By the Numbers: Atlanta

Biffle faces largest comeback with four races remaining

By Josh Pate
October 23, 2008
10:06 PM EDT

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The margin is 149. The hunted is Jimmie Johnson. The closest in pursuit is Greg Biffle.

Fast facts

What	Pep Boys Auto 500
When	2:20 p.m. ET Sunday
TV	ABC, 1 p.m. ET
Radio	PRN (Sirius Ch. 128), 1:15 ET

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Sounds simple: One blown engine and a top-five finish can change the points lead in one lap. Put simply, Biffle can finish 39 positions higher than Johnson and catch him in one race. Those are the possibilities. The probabilities are something different if one looks back in time.

The last time anybody finished 39 positions ahead of Johnson was at Charlotte earlier this year, coincidentally also the last time Johnson blew a motor. It was the only blown engine the No. 48 car has had since the fall 2005 race at Bristol -- 116 races.

But it all goes back to the margin. No driver in the modern era has overcome a greater margin with four races to go and win the championship.

Chase Drivers at Atlanta

1. Jimmie JohnsonThree victories at Atlanta for Johnson. Prior to his 13th-place finish in the spring, he had finishes of sixth, second, first and first.

2. Greg BiffleBiffle has gotten progressively better in the last three Atlanta races, finishing 41st, 22nd and fourth, respectively. In the 2005 spring race he led 151 laps, and in the 2006 spring race he led 128. Biffle has never won there, and was fourth in March.

3. Jeff BurtonNo victories for Burton at Atlanta, but he's placed in the top 10 in each of his last three starts. He led 87 laps in his first race there in 1994, but in the 27 starts since then has led just 16 laps.

4. Carl EdwardsSince sweeping the Atlanta races in 2005, Edwards has been up and down. He was 40th, then had three consecutive top-10s, then blew an engine and finished 42nd in the spring.

5. Clint BowyerConsider it good finishes or a bad set of numbers. Bowyer's last three finishes at Atlanta: 6, 6, 6. He led 52 laps there in the spring race.

6. Kevin HarvickSince finishing first and third in his rookie season of 2001, Harvick went 12 consecutive Atlanta races with finishes of 15th or worse until he finished seventh there in the spring. He's led 11 laps in the last nine AMS races.

7. Jeff GordonFour victories at Atlanta for Gordon, and he has five top-10 finishes in the last six races there. The other one was a 12th-place finish (spring 2007). He was fifth in March.

8. Tony StewartA 30th-place finish in this race last year was against the norm for Stewart. He has finished in the top five in four of the last five Atlanta races, including a victory (fall 2006) and two second-place finishes.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.The 2004 winner has 10 top-10s in 18 starts at Atlanta, including four finishes of fourth or better in the last six races. He was third there in the spring.

10. Matt KensethKenseth has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six Atlanta races, although he's led just 12 laps in that time. He has never won there, and was eighth in the spring.

11. Denny HamlinHamlin has just one top-10 finish in six Atlanta starts. His last three showings have been 19th, 24th and 15th.

12. Kyle BuschThe spring winner went against the grain with his victory in March. It was the first time he finished better than 12th at Atlanta, and it followed consecutive finishes of 27th, 32nd and 20th.

More Chase Facts

1Time in the Chase era that the Atlanta fall race was not won by a Chase driver: Tony Stewart, 2006. The other winners were Jimmie Johnson (2004, 2007) and Carl Edwards (2005).

6.75Average starting position for winners of the four Atlanta Chase races. Kasey Kahne's spring 2006 victory was the last time a driver won either Atlanta race from the pole.

144Points by which Alan Kulwicki trailed Bill Elliott with four races to go in 1992, yet Kulwicki came back to win the championship. It was the largest margin overcome with four races to go since the current points structure was put in place in 1975.

1,644Points scored in the last 10 Atlanta races by Jimmie Johnson, 147 more than Tony Stewart who has scored second-most.

Non-Chase Nugget

1,024Laps led by Bill Elliott at Atlanta, second-most among active drivers behind Jeff Gordon (1,051). Elliott and members of his 1988 team will be honored before Sunday's race for the Cup championship they won 20 years ago.

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Atlanta Motor Speedway

Chase Driver Statistics

Pos.	Driver	Starts	Wins	Avg. Finish

1.	Jimmie Johnson	14	3	9.6
2.	Greg Biffle	11	0	14.8
3.	Jeff Burton	28	0	16.5
4.	Carl Edwards	8	2	12.9
5.	Clint Bowyer	5	0	14.0
6.	Kevin Harvick	15	1	23.3
7.	Jeff Gordon	32	2	12.8
8.	Tony Stewart	19	2	12.0
9.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	18	1	11.7
10.	Matt Kenseth	17	0	14.5
11.	Denny Hamlin	6	0	19.3
12.	Kyle Busch	8	1	19.9

Sprint Cup Series

Official Standings

Pos.	+/-	Driver	Points	Behind

1.	--	Jimmie Johnson	6073	Leader
2.	+1	Greg Biffle	5924	-149
3.	-1	Jeff Burton	5921	-152
4.	--	Carl Edwards	5875	-198
5.	--	Clint Bowyer	5827	-246
6.	--	Kevin Harvick	5817	-256
7.	+1	Jeff Gordon	5798	-275
8.	-1	Tony Stewart	5735	-338
9.	+1	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	5694	-379
10.	+1	Matt Kenseth	5665	-408
11.	+1	Denny Hamlin	5653	-420
12.	-3	Kyle Busch	5628	-445