History shows prime time for wins, titles is early 30s

When Jimmie Johnson won 10 races in 2007 and became the first driver to win back-to-back championships since Jeff Gordon, it not only proved Johnson's place among NASCAR's best, it also confirmed the link between a driver's relative age and his chances of success.

A comprehensive study of every race winner and championship since 1949 shows that drivers who are a relative age of 31 -- based on their age as of July 1 of that racing season -- win more races and championships, on average. And Johnson is just reaching his prime racing years, between the ages of 31 and 35, as a third of all the races have been won by drivers in that age bracket.

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Of the 2,174 races recorded, drivers with a relative age of 31 have won 201 times, or more than 9 percent of the time. The next closest is 29, with 164 wins, followed by 30, with 158. In addition, a driver's chances of winning races on average holds steady until age 40, when it drops significantly.

Consider that of the top 35 drivers on NASCAR's all-time victory list, only five did not win a race at age 31. NASCAR didn't exist until Lee Petty was well into his 30s, and Buck Baker, Joe Weatherly and Jack Smith had only limited starts by that age. Only Dale Jarrett -- who could be classified as a "late bloomer" -- competed in a full season at 31 without winning a race.

Including Johnson, drivers like Ned Jarrett, Herb Thomas, Davey Allison, Marvin Panch, Tim Richmond and all three Flock brothers achieved their greatest season win totals at a relative age of 31. Of the five drivers who were a relative age of 31 last season, four -- Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray and Juan Montoya -- won at least once.

So why does that age factor so significantly into success? There could be several reasons, including experience, stability, equipment and talent. In addition, the average age of a NASCAR starter has dropped over the years. There were 12 drivers under the age of 30 racing full time last season.

And the average age of a NASCAR champion has also skewed younger over time. Since Dale Jarrett's title in 1999 at the relative age of 42, no driver over age 36 has won a championship -- and three of the last six were recorded by drivers celebrating their 31st birthdays.

For the most part, when it comes to success by age, the majority of drivers fit three basic trends: wunderkind, middle of the road and late bloomer.

Richard Petty and Jeff Gordon are the prime examples of the wunderkind. Those two drivers account for slightly less than half of the 114 victories recorded by drivers age 25 or younger. They are also the only two drivers to have multiple NASCAR championship by age 29.

However, while Petty scored seven double-digit season victory totals between the ages of 29 and 37, Gordon went through a five-year span where he averaged less than four wins a season. However, his six-victory total in 2007 bodes well for improvement through the rest of his 30s.

Of the current crop of drivers, Kurt and Kyle Busch best fit the wunderkind mold. Kurt Busch is third behind Petty and Gordon for victories between the ages of 21-25 with 11 -- and of the five wins recorded by drivers age 21 or younger, Kyle Busch has four of them. Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne are also on the wunderkind track.

At one time, Ryan Newman's numbers were good enough to place him in that group. However, Newman has gone two full seasons without a victory -- and heads into age 30 needing six victories just to equal the same number of wins he achieved between 21 and 25.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s career numbers should place him here as well. He had 16 victories by age 30, but in what should be his prime, Junior has won just one race in the past two seasons and has fallen well behind an expected pace that would have netted him 30-plus victories for his career.

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The overwhelming majority of drivers fit the middle of the road model. The classic example is David Pearson, who broke out with eight victories at age 29, scored 15 at age 31 and continued to have success well into his early 40s. Darrell Waltrip, Ned Jarrett, Junior Johnson and Herb Thomas also fit that pattern.

Of today's drivers, Tony Stewart may be closest to the classic middle of the road career. His first wins came at the relative age of 28 and he's been a consistent performer throughout his 30s. Johnson is also on a similar pace -- and his career track mirrors that of legendary driver Fireball Roberts.

Before the 2007 season, Johnson and Roberts were matching each other, win for win. Through age 30, Johnson had 23 victories to Roberts' 21. However, Johnson pulled even with Roberts this season -- and should easily surpass Roberts' 33 wins by age 35, when Roberts died of injuries suffered in a fiery accident at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Other active drivers on the middle of the road track include Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle.

Then there are the drivers who achieved the majority of their success at an older age. Cale Yarborough, Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace, Lee Petty, Buck Baker, Bobby Isaac and Weatherly are all examples of drivers who began to win more consistently after the age of 35.

In addition to Jarrett, who won all but eight of his 32 races after the relative age of 40, other current drivers on the late bloomer track include Mark Martin and Michael Waltrip.

One statistic doesn't bode well for older veterans. Only 25 victories have been recorded by drivers with a relative age of 47 or older -- six of those by Earnhardt -- and only 10 for drivers who reach age 50. Of those, eight were achieved by the amazing Harry Gant, the ultimate late bloomer, who didn't win his first race until the relative age of 42.

So will the Rule of 31 play a role in the 2008 season? With J.J. Yeley switching to Hall of Fame Racing and David Stremme, still without a full-time Sprint Cup ride this season, it appears unlikely. But Ryan Newman and Casey Mears loom on the horizon as drivers with relative ages of 31 who could have breakout seasons in 2009.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.