Johnson the favorite, but don't discount dark horses (cont'd)

As on most of the unrestricted, intermediate speedways this year, Carl Edwards will be his biggest competition. In 2004, Dave Blaney started the No. 99 car while Edwards rushed to get to the track following a Craftsman Truck Series race, and the tandem finished a disappointing 37th, but the Missouri Young Gun has never finished worse than 15th in a race he started at Lowe's; better still, all but one of these attempts ended in top-10 results. In 2008, Edwards already has a pair of victories on the "cookie-cutter" courses of Las Vegas and Texas, as well as a second to Johnson at Kansas, so he can't be overlooked.

Greg Biffle expected to crash last week; he just didn't expect that he'd be helped around by Edwards. Because he didn't believe that a good result was pending from Talladega, he didn't lose any momentum by drawing a bad finishing number and since so many other Chasers also were slowed or stopped by crash damage, he is still in a great position in the points. That means Biffle won't miss a beat as he heads to Lowe's and he's been as close to a sure thing on the "cookie-cutters" this year as fantasy owners are likely to find. In six starts on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks, Biffle has finished fourth or better in five races and the only time he finished worse was when he struggled with a vibration in his engine at Texas this spring.

Dark Horses

Because so many teams put an emphasis on the "cookie-cutter" tracks in general and Lowe's specifically, dark horses tend to do extremely well in these races. Last year in this event Michael Waltrip earned a rare top-10 and his teammate David Reutimann backed that up with another top result in May. Even while struggling through a largely disappointing season, Elliott Sadler also finished among the top-10 this May, which means there will probably be ample opportunities to stretch your salary-cap dollars.

Those dark horses may come from some surprising sources, however. Make certain to pay close attention to the roster this week, because "silly season" is in full force. Last week, A.J. Allmendinger gave up his Red Bull ride in favor of Mike Skinner for two races and Scott Speed for the remainder of the season, and fantasy owners hoped that he would land on his feet. This week, Allmendinger will climb into the No. 00 cockpit. Michael Waltrip Racing has proved capable of tuning a top-10 car on this track, and this driver scored a top-10 finish in his last outing at Kansas a couple of weeks ago in his swan song in the No. 84. He and Reutimann have nearly identical records during the past three "cookie-cutter" races with one top-10 apiece and a sweep of the top 20, and they should be able to work well together.

David Ragan has been one of the best dark-horse contenders on the "cookie-cutters" all season. He started the year with a seventh at Vegas, slipped to 23rd at Atlanta, but has swept the top 15 since. In fact, his past two races on this track type at Chicagoland and Kansas ended in eighth-place finishes. Last week, Ragan finished third at Talladega, which was his 10th top-20 and seventh top-10 in the past 12 oval track races.

If any driver is going to challenge the Chasers for the outright victory, it just may be Kasey Kahne, but he doesn't come without some risk. The Gillett Evernham Motorsports driver has won three of the past five Lowe's races, but he's mostly struggled in 2008 on every track type. His victory at Lowe's in May is one of only two top-10s on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks and while his worst result on these courses is only 28th, fantasy owners really need the No. 9 to produce another top-10 to justify his salary cap. Because he's been so strong at Lowe's in the recent past, however, he should be watched closely in practice and activated if he shows signs of strength.

Fantasy Racing
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