History shows a good 500 can lead to a strong season

Ryan Newman is off to a fast start in 2008, based on his last-lap pass of Tony Stewart to win the 50th Daytona 500. But how does a victory in stock-car racing's premier event translate into a Sprint Cup championship? The odds are certainly in his favor.

Newman missed the Chase the past two seasons, and hadn't won since the fall race at Loudon, N.H., in 2005. But if past performance holds sway, there's a good chance he'll be in the thick of the title chase by the time the season winds down.

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It depends on whether Newman is on a path that matches Jimmie Johnson, the 2006 winner, or Kevin Harvick, who won in 2007. Johnson went on to win the championship after visiting Victory Lane at Daytona. Harvick didn't win another race all year and wound up 10th in the standings behind Johnson.

Newman would do well to avoid a post-Daytona hangover similar to Harvick's, when Harvick failed to post a top-10 finish in five of the next six races.

Eight times in the past 49 years, the winner of stock-car racing's biggest event has gone on to claim the title in the same season. Lee Petty did it the year he edged Johnny Beauchamp in the inaugural Daytona 500. Not surprisingly, son Richard accomplished the feat four times. Cale Yarborough completed the double in 1977. Jeff Gordon did the same in 1997.

The Daytona 500 winner has finished in the top 10 in the final standings in six of the last 11 seasons. Since NASCAR changed the points structure in 2004, three of the four 500 winners have made the Chase. Gordon is the exception: He won the 500 but finished 11th in the points in 2005.

Still, winning the 500 doesn't guarantee season-long success. Michael Waltrip has never cracked the top 10 despite having two Daytona 500 trophies on his mantle. And Ward Burton wound up 25th in the standings after his win in the 2003 race.

A good finish in the season-opener, however, does seem to pay off later in the season. In 63 percent of the seasons since 1959, the eventual champion came away from Daytona with a top-10 finish. If you can't win the race, it's best to finish fifth. Six champions have done that, so keep an eye on Reed Sorenson.

Surprisingly, no driver who has finished 10th in the 500 has gone on to take the title. Jeff Gordon came close last season when he wound up as runner-up to teammate Johnson. Perhaps Greg Biffle can snap that jinx in 2008.

At the same time, a bad performance in the 500 doesn't mean that your championship chances are shot. In fact, 12 champions have finished 20th or worse at Daytona and still captured the crown. Darrell Waltrip finished 36th in 1981 and 20th in 1982 -- and won the championship in both seasons. Dale Jarrett is a three-time Daytona 500 winner, but he wound up 37th in the 1999 race, and still battled back to take the title.

Johnson is chasing Yarborough's record of three consecutive championships, and ironically, both drivers captured theirs in like fashion. In 1976, Yarborough finished 42nd and last in the Daytona 500 and won the championship. The next season, he won the 500 -- and won the championship again.

Johnson did it in opposite order. The year after winning the 500 and the championship in the same season, he promptly went out and finished a dismal 39th a year ago -- then turned right around and won 10 races on his way to a second consecutive crown.

In fact, two drivers have proven you can finish last in the Daytona 500 and not wreck your championship hopes. In addition to Yarborough, Tony Stewart was 43rd in 2002 and rallied to win the title.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer.