Predicting the Cup champ? Gordon will take the fifth

NASCAR seems to change with every blink of the eye, but its 2008 Chase will remain remarkably unchanged -- except, of course, for its name (it's now the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup).

The Chase, entering its fifth season, again will use the first 26 races to determine the 12 drivers who will qualify to race for the championship. As in 2007, each of the qualifiers will then be awarded 5,000 points plus 10 more for every victory.

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All-time victories

Cup Series

Rank	Driver	Wins
1	Richard Petty	200
2	David Pearson	105
3	Bobby Allison	85
4	Darrell Waltrip	84
5	Cale Yarborough	83
6	Jeff Gordon	81
7	Dale Earnhardt	76
8	Rusty Wallace	55
9	Lee Petty	54
10	Ned Jarrett	50
	Junior Johnson	50

Those bonus points could reshuffle the standings but won't change the likelihood that (by our thinking, anyway) there will be a lot of familiar faces competing for the trophy -- but only one emerging with his fifth Cup title.

1. Jeff Gordon
The combination of consistency, another year with crew chief Steve Letarte and the power of Hendrick Motorsports will propel Gordon to an elusive fifth championship.

2. Tony Stewart
The move from Chevrolet to Toyota could actually make Joe Gibbs Racing better this year. That's a scary thought for the rest of the garage.

3. Jimmie Johnson
Even with crew chief Chad Knaus calling the shots, a third consecutive title for Hendrick's No. 48 team may be too much to ask.

4. Carl Edwards
Roush Fenway Racing made huge gains with the Car of Tomorrow late in 2007, and Edwards was the fastest driver on his team. But he was hurt by reliability issues.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Hendrick's newest hire will win some races, but he'll need a year to acclimate before challenging for a championship. He might, however, be the points leader after the Daytona 500.

6. Matt Kenseth
Like Johnson, Kenseth has qualified for the Chase every year since its inception. No exception this year. Kenseth is consistent -- and consistently fast.

7. Kyle Busch
He has something to prove after his forced departure from Hendrick Motorsports. At least his new teammates will be more willing to work with him than his old ones.

8. Kurt Busch
He's the unquestioned performance leader of the "Dodge Boys." The 2004 Cup champion benefits from the wisdom of savvy crew chief Pat Tryson.

9. Martin Truex Jr.
If the No. 1 team at DEI can solve reliability issues, Truex will be a Chase front-runner. He finished last season with a flourish, and now he's thriving in his new role as team leader.

10. Denny Hamlin
Yes, all three Gibbs cars will make the Chase despite their move to Toyota. It doesn't matter what Hamlin drives; he made it to the Chase in each of his first two full seasons and will again.

11. Clint Bowyer
In his second full season of Cup racing, Bowyer outperformed veteran RCR teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. Look for a repeat.

12. Greg Biffle
After struggling for a season and a half, Roush Fenway's No. 16 Ford team has its act together -- and Biffle has the engineering support that will propel him into the Chase. After finishing second to Cup champion Stewart in 2005, Biffle missed the cut in 2006 and '07. He's hungry.