Stats say Johnson's lead not safe from Chase foes

In the Loop: No. 48's average finish in final four is 9.1

By Official Release
October 24, 2008
05:41 PM EDT

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DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Jimmie Johnson cannot simply sit on his 149-point lead and expect to win a third consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.

True, over the four remaining tracks, Johnson ranks first in almost every statistical category. But Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards -- all within 200 points of Johnson -- are close behind.

One Johnson mis-step could quickly tighten the championship outlook.

Below are statistics of the top four drivers at the remaining four tracks:

Top Contenders at Remaining Four Tracks

Driver	Starts	Wins	Avg.	Fin ARP*	LT15%*	DR*

Jimmie Johnson	41	6	9.1	8.3	86.9	109.6
Greg Biffle	35	4	17.8	13.9	66.6	99.5
Jeff Burton	70	4	14.6	14.9	64.2	87.2
Carl Edwards	27	4	13.3	12.2	76.5	101.5

* Loop Data statistics from 2005-Present
ARP: Avg. Running Position | LT15%: Pct. of Laps in the Top 15 | DR: Driver Rating

Below is a rundown of the contenders and how they have fared at Atlanta Motor Speedway (site of the weekend's Pep Boys Auto 500) and the beyond.

Jimmie Johnson
Johnson has the No. 1 Driver Rating at three of the final four tracks -- Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix. His Driver Rating at Homestead is a 12th-best 85.0.

His finishes at the next three tracks are brilliant. At Atlanta, he has finished in the top 10 in eight of the last 10 races (and in the top five in seven of the last 10). At Texas, Johnson has 10 career starts -- eight have been top-10 finishes. He has the same tally at Phoenix: 10 starts, eight top-10s (including wins in the last two Phoenix races).

Fastest Laps Run

Atlanta Track-Bests

Pos.	Driver	Date	FLR

1.	Greg Biffle	3/05	102
2.	Carl Edwards	10/05	85
3.	Carl Edwards	3/08	66
4.	Jimmie Johnson	3/05	65
5.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	10/05	62

Greg Biffle
Of the four remaining tracks, Biffle's best Driver Rating is at Homestead (111.0), the final track of the season. He likely needs to strike sooner than later. Atlanta suits Biffle's wide-open style. He holds the single-race Atlanta best in Fastest Laps Run.

Jeff Burton
Statistically, Burton is the dark horse of the top four. He is solid at Atlanta, with top-10s in the last three races. But as this Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup has proven, top-10s alone won't get it done. His best Atlanta race came in last season's spring event -- a fourth-place finish where he scored a Driver Rating of 101.6.

Carl Edwards
Edwards seems like Johnson's fiercest competition. He has a Driver Rating of more than 100.0 at three of the final four tracks, and is strong at Atlanta. If not for engine failure in the spring, he might have won. In four of the past seven Atlanta races, Edwards scored a Driver Rating over 100.0: