Burton should rebound at Atlanta, but Johnson tops

In the first four years of the Chase, 15 contenders have finished outside the top 25 at Atlanta, compared to 12 at Talladega. Part of the reason for this may be its position on the schedule. Atlanta has always been the seventh Chase race, and at this stage of competition, a number of drivers have nothing to lose by stretching their engines, strategy and skill to the breaking point.

The Chase is still to be determined in 2008, but it is safe to say that the playoff format certainly suits Jimmie Johnson's racing style. Since his awkward first four races of 2006, the driver of the No. 48 has finished outside the top 10 only twice in Chase races, has never finished worse than 14th and has an average result of 4.2.

Fast facts

What	Pep Boys Auto 500
When	2:20 p.m. ET Sunday
TV	ABC, 1 p.m. ET
Radio	PRN (Sirius Ch. 128), 1:15 ET

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Even with the occasional stumble, Johnson has a career Chase average of 8.7 in 46 races, which leads all active and inactive drivers. Mathematically, the field may be able to catch Johnson, but they are going to need for him to make a mistake, and these numbers suggest that is statistically unlikely.

The Favorites

If the Chasers are waiting for Johnson to stumble, they most likely will have to wait another week. He got off to a slow start at Atlanta in his first two seasons by scoring three results outside the top 20, but he's been nearly perfect since. In his past 10 races there, he has eight results of sixth or better, three of which are victories. Last year, he swept this track, so if he was on your roster at Martinsville, there is no reason to remove him -- probably for the remainder of the season.

Tony Stewart is another nearly perfect driver at Atlanta. A 30th in this race last fall is one of only two finishes outside the top 10 in his past 14 efforts there and three of his past four races have ended in first- or second-place finishes. Even with that single bad effort last year, Stewart has an average finish of 7.2 since the start of the 2002 season. This past March, he went to Atlanta fresh off a disappointing 43rd-place finish at Las Vegas and last week's 26th at Martinsville will have him similarly galvanized.

After using three mulligans in the first four Chase races, Matt Kenseth's hopes for the championship are dashed, but that does not make him a bad fantasy pick. His odds of a strong run last week were not very great, since Roush Fenway Racing has struggled on the short, flat tracks, but his eighth-place finish there was eerily similar to his accomplishment in 2007. After suffering through four bad races in the first five weeks of that Chase, he finished fifth at Martinsville and then swept the top five for the remainder of the season. At Atlanta, he enters the weekend with a four-race top-10 streak there and a six-race streak of top-15s.

Jeff Burton is another Chaser who should be able to rebound ably this week. A rare mistake in the pits at Martinsville for the No. 31 team stranded him a lap off the pace and denied him a top-10 for the first time during the Chase. A 17th-place finish won't go in the record books as a mulligan, but it may still be the race that cost him the championship. Nonetheless, it does not point to any lack of strength on the team and they are still contenders for the win on a weekly basis. Add to that a three-race top-10 streak at Atlanta and four consecutive top-15s, and his fans should not be overly concerned that he dropped a spot in the standings after Martinsville.

Dark Horses

In part because Chasers have struggled in this race, dark horses have run extremely well. Since the advent of the playoff-style format, drivers like Joe Nemechek, Jamie McMurray, Robby Gordon and Reed Sorenson have cracked the top 10 in bold defiance of their overall records. For that matter, the March race hasn't been overly unkind to them, either. Paul Menard finished seventh in that race in 2006 and, in 2005, Michael Waltrip, Dave Blaney and Scott Riggs finished seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively. Fantasy owners will want to keep a close eye on average practice speeds this weekend because the key to success in the Pep Boys Auto 500 will be in determining who is going to be this year's most pleasant surprise.

Last year, Sorenson swept the top 10 at Atlanta and some of Chip Ganassi Racing's best results were on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks. The No. 41 was also 10th in March 2006 to give him three solid results in his six-race career there. Unfortunately, his other three finishes have all been outside the top 25 so he doesn't come without a little risk.

Talk about consistency: Clint Bowyer has finished exactly sixth in his past three Atlanta attempts, making him one of only three drivers to enter the weekend with at least a three-race top-10 streak (along with Burton and Kenseth). Bowyer has been equally consistent in his past nine races of 2008, finishing in a narrow band of results from fifth through 12th, which suggests the downside of starting him is not very great.

Joey Logano was not a very good value in the No. 96 Hall of Fame Racing Toyota, but his circumstances have changed for the Pep Boys Auto 500 and he will be in a Joe Gibbs Racing company car this week. Before rain canceled qualification at Richmond, Logano had the best average speed among all drivers and he was poised to debut in style. The challenges of a 1.5-mile "cookie-cutter" track are going to be considerably tougher this week than he faced on the short course, but fantasy owners should bear in mind that several of his strong Nationwide runs this season have come on this track type -- including his career-first victory at Kentucky this summer.

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