Edwards closes gap, but Johnson remains in control

1. Carl Edwards is 106 points down to Jimmie Johnson with two races remaining. Is that deficit insurmountable?

Joe Menzer: Absolutely not. Now, do I think Edwards is going to catch Jimmie? No. But with Edwards just coming off the race in Texas, where he made up 77 points in one day, all you need to do is the math.

David Caraviello: No, it's not. But it's unlikely that he's going to make it all up. Does anyone really expect the No. 48 team to have three consecutive races as bad as the one in Fort Worth?

Raygan Swan: I have to agree, it is making the end of the Chase a bit more interesting. But I don't see Edwards catching Johnson unless Jimmie completely unravels. And it doesn't help that Edwards doesn't have a win at Phoenix, and Jimmie has more than one.

David Caraviello: Besides, if Jimmie makes up as many points on Carl at Phoenix as Carl made up on Jimmie at Texas, Johnson still has an outside shot at clinching this thing this weekend. This is still a big number we're dealing with, even if it's been whittled down.

Joe Menzer: I'll tell you what, though. The deal at Texas was the most I've seen the Chad Knaus/Jimmie Johnson duo sweat in a long while. Give Carl credit for putting on the heat.

Raygan Swan: One reporter in the Texas media center advised someone try and knock them off their game ... maybe Carl has accomplished that.

Joe Menzer: Again, though, I have to say that I thought it was all over when Jimmie won at Martinsville. And maybe it was. But Carl said then that all he could do was go out "and win the next four races" to see what happens. We all laughed, but he's halfway there and he's got the No. 48 team at least glancing in their rearview mirror.

David Caraviello: The only thing that knocks the No. 48 team off their game is when the car isn't right. If the cars are good, we know Johnson can run up front in them. This deal is all on crew chief Chad Knaus right now.

The largest deficit overcome with two races left to win the Cup is 85 points, by Alan Kulwicki in 1992.

Raygan Swan: Joe, do you think Carl can win in Phoenix?

Joe Menzer: Sure, why not? Phoenix is a unique track (read more in my enterprise piece this Friday) and he may not have a victory there, but he's hot and has momentum -- even if he doesn't believe in it. And even though Carl doesn't believe in momentum, car owner Jack Roush sure does. He says Carl and the No. 99 team has it and can make a run, and to be truthful, I believe him (which you can read right now).

David Caraviello: Man, Carl can win anywhere. He's off in the woods right now, preparing his own personal desert assault. But to a certain degree, this is still out of his control. He still needs some help. And the No. 48 team will give him only so much.

Raygan Swan: That's right, David. Carl said he was going hunting -- err, sleeping -- in a tree stand.

Joe Menzer: I also have to say, DC2, that I think you are wrong about the only thing that can get the No. 48 crew rattled is if they have a bad car. That's true only to an extent. The combination of a balky car at Texas and Carl having another great run had them sweating. Had Carl not been applying the heat, they wouldn't have been so nervous. So he did have an effect on them.

David Caraviello: Well, historically, Joe, you want to get them worked up, a car that won't perform will do it. Sunday at Texas reminded me a lot of the race early in the year at Las Vegas, another 1.5-mile intermediate track where they missed the setup. And listening to them on the radio all race, they hardly if ever even mentioned the No. 99 car.

Joe Menzer: Are you kidding me? You think they weren't tracking the 99?

David Caraviello: If they were, they didn't show it. I listened to them the whole race, and I can't remember hearing Jimmie ask, "Where's the 99." They were fixated on the car and how bad it was, and whether it was ever going to get any better. Then they were fixated on getting past lapped cars trying to get their lap back. You only heard the 99 mentioned when the spotter brought him up in the context of traffic.

Joe Menzer: And isn't it true that the 48 guys go onto another frequency when they want to discuss something in private? Or just don't talk at all about it over the radio? I think it is naive to think they weren't tracking the 99 very religiously.

Raygan Swan: Regardless, Johnson and Chad have to consider the No. 99 this weekend.

David Caraviello: Well, they've got to get the car right. You don't hear Jimmie get rattled over the radio very often, and he was rattled Sunday. It was because of the car, not because of Edwards.

Raygan Swan: Jimmie could clinch in Phoenix if he gets at least 196 points ahead, but that won't be easy with Carl on the track. Edwards has momentum on his side and a crafty crew chief known for taking risks that work out in the end.

