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Carl Edwards will continue to be aggressive trying to cut into Jimmie Johnson's lead.

Phoenix brings renewed confidence for Johnson

No. 48 has won last two at PIR, eight top-10 finishes

By David Caraviello, NASCAR.COM
November 7, 2008
09:23 PM EST
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AVONDALE, Ariz. -- How things have changed in five days for Jimmie Johnson. The flat, scrubby landscape of North Texas has given way to the stark, ochre slopes of the Estrella Mountains. A big, fast, cookie-cutter of a tri-oval has given way to a quirky 1-mile track. And all the frustration and insecurity of last Sunday evening have given way to the cool, calm confidence this driver and his team are renowned for.

We're showing up, and we want the trophy. We know what the points breaks are, we know what we need to do.

-- JIMMIE JOHNSON

The Sprint Cup tour is out West again this weekend, and just in time for a driver who feels as at home here as in the cockpit of his No. 48 car. Phoenix International Raceway is Jimmie Johnson country, and in more ways than one. He's more popular out here, given his roots in nearby Southern California. He once jounced across the desert as an off-road racer. And he's near-flawless on a racetrack where he's never failed to complete a competitive lap. No wonder he sounds like a man ready to shake off Carl Edwards and put a ribbon on his third consecutive championship in NASCAR's premier series.

"We're showing up, and we want the trophy," Johnson said Friday. "We know what the points breaks are, we know what we need to do. Our first goal would be to leave here and not have to worry about racing at Homestead. Will that happen? Probably not. Carl is going to be strong here. But if I can keep the points where they are, take the trophy home, we're in great shape."

Johnson holds a 106-point lead on Edwards with two events remaining, Sunday's race at Phoenix and next weekend's finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Five days ago it seemed that Edwards had seized momentum, winning at Texas Motor Speedway while Johnson finished an uncharacteristic 15th, and cutting 77 points off the lead. Now, the clear desert air brings a clearer perspective -- Johnson can win the title outright by averaging a seventh-place finish in his last two events. He can clinch Sunday if he gains 90 points on Edwards (the difference between first place and 23rd) and 52 on third-place driver Greg Biffle. He's won the last two races at Phoenix, finished outside the top 10 just twice in 10 career starts, and has completed all 3,123 laps contested here in that same span.

That kind of track record instills confidence. Two years ago Johnson came to Phoenix 17 points ahead of Matt Kenseth. Last year he arrived 30 points ahead of Jeff Gordon. In neither case was his lead ever threatened. Now, his advantage over Edwards is three times as big.

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"I think last weekend showed, you can't just defend," said Johnson, driving a car at Phoenix that won races at Martinsville and Richmond earlier in the year. "You can't be comfortable with any size points lead. You need to attack. You don't know what's going to take place. You don't know what's going to go on. So I'm still in attack mode. Certainly, with a 106-point lead, I don't need to take as much risk. There's a little bit different feel to it from what I had chasing Jeff last year. But the more I can look at what our team has been successful with, and how we've acted, the better we're going to do. That's staying aggressive. That's where we perform our best."

The same could be said of Edwards, who in the last two weekends has won back-to-back races, climbed from fourth to second in the Chase standings, and cut the difference between him and Johnson from 198 after Martinsville to the current 106. The Roush Fenway Racing driver has never won at Phoenix, but he does have five top-10 finishes in eight career starts. There's no real strategy, except to do what he's been doing -- lead laps, run up front, and keep the pressure on Johnson.

"As long as we maintain or gain some ground, I feel like we have a great chance at Miami, just based on the probability that anything can happen," said Edwards, driving a car that finished third at New Hampshire. "If we run well enough, we could theoretically run down Jimmie and still have a chance to beat him without anything going wrong with their car or their race. You add in the variables that could go wrong, as long we're within 130 or 140 points at Homestead, we're still mathematically in it. I guess the best thing would be to lead a bunch of laps, win the race, and do what we've been doing and gain a ton of points. But all we can do is the best that we can do. Just like we've said the last couple of weeks, go out there and be aggressive and race hard."

If Johnson leaves Phoenix with a 162-point lead -- 56 more than he has now -- he'll only have to start the finale at Homestead to secure the championship. But with a gambler like Edwards, who attempted a banzai move to beat Johnson at Kansas and won at Texas with a 69-lap fuel run, no one is taking anything for granted.

"I know Jimmie's not sitting absolutely comfortable at this point," said Dale Earnhardt Jr., Johnson's teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, "and that's because of Carl and his ability to really make anything happen at anytime."

For Johnson, Friday brought good omens: first in opening practice with a top speed of 132.871 mph, and first in pole qualifying with a lap of 134.725 mph. What a difference that was from the last time the No. 48 car was on the racetrack, a lap down and struggling to make up ground at Texas. Crew chief Chad Knaus and his group came to Phoenix ready to put that experience -- their worst finish since the August Bristol race, and their worst showing in the Chase in more than two years -- behind them.

"We look at last week and think, we gave some points away," Johnson said. "We got caught behind, we couldn't recover over the course of the race, the way the race worked out, and we lost some points. So that side of it still sticks around and is in my head and Chad's head, because we're racers. We feel like we're much better than where we finished, and that's a problem in my eyes. We can't have those days, regardless of where the points are. Again, though, that's behind us. That's last week. We're at one of our better tracks. We have a great points lead. It's just time to get out there and do it again."

Edwards placed 10th in opening practice, but his engine appeared to bog down in qualifying. He'll start 15th, well behind Johnson. "Looks like we're going to have to get on it [Saturday] in race trim," Edwards said. "We're going to have to pass Jimmie."

How big an advantage is that difference in starting position? "If he gets through there clean and has no problems and is on our bumper, it's no big deal," Johnson said. "It's just kind of how it is. But if that throws off their rhythm, there can be things that come from it. I'm just going to plan on the worst-case scenario for myself, which is that he has the fastest car and he's coming."

Oh, he's coming, all right. Given the risks Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne have taken to get this point, no one is counting them out.

"Definitely Jimmie and those guys are aware of where we're at, and that we've been closing in points," Edwards said. "I can't speak for them, but if I were in their position, I'd be nervous, because everybody sees how this sport can go. In a matter of a week or two weeks things can change drastically. I hope they're worried about us. I think they are."

The End

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Auto Parts 500

Race Lineup
Pos. Driver Make
1. Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet
2. Jamie McMurray Ford
3. Kurt Busch Dodge
4. David Reutimann Toyota
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet
6. Ryan Newman Dodge
7. Jeff Gordon Chevrolet
8. Denny Hamlin Toyota
9. Paul Menard Chevrolet
10. Mark Martin Chevrolet
15. Carl Edwards Ford

Auto Parts 500

Practice 1 Speeds
Pos. Driver Make Speed Time
1. Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet 132.871 27.094
2. Casey Mears Chevrolet 132.861 27.096
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet 132.846 27.099
4. Kyle Busch Toyota 132.787 27.111
5. Jamie McMurray Ford 132.533 27.163
6. Elliott Sadler Dodge 132.484 27.173
7. Jeff Gordon Chevrolet 132.406 27.189
8. A.J. Allmendinger Dodge 132.372 27.196
9. Ryan Newman Dodge 132.280 27.215
10. Carl Edwards Ford 132.212 27.229
• Complete Speeds click here

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