Twelve may enter, but really only three can win (cont'd)

Looking at those numbers, it's no surprise Edwards, Johnson and Busch have swept not only the last six, but even the pair of races before that, by Busch.

Laps led leads to bonus points, and don't you know, the trio paces the league there. In the last six races, Johnson has 35 bonus points; Busch has 30 and Edwards, 25. Earnhardt Jr. has run well enough to accrue 20, but no one else has more than 15.

Those bonus points do become moot at New Hampshire -- the opening event in the Chase -- but the ability to consistently accrue them could be the difference in winning the championship.

Could make it three

Winning three consecutive championships in anything is no easy task, but Joe Menzer says Jimmie Johnson has what it takes to do it.

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Total points in the six-race stretch open the door for a couple dark-horse selections, but with a qualifier.

Edwards has the most points since Indianapolis, with 863 and as you'd expect, Busch is third, with 751. Johnson, hurt by a 33rd place finish at Bristol, actually lags back in seventh in point production, with 697.

But Johnson hasn't won the last two championships accidentally, and it's in the Chase that he's shone in his two championship seasons, with five victories, two more than the next man, Tony Stewart, who has three.

Kevin Harvick is the ultimate sleeper. In the last six races, he's accrued the second-best point total, 772; earned via five top-10 finishes. Harvick won two Chase races in 2006, but the alarming thing for him in the last six races is no laps led.

Stewart, who's won one championship "the old-fashioned way" and one via the Chase format, is the ultimate sleeping giant. Stewart's led only one lap in the last six races, but his consistency has enabled the fifth-best point total. If he can focus solely on his last 11 races with Joe Gibbs Racing and win a couple times, he could contend.

Matt Kenseth was always counted on to challenge for the championship in the "standard cars" used in the past. And while the new chassis has proven to be tough to come to grips with, Kenseth has the fourth-best point total in the last six races, proving his timing is still right-on.

If he's able to figure in this championship, Earnhardt Jr. will get the enigma award for the season. For more than the first half of the year, Earnhardt was the Hendrick standard bearer, but his last top-10 came eight races ago. That said, and his 10th-best point total in the last six aside, Earnhardt is still fourth in the championship, will probably go into the Chase in the same position and if he goes back to the formulas he and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. employed early in the season, could have a fulfilling finale.

Greg Biffle and Hamlin have tall tasks to complete, to maintain their current hot streaks. But both have top-three point finishes on their resumes and they can get it done; but in Hamlin's case, if a disaster equivalent to what befell him at Richmond in the spring doesn't happen again.

The Jeffs, Burton and Gordon, are the shocks of the walk on the eve of the Chase.

The only reason Burton, who has the worst point total over the last six races of the 12 drivers currently in the Chase, is still in fifth in the standings is because he was so good, and so consistent earlier in the season; but only one top 10 in the last six races is a skein he needs to break.

For Gordon, there is a very real possibility he might miss his second Chase of the five held. In the last six races Gordon has dropped four spots in the standings, has led only 11 laps -- in three races, which is far from competitive -- and has two finishes worse than 29th. It's a good thing the cutoff race is at Richmond, but Gordon has struggled at many places where he previously thrived, so this is no gimme for the four-time champ.

The thinnest ice is what Clint Bowyer is skating on in 12th. Bowyer did win at Richmond in the spring, but shock of shocks, that's the last time he led a lap! He has pulled well in the last three races, as his biggest challenger, David Ragan, surged; but Bowyer, with only a 17-point advantage over Ragan coming into Richmond, needs to have his head on a swivel all night Saturday.

Ragan, obviously, would be the story of the season if he makes the Chase. He's scored two top-fives and three top-10s in the last six events, has led three races with a specific eye to gaining bonus points and whenever he's made an error; he's shaken it off to continue pressing forward.

If anyone from 10th on back falters, Ragan could be the one to step into his first Chase in only his second try.

Kahne, on the other hand, might be looking at a bewildering Chase defeat for the fourth time in five years, keyed off the worst six-race point total of the top-14 drivers, only one race led in the last six, and two 40th place finishes. In all, that's not a Chase-worthy standard.

In the end, the "lead trio" has proven they can win at every venue the Chase visits.

But if he continues at the pace he's established in the last six races -- which includes six top-10 finishes -- Edwards, who's picked up three spots in the standings in the process, but more importantly gained 30 critical Chase seeding bonus points for his three wins in that time, will be the champion, as predicted by owner Jack Roush after Edwards won his fourth race of the season, at Pocono Raceway in August.

But that may only be if, as many have supposed, that Busch might have a self-destructive episode. He's had a couple this season, but the alarming thing for the competition is he's readily bounced back, and currently has a record 18 victories across NASCAR's three national tours.

And why is Busch a total bad-ass? Because, with nothing to gain on the last lap at Fontana last weekend he had his car hung all the way out sideways coming off Turn 4 racing for seventh! He held onto it, never lifted and beat the guy -- Kahne -- who needs every point he can get; and it was just incredible.

But nigh onto incredible just begins to describe what Johnson has done the last two-and-a-half seasons. This has proven to be his time, Fontana proved that crew chief Chad Knaus and his Hendrick Motorsports team are ready; and despite Busch and Edwards' success this season, it would take a brave person to bet against him.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer