Johnson the favorite, but don't discount dark horses

Talladega offered a bitter pill to swallow for most fantasy owners. Whether you put your trust in marquee favorites like Dale Earnhardt Jr. or well-prepared dark horses like Mike Wallace, the 2.66-mile wild-card track took its toll.

Two Big Ones combined to reduce half the field to smoldering ruins when Brian Vickers cut a tire while running at the head of the pack and Carl Edwards tried an ill-advised bump draft in the middle of a corner -- while running at the head of the pack -- and one- and two-car incidents were no less devastating. Wallace's cut tire ruined what could have been a top-five finish for that part-time driver and David Reutimann befell a similar fate that also eliminated Jeff Gordon.

When the smoke cleared, seven Chase contenders finished 20th or worse, leaving one Chaser to win the race and another to stand taller at the head of the points.

Tony Stewart held off a determined charge by Dale Earnhardt Inc. teammates Regan Smith and Paul Menard at the end and scored his first victory of the season one week after finishing 40th at Kansas. Jimmie Johnson had one of the slower cars at Talladega, but proved Richard Petty's maxim that it's better to be lucky than good by being behind the carnage and surviving to earn his sixth consecutive top-10.

Time will tell if this race was indeed a watershed for the Chase. Only Johnson and Jeff Burton survived the first four playoff races with a streak of top-10s and they are joined by Clint Bowyer as the only other driver to sweep the top 15, but with six races remaining, they could also stumble before the Cup is presented at Homestead.

The Favorites

Don't look for any major problems among the Chase contenders this week, however, because on average Lowe's Motor Speedway has been the most kind to them. In four races so far, playoff contenders have combined for an average finish of 11.9 and in the 2004 race, the 10 Chasers combined for an average finish of 9.5, which was the third-best single-race performance for that group behind the 2005 Kansas race (8.1), the 2006 Phoenix race (9.3) and tied with 2004 Dover.

In fact, a Chase contender has never failed to win this race. Johnson took the first two editions in 2004 and 2005, Kasey Kahne won in 2006 and Gordon won last year. Couple that with the fact that the first four Chase races of this season also have been won by Chasers, and fantasy owners know where to look for their top performer.

Johnson was the uncontested king of Lowe's from 2003 through 2006, winning five of eight races, finishing second twice and third once for an average finish of 1.5 during that span. A blown engine at that track in 2001 was soon forgotten when he rattled off 11 consecutive top-10s and 12 top-15s. He remembered what failure tasted like this summer with another blown engine, but that is the only time in the past four attempts on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks that he's finished worse than second. A dominant victory at Kansas two weeks ago has him back up to speed and makes him this week's favorite. (Continued)