Edwards closes gap, but Johnson remains in control

1. Carl Edwards is 106 points down to Jimmie Johnson with two races remaining. Is that deficit insurmountable?

Joe Menzer: Absolutely not. Now, do I think Edwards is going to catch Jimmie? No. But with Edwards just coming off the race in Texas, where he made up 77 points in one day, all you need to do is the math.

David Caraviello: No, it's not. But it's unlikely that he's going to make it all up. Does anyone really expect the No. 48 team to have three consecutive races as bad as the one in Fort Worth?

Raygan Swan: I have to agree, it is making the end of the Chase a bit more interesting. But I don't see Edwards catching Johnson unless Jimmie completely unravels. And it doesn't help that Edwards doesn't have a win at Phoenix, and Jimmie has more than one.

David Caraviello: Besides, if Jimmie makes up as many points on Carl at Phoenix as Carl made up on Jimmie at Texas, Johnson still has an outside shot at clinching this thing this weekend. This is still a big number we're dealing with, even if it's been whittled down.

Joe Menzer: I'll tell you what, though. The deal at Texas was the most I've seen the Chad Knaus/Jimmie Johnson duo sweat in a long while. Give Carl credit for putting on the heat.

Raygan Swan: One reporter in the Texas media center advised someone try and knock them off their game ... maybe Carl has accomplished that.

Joe Menzer: Again, though, I have to say that I thought it was all over when Jimmie won at Martinsville. And maybe it was. But Carl said then that all he could do was go out "and win the next four races" to see what happens. We all laughed, but he's halfway there and he's got the No. 48 team at least glancing in their rearview mirror.

David Caraviello: The only thing that knocks the No. 48 team off their game is when the car isn't right. If the cars are good, we know Johnson can run up front in them. This deal is all on crew chief Chad Knaus right now.

The largest deficit overcome with two races left to win the Cup is 85 points, by Alan Kulwicki in 1992.

Raygan Swan: Joe, do you think Carl can win in Phoenix?

Joe Menzer: Sure, why not? Phoenix is a unique track (read more in my enterprise piece this Friday) and he may not have a victory there, but he's hot and has momentum -- even if he doesn't believe in it. And even though Carl doesn't believe in momentum, car owner Jack Roush sure does. He says Carl and the No. 99 team has it and can make a run, and to be truthful, I believe him (which you can read right now).

David Caraviello: Man, Carl can win anywhere. He's off in the woods right now, preparing his own personal desert assault. But to a certain degree, this is still out of his control. He still needs some help. And the No. 48 team will give him only so much.

Raygan Swan: That's right, David. Carl said he was going hunting -- err, sleeping -- in a tree stand.

Joe Menzer: I also have to say, DC2, that I think you are wrong about the only thing that can get the No. 48 crew rattled is if they have a bad car. That's true only to an extent. The combination of a balky car at Texas and Carl having another great run had them sweating. Had Carl not been applying the heat, they wouldn't have been so nervous. So he did have an effect on them.

David Caraviello: Well, historically, Joe, you want to get them worked up, a car that won't perform will do it. Sunday at Texas reminded me a lot of the race early in the year at Las Vegas, another 1.5-mile intermediate track where they missed the setup. And listening to them on the radio all race, they hardly if ever even mentioned the No. 99 car.

Joe Menzer: Are you kidding me? You think they weren't tracking the 99?

David Caraviello: If they were, they didn't show it. I listened to them the whole race, and I can't remember hearing Jimmie ask, "Where's the 99." They were fixated on the car and how bad it was, and whether it was ever going to get any better. Then they were fixated on getting past lapped cars trying to get their lap back. You only heard the 99 mentioned when the spotter brought him up in the context of traffic.

Joe Menzer: And isn't it true that the 48 guys go onto another frequency when they want to discuss something in private? Or just don't talk at all about it over the radio? I think it is naive to think they weren't tracking the 99 very religiously.

Raygan Swan: Regardless, Johnson and Chad have to consider the No. 99 this weekend.

David Caraviello: Well, they've got to get the car right. You don't hear Jimmie get rattled over the radio very often, and he was rattled Sunday. It was because of the car, not because of Edwards.

Raygan Swan: Jimmie could clinch in Phoenix if he gets at least 196 points ahead, but that won't be easy with Carl on the track. Edwards has momentum on his side and a crafty crew chief known for taking risks that work out in the end.

Joe Menzer: Speaking of religion, Johnson and Knaus might want to go to church and pray that they don't have another dog of a car again. Or finally have the kind of bad luck some others have had in the Chase, where they get caught up in someone else's mess. (Continued)