History shows prime time for wins, titles is early 30s

When Jimmie Johnson won 10 races in 2007 and became the first driver to win back-to-back championships since Jeff Gordon, it not only proved Johnson's place among NASCAR's best, it also confirmed the link between a driver's relative age and his chances of success.

A comprehensive study of every race winner and championship since 1949 shows that drivers who are a relative age of 31 -- based on their age as of July 1 of that racing season -- win more races and championships, on average. And Johnson is just reaching his prime racing years, between the ages of 31 and 35, as a third of all the races have been won by drivers in that age bracket.

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Of the 2,174 races recorded, drivers with a relative age of 31 have won 201 times, or more than 9 percent of the time. The next closest is 29, with 164 wins, followed by 30, with 158. In addition, a driver's chances of winning races on average holds steady until age 40, when it drops significantly.

Consider that of the top 35 drivers on NASCAR's all-time victory list, only five did not win a race at age 31. NASCAR didn't exist until Lee Petty was well into his 30s, and Buck Baker, Joe Weatherly and Jack Smith had only limited starts by that age. Only Dale Jarrett -- who could be classified as a "late bloomer" -- competed in a full season at 31 without winning a race.

Including Johnson, drivers like Ned Jarrett, Herb Thomas, Davey Allison, Marvin Panch, Tim Richmond and all three Flock brothers achieved their greatest season win totals at a relative age of 31. Of the five drivers who were a relative age of 31 last season, four -- Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray and Juan Montoya -- won at least once.

So why does that age factor so significantly into success? There could be several reasons, including experience, stability, equipment and talent. In addition, the average age of a NASCAR starter has dropped over the years. There were 12 drivers under the age of 30 racing full time last season.

And the average age of a NASCAR champion has also skewed younger over time. Since Dale Jarrett's title in 1999 at the relative age of 42, no driver over age 36 has won a championship -- and three of the last six were recorded by drivers celebrating their 31st birthdays.

For the most part, when it comes to success by age, the majority of drivers fit three basic trends: wunderkind, middle of the road and late bloomer.

Richard Petty and Jeff Gordon are the prime examples of the wunderkind. Those two drivers account for slightly less than half of the 114 victories recorded by drivers age 25 or younger. They are also the only two drivers to have multiple NASCAR championship by age 29.

However, while Petty scored seven double-digit season victory totals between the ages of 29 and 37, Gordon went through a five-year span where he averaged less than four wins a season. However, his six-victory total in 2007 bodes well for improvement through the rest of his 30s.

Of the current crop of drivers, Kurt and Kyle Busch best fit the wunderkind mold. Kurt Busch is third behind Petty and Gordon for victories between the ages of 21-25 with 11 -- and of the five wins recorded by drivers age 21 or younger, Kyle Busch has four of them. Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne are also on the wunderkind track. (Continued)