With votes still coming in, 2008 race too close to call

LAS VEGAS -- We've still got two more days of running cars with primer paint jobs out west and some "experts" are ready to declare a winner in the 2008 championship.

"It'll either be a Hendrick or a Gibbs car," they excitedly declare.

OK. We haven't run a lap for a single one of those "five valuable Sprint Cup bonus points" -- which all get thrown out after 26 races anyway -- and we've already eliminated all but seven drivers from title contention? I've heard of early exit poll sampling, but how can you determine a winner if the first election's not for another three weeks?

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Sure, those two teams have accounted for 10 of the last 13 Cup champions. Sure, Hendrick Motorsports was unbelievably dominant last season, and it just went out and added Dale Earnhardt Jr. to the mix. Sure, Joe Gibbs' stable of Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin and ex-Hendrick hired hand Kyle Busch have shown impressive speed with Toyota power.

Based on past performance, those two teams should be considered the favorites. But even someone like Busch, who can claim alumni status in both camps, sees a wide-open field in 2008.

"There's still great race teams out there, like Evernham, Childress, Roush, those guys," he said. "They're going to be right there, too. They're going to be fast. They're going to be wanting to take the spotlight away from us, too."

I'm not one for comparing testing speeds, mainly because some teams may be trying exotic setups and working on balance instead of going for fast laps. But given the variety of teams near the top of Tuesday morning's chart, it will take more than two to tango this season.

What about Roush Fenway Racing, with Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle? What about Richard Childress Racing's Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton? The Dodges of Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne have been near the top of the leaderboard this week. And don't count out Martin Truex Jr. and DEI.

And as Casey Mears proved at Lowe's Motor Speedway last May, the fastest car doesn't always come home first. Pit strategy and pure dumb luck sometimes has as much to do with finishing position as performance.

If 2008 is a winner-take-all game of Texas Hold 'Em, we don't know exactly what cards each team is holding right now. Let's wait a few races and see how the hand plays out before we think we know who's going to take the pot.

Five races is a nice, round number. Plus, the driver who has been third in the standings after Bristol has won the championship in each of the past three seasons. Johnson was third in the points after Bristol last year -- and in 2006. Oh, and Stewart was third in the standings after five races in 2005.

I'd probably have a better chance of hitting the jackpot on one of the one-armed bandits in the casinos a few miles south of here than thinking that I can narrow the field of prospective 2008 championship candidates at this point.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.