As recently as five weeks ago, he looked like a lock. Kasey Kahne stood seventh in Sprint Cup points after finishing in the same position at the Aug. 3 event at Pocono Raceway, and liked his chances of climbing a little higher before the Chase. Little did he know it would be the last time he would see the top 10 until last Sunday night's race at Auto Club Speedway in Southern California -- which might have been too little, too late.

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Yeah, I was really surprised to see how quickly we lost a lot of spots and ended up maybe having a shot at making it in. It's going to be close to see if we can even get in the deal now.

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KASEY KAHNE

One of only four multiple race winners on NASCAR's premier series, Kahne has suffered a precipitous drop in recent weeks that's all but wrecked his chances of contending for the Sprint Cup crown. He enters Saturday night's final regular-season event at Richmond International Raceway 48 points behind Clint Bowyer for the 12th and final playoff spot -- not an insurmountable deficit by any means, but quite a chore given that Kahne would have to vault Bowyer and 13th-place David Ragan to qualify.

"It's disappointing, but at the same time, we have been a team all year and we have done everything that we possibly can to get the best finish as possible all year," said Kahne, who's won two races this season. "I think we've been pretty consistent with what we've had. Keep doing the best job we can. We're 14th now so, yeah, it's a bit of a surprise to see that. I think that we're better than that, but you know, now it's what it is, and we'll see if we can make it."

There is a precedent, even within his own shop. Former Evernham Motorsports driver Jeremy Mayfield was 55 points out of the 10th and (at the time) final Chase berth prior to the inaugural playoff in 2004. He came to Richmond in 14th, the same position Kahne is in today. He led 151 laps, vaulted five spots, and not only made the Chase but qualified in ninth position.

Of course, things are different today. The point differentials throughout the entire prospective Chase field aren't as narrow as they were then. Drivers and teams have learned how to get conservative and hold position. And in the five years since Mayfield, no driver outside looking in has turned a trip to Victory Lane into a berth in the Chase. There's a reason the feat is still referred to as "a Mayfield."

"We need to lead a lap, and hopefully we can qualify right up front and do it early in the race and just see where our car goes," Kahne said. "I think winning, that's kind of hard to get in. If we finish 10th, we'll probably have a really small chance of making it, would be my guess. So yeah, I think we need to go there to win the race and if we can, we'll have a good shot, and if we can't, then we'll see what happens from there and see how the points add up."

It's amazing that Kahne is even in this position at all, given that he won at Charlotte and Pocono and was a seemingly secure seventh in points as recently as a month ago. Then he finished 14th at Watkins Glen. His engine expired at Michigan. He was caught up in an accident caused by Casey Mears and Michael Waltrip at Bristol. And suddenly he was buried, a distant 14th in points, 56 points out of Chase position. Sunday night's eighth-place result at California barely made a dent.

"I was really surprised," Kahne said. "I went into Michigan kind of thinking that we had been running really strong, we had been right there every weekend. I felt like maybe we had a shot at maybe being sixth in points, maybe passing Jeff [Gordon] and Tony [Stewart], and then just racing happens. Things happen and we're 14th looking in now. Yeah, I was really surprised to see how quickly we lost a lot of spots and ended up maybe having a shot at making it in. It's going to be close to see if we can even get in the deal now."

For Kahne, missing the Chase would sting. This isn't Ragan, who's surprised everyone with his late-season rally, or even Bowyer, in just his second full season on the circuit. Kahne is a nine-time race winner who is widely viewed as Dodge's best championship hope. Only Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson have won more this year. His No. 9 team expects to contend. But when it comes to the Chase, the driver is still searching for the formula -- barring a miracle at Richmond, this would be the fourth time in Kahne's five-year Sprint Cup career that he's been left on the outside looking in.

"There's definitely some pressure, pressure that we've put on ourselves," he said. "Really, that was our goal and is our goal, to make the Chase this year. That was one of our big goals. Right now we are right on the outside. There's definitely pressure, I think, and that's a big part of the season is to make the Chase or not for the team and the company, for the sponsors. Everybody is a part of it and there's some pressure, and we'll do all we can and hopefully it will end up being enough. But you never know. Nobody knows until the end of Saturday night."