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Think April of 2006, the spring race at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick won the first of his season sweep at the Arizona mile track. Carl Edwards came in fourth, his first top-five finish at the track. And Jimmie Johnson was three positions back in seventh.
It was also the last time Edwards beat Johnson at Phoenix.
Despite finishing 11th or better in three of the next four races there, Johnson was able to do even better in that span. In fact, only four drivers finished higher than Johnson in that span. He was second and fourth in the next two races, then won two in a row.
What does that mean for Edwards? Johnson, who could possibly clinch the Cup Series championship at Phoenix by gaining 90 points on Edwards and 50 points on Greg Biffle, simply needs to take care of his own finishing position to win the title (more below). But for Edwards, he has to average a 53-point gain on Johnson in the next two weeks -- also the difference between first and seventh.
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| Pos. | Driver | Starts | Wins | Avg. Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 2 | 6.0 |
| 2. | Carl Edwards | 8 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 3. | Greg Biffle | 9 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 4. | Jeff Burton | 18 | 2 | 11.1 |
| 5. | Jeff Gordon | 19 | 1 | 8.5 |
| 6. | Clint Bowyer | 6 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 7. | Kevin Harvick | 11 | 2 | 13.7 |
| 8. | Matt Kenseth | 12 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 9. | Tony Stewart | 13 | 1 | 9.8 |
| 10. | Kyle Busch | 7 | 1 | 15.4 |
| 11. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12 | 2 | 18.0 |
| 12. | Denny Hamlin | 6 | 0 | 12.0 |
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | -- | Jimmie Johnson | 6366 | Leader |
| 2. | -- | Carl Edwards | 6260 | -106 |
| 3. | -- | Greg Biffle | 6223 | -143 |
| 4. | -- | Jeff Burton | 6154 | -212 |
| 5. | +1 | Jeff Gordon | 6111 | -255 |
| 6. | +1 | Clint Bowyer | 6099 | -267 |
| 7. | -2 | Kevin Harvick | 6087 | -279 |
| 8. | +1 | Matt Kenseth | 5973 | -393 |
| 9. | -1 | Tony Stewart | 5962 | -404 |
| 10. | +2 | Kyle Busch | 5938 | -428 |
| 11. | -1 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 5937 | -429 |
| 12. | -1 | Denny Hamlin | 5935 | -431 |