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Loop Data favors Johnson for a third consecutive title

By NASCAR.COM
October 10, 2008
03:01 PM EDT
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The scary news for those closest to Jimmie Johnson in the Cup Series points standings: Even Johnson's subpar performances result in top-10 finishes.

At Talladega last Sunday, Johnson led only three laps, had an Average Running Position of 24.6 and a Driver Rating of 64.2. He finished ninth.

The finish made him four-for-four in top-10s during this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup. With it, Johnson has now scored more points in the first four races than any other driver in the Chase's five-year history:

Cup Series Points

First four Chase races (2004-2008)
Year Driver Points
2008 Jimmie Johnson 678
2004 Kurt Busch 665
2007 Jeff Gordon 650
2008 Greg Biffle 641
2004 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 641

Worse yet for his competitors -- Johnson is a notoriously strong closer. In three of the previous four Chases, Johnson scored the most points in the last six races (in 2005, he scored the fifth-most points):

Cup Series Points

Final six races of the Chase
2004     2006     2007  
Driver Points   Driver Points   Driver Points
Jimmie Johnson 1060   Jimmie Johnson 1033   Jimmie Johnson 1042
Jeff Gordon 884   Tony Stewart 903   Jeff Gordon 956
Mark Martin 864   Denny Hamlin 860   Matt Kenseth 926
Jamie McMurray 861   Carl Edwards 840   Jeff Burton 877
Kurt Busch 821   Dale Earnhardt Jr. 836   Kyle Busch 863

What Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton -- all within 100 points of Johnson -- need is a stronger Lowe's Motor Speedway race than Johnson. Clearly, that could be a tough assignment.

With five wins and 11 top-10s in 14 races, Johnson is phenomenal at LMS. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Johnson is the only driver with a Driver Rating higher than 100 and the only one with an Average Running Position better than 10.0. Below is his race log at LMS:

Jimmie Johnson

Lowe's Motor Speedway (last seven races)
Date Finish Avg. Running Pos. Fastest Laps Run Laps Top 15% Driver Rating Led
5/05 1 7.8 24 88 127 11
10/05 1 13.9 9 72.3 101.7 13
5/06 2 4.6 43 98 128.8 24
10/06 2 5.3 28 100 126.4 72
5/07 10 6.2 70 88.8 121.1 83
10/07 14 7.1 72 83.1 116.3 95
5/08 39 9.4 14 87.8 94.5 35
Total 9.9 7.7 260 88.5 116.5 333

Johnson is the clear class of the LMS field, even with his 39th-place finish in this season's Coca-Cola 600. One driver who comes close is Kasey Kahne, who will attempt to become the first driver to win the Coca-Cola 600, the All-Star Race and the Bank of America 500 in the same season.

Kahne is strong at LMS, to say the least. He owns many track-best statistics since 2005:

Lowe's Motor Speedway

Driver Rating and Average Running Position
Pos. Driver Date DR   Pos. Driver Date Avg. Running Pos.
1. Kasey Kahne 10/06 143.6   1. Kasey Kahne 10/06 2.913
2. Kasey Kahne 5/06 136.9   2. Jimmie Johnson 5/06 4.613
3. Kasey Kahne 5/08 131.8   3. Clint Bowyer 10/07 4.709

The End

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Sprint Cup Series

Official Standings
Pos. +/- Driver Points Behind
1. -- Jimmie Johnson 5718 --
2. -- Carl Edwards 5646 -72
3. -- Greg Biffle 5641 -77
4. -- Jeff Burton 5619 -99
5. +2 Clint Bowyer 5566 -152
6. -1 Kevin Harvick 5547 -171
7. +4 Tony Stewart 5515 -203
8. -2 Jeff Gordon 5486 -232
9. -- Matt Kenseth 5473 -245
10. -2 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5469 -249
11. +1 Kyle Busch 5387 -331
12. -2 Denny Hamlin 5383 -335

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