Joe Menzer: Speaking of religion, Johnson and Knaus might want to go to church and pray that they don't have another dog of a car again. Or finally have the kind of bad luck some others have had in the Chase, where they get caught up in someone else's mess.

2. NASCAR parked David Gilliland for what seemed an intentional wreck of Juan Montoya on Sunday. Did he deserve more of a penalty?

Raygan Swan: Yes. Because as I see it, Gilliland was taking safety barriers for granted there, taking safety equipment and the durability of the new car for granted. What he did was dangerous and he should've gotten more than a stern lecture.

Juan Montoya makes the lonely walk in the Lone Star State after getting wrecked at Texas.

• Complete story, click here

Joe Menzer: Yes, I believe so. Furthermore, I question whether Montoya -- who has more of a reputation as an aggressive driver -- might not have been penalized more severely if the circumstances were reversed.

David Caraviello: Absolutely, if he did that intentionally. That was the kind of contact, turning him toward the wall at that rate of speed, that got people hurt or worse before the arrival of all these safety devices. But do we know for sure that David meant to do it? That still seems murky.

Joe Menzer: You saw the tape. I think it speaks for itself (watch video).

Raygan Swan: And as for this no prior record stuff, Gilliland does have a history for aggressive retaliation ... ask Michael McDowell. Recall Watkins Glenn, Turn 11.

Joe Menzer: Either Gilliland turned him on purpose, or Gilliland isn't "the talented little racecar driver" Edwards and others have made him out to be. And I happen to like Gilliland and I think he's better than that.

Raygan Swan: David said he meant to "get him loose," not to wreck him. But if you can't execute that move safely, don't even try it!

David Caraviello: Well, judging intent can be a tricky and dangerous thing. But so is that kind of hit. That reminded me a little of the crash that killed Blaise Alexander in an ARCA race at Charlotte, where he was turned straight into the wall. Once two racecars touch each other, the physics of the situation are often out of anyone's control.

Raygan Swan: With all of this said, I do think that David was remorseful. He was very sullen after the meeting with NASCAR, and seemed a bit rattled.

Joe Menzer: Well, I think we all agree that David's intent -- whatever it may have been -- was not to cause serious bodily harm, or worse, to anyone. Plus, he took himself out. I think it was just a stupid move. And to get back to answering the question, it was a stupid move that required him at least being put on probation for the remaining two races. At the least.

Raygan Swan: Some said after the race that Montoya deserved it, finally someone stood up to his aggressive driving. Umm, there are better ways of handling an aggressive driver than punting him into the wall at 180 mph.

Joe Menzer: I don't think Gilliland, in the heat of the moment, thought it through like a more veteran driver would have.

Raygan Swan: I agree, Joe, his emotions got the better of him.

David Caraviello: As for potential probation ... Raygan, do you think David talked his way past the NASCAR brass? Did they come out of that post-race meeting in Texas believing that it was an accident?

Raygan Swan: Yes. I think David did an excellent job of telling the brass it was an accident and that he "misjudged." The meeting was brief.

Joe Menzer: He sold them a bill of goods. And maybe he sold himself a bill of goods, too. You know, I don't have a dog in this hunt, but I think folks in the garage are awful quick to condemn Montoya for his "aggressive driving" when they praise others for similar styles. It's kind of ridiculous.

Raygan Swan: Yeah, Montoya gets the shaft in that department, but I'm curious to see if he has forgiven David.

Joe Menzer: Forgive and forget? I doubt if that's Montoya's nature, either. We maybe haven't seen the end of this "feud."

David Caraviello: Joe, I agree with you on the rough driving thing. There are some guys out there who are heroes because they aren't afraid to knock people out of the way. Shoot, Dale Earnhardt was beloved because of that. But Montoya? He's considered a menace. That is a touch unfair in some respects.

Raygan Swan: Fans give Montoya grief because he is new, but he's not new, he is a veteran, just not in the Cup Series. He deserves more respect, and he's making tons of progress, only he keeps getting wrecked week in and week out.

Joe Menzer: Fans also give him grief sometimes because he's an outsider.

David Caraviello: So what, Joe, you think Montoya has some elaborate revenge plan he's going to unleash at Phoenix? Maybe that's the "somebody else's mess" Edwards needs Johnson to get caught in to further tighten the points race. Are black helicopters circling above your house?

Joe Menzer: Hey, all I'm saying is that if the two of them are running close together in tight quarters again sometime during the last two weeks, don't be surprised if Montoya returns the favor. I won't be.

