History shows prime time for wins, titles is early 30s (cont'd)

At one time, Ryan Newman's numbers were good enough to place him in that group. However, Newman has gone two full seasons without a victory -- and heads into age 30 needing six victories just to equal the same number of wins he achieved between 21 and 25.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s career numbers should place him here as well. He had 16 victories by age 30, but in what should be his prime, Junior has won just one race in the past two seasons and has fallen well behind an expected pace that would have netted him 30-plus victories for his career.

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The overwhelming majority of drivers fit the middle of the road model. The classic example is David Pearson, who broke out with eight victories at age 29, scored 15 at age 31 and continued to have success well into his early 40s. Darrell Waltrip, Ned Jarrett, Junior Johnson and Herb Thomas also fit that pattern.

Of today's drivers, Tony Stewart may be closest to the classic middle of the road career. His first wins came at the relative age of 28 and he's been a consistent performer throughout his 30s. Johnson is also on a similar pace -- and his career track mirrors that of legendary driver Fireball Roberts.

Before the 2007 season, Johnson and Roberts were matching each other, win for win. Through age 30, Johnson had 23 victories to Roberts' 21. However, Johnson pulled even with Roberts this season -- and should easily surpass Roberts' 33 wins by age 35, when Roberts died of injuries suffered in a fiery accident at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Other active drivers on the middle of the road track include Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle.

Then there are the drivers who achieved the majority of their success at an older age. Cale Yarborough, Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace, Lee Petty, Buck Baker, Bobby Isaac and Weatherly are all examples of drivers who began to win more consistently after the age of 35.

In addition to Jarrett, who won all but eight of his 32 races after the relative age of 40, other current drivers on the late bloomer track include Mark Martin and Michael Waltrip.

One statistic doesn't bode well for older veterans. Only 25 victories have been recorded by drivers with a relative age of 47 or older -- six of those by Earnhardt -- and only 10 for drivers who reach age 50. Of those, eight were achieved by the amazing Harry Gant, the ultimate late bloomer, who didn't win his first race until the relative age of 42.

So will the Rule of 31 play a role in the 2008 season? With J.J. Yeley switching to Hall of Fame Racing and David Stremme, still without a full-time Sprint Cup ride this season, it appears unlikely. But Ryan Newman and Casey Mears loom on the horizon as drivers with relative ages of 31 who could have breakout seasons in 2009.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.