep an eye on; he's won at Martinsville, Phoenix ... runs well at Texas.

David Caraviello: Haven't seen much out of Kurt lately, though, to make me think he can win. Same with Kahne. It's like all these non-Chasers are already in 2009 testing mode.

Joe Menzer: Kurt Busch has run like crap lately. So has Ryan Newman. What in the heck is going on at Penske Racing these days anyway?

Duane Cross: Good question -- but it's the "any given Sunday" adage. Kurt could jump up and snag a win. Not likely, but he's a non-Chaser who could upset the apple cart.

David Caraviello: You had a lot of guys like Robby Gordon and Paul Menard and Scott Riggs near the front Sunday, but that was a restrictor-plate track. I'll tell you who might steal one down the stretch: David Ragan. The guy could win at one of those Roush-y tracks like Texas or Homestead.

Joe Menzer: I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Juan Montoya might jump up there and actually win one on an oval down the stretch here. He's been running better at certain tracks and showing signs he might be ready to finally pull it off.

Duane Cross: JPM could be the guy at Martinsville; he's never finished below 16th in three races. And he was eighth in the fall last year.

Joe Menzer: See, there you go. He likes running there and once said that with all the braking, it reminds him of a road course. And I believe JPM ran well at Texas last time, didn't he? I guess JPM started 11th and finished 19th at Texas in the spring. Not great, but not bad. He also started 15th and finished 16th at Phoenix. But he could be coming on.

Duane Cross: I'm looking way ahead, but does anyone else find it comical -- not in a good way -- that Kyle Busch could have the most win in the Cup Series and NOT be at the year-end banquet?

David Caraviello: Wow, because only the top 10 go? That would be bizarre.

Duane Cross: Only the top 10 make the trek to New York -- and Kyle is 11th, 82 points behind Junior.

David Caraviello: Man, I feel bad for that kid -- had the season of his life derailed by parts failures. But Kyle left last year's banquet as soon as it was over to go race in the Snowball Derby, so I don't think he'd miss it.

Joe Menzer: What a disappointment it would be for Junior not to go after his fast start, too, if that were to happen. That's why they should put all 12 Chasers up on stage, in my opinion.

Duane Cross: I agree, Joe -- all the Chasers should be there. In that sense, as it is now, it cheapens two of the drivers' playoff efforts. After doing the dog-and-pony shows for the past few years -- 2006-07 as champion -- I doubt Jimmie would mind skipping it! There's only so many times you can grip-n-grin with the same folks.

David Caraviello: Oh, something tells me a $7 million check makes it all much easier.

Joe Menzer: You know, now that I think about it, Caraviello is sort of our Mr. New York. I'll bet he never gets tired of it!

David Caraviello: I've taken out a sublet on a walk-up in SoHo.

Joe Menzer: And you did it your way.

David Caraviello: And we thought Brian France was the Chairman of the Board!

Duane Cross: Caraviello and Sinatra ... never thought of them in the same vein. ... And now, my head hurts.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers