Johnson the favorite, but don't discount dark horses

Talladega offered a bitter pill to swallow for most fantasy owners. Whether you put your trust in marquee favorites like Dale Earnhardt Jr. or well-prepared dark horses like Mike Wallace, the 2.66-mile wild-card track took its toll.

Two Big Ones combined to reduce half the field to smoldering ruins when Brian Vickers cut a tire while running at the head of the pack and Carl Edwards tried an ill-advised bump draft in the middle of a corner -- while running at the head of the pack -- and one- and two-car incidents were no less devastating. Wallace's cut tire ruined what could have been a top-five finish for that part-time driver and David Reutimann befell a similar fate that also eliminated Jeff Gordon.

When the smoke cleared, seven Chase contenders finished 20th or worse, leaving one Chaser to win the race and another to stand taller at the head of the points.

Tony Stewart held off a determined charge by Dale Earnhardt Inc. teammates Regan Smith and Paul Menard at the end and scored his first victory of the season one week after finishing 40th at Kansas. Jimmie Johnson had one of the slower cars at Talladega, but proved Richard Petty's maxim that it's better to be lucky than good by being behind the carnage and surviving to earn his sixth consecutive top-10.

Time will tell if this race was indeed a watershed for the Chase. Only Johnson and Jeff Burton survived the first four playoff races with a streak of top-10s and they are joined by Clint Bowyer as the only other driver to sweep the top 15, but with six races remaining, they could also stumble before the Cup is presented at Homestead.

The Favorites

Don't look for any major problems among the Chase contenders this week, however, because on average Lowe's Motor Speedway has been the most kind to them. In four races so far, playoff contenders have combined for an average finish of 11.9 and in the 2004 race, the 10 Chasers combined for an average finish of 9.5, which was the third-best single-race performance for that group behind the 2005 Kansas race (8.1), the 2006 Phoenix race (9.3) and tied with 2004 Dover.

In fact, a Chase contender has never failed to win this race. Johnson took the first two editions in 2004 and 2005, Kasey Kahne won in 2006 and Gordon won last year. Couple that with the fact that the first four Chase races of this season also have been won by Chasers, and fantasy owners know where to look for their top performer.

Johnson was the uncontested king of Lowe's from 2003 through 2006, winning five of eight races, finishing second twice and third once for an average finish of 1.5 during that span. A blown engine at that track in 2001 was soon forgotten when he rattled off 11 consecutive top-10s and 12 top-15s. He remembered what failure tasted like this summer with another blown engine, but that is the only time in the past four attempts on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks that he's finished worse than second. A dominant victory at Kansas two weeks ago has him back up to speed and makes him this week's favorite.

As on most of the unrestricted, intermediate speedways this year, Carl Edwards will be his biggest competition. In 2004, Dave Blaney started the No. 99 car while Edwards rushed to get to the track following a Craftsman Truck Series race, and the tandem finished a disappointing 37th, but the Missouri Young Gun has never finished worse than 15th in a race he started at Lowe's; better still, all but one of these attempts ended in top-10 results. In 2008, Edwards already has a pair of victories on the "cookie-cutter" courses of Las Vegas and Texas, as well as a second to Johnson at Kansas, so he can't be overlooked.

Greg Biffle expected to crash last week; he just didn't expect that he'd be helped around by Edwards. Because he didn't believe that a good result was pending from Talladega, he didn't lose any momentum by drawing a bad finishing number and since so many other Chasers also were slowed or stopped by crash damage, he is still in a great position in the points. That means Biffle won't miss a beat as he heads to Lowe's and he's been as close to a sure thing on the "cookie-cutters" this year as fantasy owners are likely to find. In six starts on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks, Biffle has finished fourth or better in five races and the only time he finished worse was when he struggled with a vibration in his engine at Texas this spring.

Dark Horses

Because so many teams put an emphasis on the "cookie-cutter" tracks in general and Lowe's specifically, dark horses tend to do extremely well in these races. Last year in this event Michael Waltrip earned a rare top-10 and his teammate David Reutimann backed that up with another top result in May. Even while struggling through a largely disappointing season, Elliott Sadler also finished among the top-10 this May, which means there will probably be ample opportunities to stretch your salary-cap dollars.

Those dark horses may come from some surprising sources, however. Make certain to pay close attention to the roster this week, because "silly season" is in full force. Last week, A.J. Allmendinger gave up his Red Bull ride in favor of Mike Skinner for two races and Scott Speed for the remainder of the season, and fantasy owners hoped that he would land on his feet. This week, Allmendinger will climb into the No. 00 cockpit. Michael Waltrip Racing has proved capable of tuning a top-10 car on this track, and this driver scored a top-10 finish in his last outing at Kansas a couple of weeks ago in his swan song in the No. 84. He and Reutimann have nearly identical records during the past three "cookie-cutter" races with one top-10 apiece and a sweep of the top 20, and they should be able to work well together.

David Ragan has been one of the best dark-horse contenders on the "cookie-cutters" all season. He started the year with a seventh at Vegas, slipped to 23rd at Atlanta, but has swept the top 15 since. In fact, his past two races on this track type at Chicagoland and Kansas ended in eighth-place finishes. Last week, Ragan finished third at Talladega, which was his 10th top-20 and seventh top-10 in the past 12 oval track races.

If any driver is going to challenge the Chasers for the outright victory, it just may be Kasey Kahne, but he doesn't come without some risk. The Gillett Evernham Motorsports driver has won three of the past five Lowe's races, but he's mostly struggled in 2008 on every track type. His victory at Lowe's in May is one of only two top-10s on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks and while his worst result on these courses is only 28th, fantasy owners really need the No. 9 to produce another top-10 to justify his salary cap. Because he's been so strong at Lowe's in the recent past, however, he should be watched closely in practice and activated if he shows signs of strength.

Fantasy Racing
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