David Caraviello: Not to backtrack, but it's unbelievable how many people are e-mailing me claiming that NASCAR must have met with the 48 team before Texas and asked them to have a bad race to tighten the points battle. Just crazy. Some people will believe anything.

Joe Menzer: Hold on, David. Something just landed in my front yard and there appears to be a special-ops dude at my door!

3. The manufacturer's title is still up for grabs, with Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota all separated by just four points. Does this race still mean anything?

Joe Menzer: Well, it certainly means something to them. And they are the ones pumping enormous amounts of money and energy into this sport. So, yes, it does mean something.

David Caraviello: Did it ever mean anything? Granted, these manufacturers spend millions of dollars helping to fund these race teams. But drivers win races and championships, and that's who people pay to see.

Raygan Swan: David, try telling that to Alba Colon! She might smack you! Absolutely, it means boatloads for the hundreds of employees who work hard on these engines and the engineers who are on call for crew chiefs every weekend. This is their battle, and it's one that is closer than the actual Chase.

Joe Menzer: Hey, I didn't say the fans cared about it. And I really don't as a paid observer of the sport. But man, it's braggin' rights in the garage -- and back at headquarters for the manufacturer who wins it.

David Caraviello: But Raygan, it's not like Homestead-Miami Speedway is going to see a spike in ticket sales because of a tight manufacturer's race. It matters to the manufacturers. That's it.

Joe Menzer: David, you are getting kind of surly. You'd better be nicer to Raygan or I'm sending the special-ops dude to your front door.

Raygan Swan: I understand that, but I think the manufacturer's title gives the guy working on the line something to smile about for a change. The American auto industry is facing some of its darkest times right now. I think this is a small boost for the manufacturers who in today's NASCAR take a backseat to the driver inside the car. Now, the driver sells tickets. Years ago, it was the automaker.

David Caraviello: Hey, I'm not trying to be surly. But who wins the manufacturer's title is usually a footnote. Maybe the winner has a big celebration in Detroit somewhere, I don't know. Outside of that, this does not register.

Joe Menzer: They may not have enough money to celebrate in Detroit after this is over!

David Caraviello: Raygan, I wonder if the guy working the line wonders why his company spends so much money in NASCAR if it is in such financial straits. Whoops, was that me getting surly again?

Joe Menzer: I'm cueing up the black helicopter and setting a course for Charleston!

Raygan Swan: I live in Kokomo, Ind. -- Chrysler country. It doesn't look like much money is spent on Dodge these days, now does it?

David Caraviello: Hey, that's not my personal feeling. I think you have to market even when times are tough. But if you've been laid off by a manufacturer, certainly it would tick you off to see your former employer spending so much cash on racing.

Raygan Swan: But those workers buy and drive those cars to support their driver on the track. They know it's part of it. They roll with the bad and the good. Layoffs have been apart of the industry since it started. This Smack session is heavy today. Someone tell a joke or something.

Joe Menzer: Listen, the whole premise is what the manufacturers spend in NASCAR comes back to them ten-fold through the marketing and publicity platforms it provides for them. It's an investment. It's an investment that arguably has paid off handsomely for the manufacturers through the years -- or they wouldn't still be pumping the money into NASCAR!

David Caraviello: Oh, no question, Joe. But flying to Texas, we passed over a massive demolition site, full of heavy machinery tearing down this sprawling structure. It was the old Ford plant in Hapeville, Ga. There's a wake-up call on the state of the auto industry.

Joe Menzer: Rambo just drove up into my front yard in a pickup (can't say which manufacturer, because he'd have to eliminate me). But he wants directions to David's house.

David Caraviello: Of course, maybe those financial straits mean the manufacturer's championship will mean more to whomever wins it. I don't know. Ask somebody in five years who won it. They'll scratch their heads.

Joe Menzer: And by the way, what would really shake this whole manufacturer's championship up would be if Toyota won it. But that's a topic for another day, I guess.

Raygan Swan: Oh, Joe, now you've gone and done it ... you said the T word.

David Caraviello: That goes back to the whole issue of whether fans still root for the logo on the nose. I think that's becoming less and less of a factor with every passing year.

Joe Menzer: I don't know. I get some e-mails from lots of people in the ABT Club -- Anybody But Toyota.

Raygan Swan: You're right, David, that's the reality, but the championship is still important for some and is worth some recognition.

David Caraviello: Maybe. Now I have other concerns. Joe, why is there a dude in a frog suit standing in my living room?

Joe Menzer: Sorry, I can't say. I gotta go.

The opinions expressed are those solely of the participants.