Question is: Who can step up and catch Johnson? (cont'd)

Last year, Gordon performed at an almost astounding rate in the Chase, according to him an average finish of just over fifth. In the last six races, it wasn't good enough, as Johnson outscored him 1,042-956. After Gordon, only Matt Kenseth came close, with 926 points, and he's really in too deep of a hole -- at 245 points back -- to contend this season.

Two years ago, Johnson proved a late chase could work, as he was 156 points behind at this point. But he scored 1,033 points in the final six races, 173 more than the next-best person, Denny Hamlin, who after his brutal accident at Talladega is physically OK but theoretically dead in this year's Chase.

Who's still alive? If history means much, maybe the three guys who are in position to mount the best challenge are right where they want to be, sort of.

Carl Edwards is 72 points back, in second. On the plus side, Edwards had a league-leading point total, 909, in 2005 -- his first Chase -- when he moved from sixth to third the last six races. But last year, after missing the Chase in 2006, Edwards had an anemic eighth-best point total in that stretch.

Obviously, Edwards has run better than he ever has in his career this season, so he's hoping ancient history will be just that. And with a couple good tracks for him, namely Lowe's and Atlanta, coming up, he's not out of the picture.

Greg Biffle is 77 points out, in third, and for better or worse, with little recent history to support him he remains the enigmatic dark horse in this field. In 2005, the last year he was in the Chase, Biffle scored 902 points in this stretch and won the Homestead finale to secure second in the final standings.

Again, Biffle's team in 2008 is nowhere near the same unit it was in those Chase-dry years of 2006-2007, but it's still gut check time for them.

If Johnson is to be beaten by anyone, perhaps Jeff Burton doing it would be the most popular upset possible. But if it's indeed possible might be the question. A solid fourth at Talladega was a big step for Burton, whose team has wallowed along for the past couple months in a relatively solid, if unspectacular fashion.

Two years ago, Burton's stretch production was, to be kind, statistically not good, as he fell from leading the standings to seventh in the end, based on only 630 points in that stretch. Last year, Burton improved considerably in points made, to 877, but that was still only fourth-best among his competition, and only improved him one spot in the final rundown.

But Burton enters this stretch run only 99 points out -- far from the 336 he was out at this point a year ago. And that scent of blood may be all the quiet Virginian needs. Time will tell for all of them.

Of the rest of the guys in sniffing distance, you just don't see them making a Johnson-like charge. Clint Bowyer's out 152, Kevin Harvick 171 and Talladega winner Tony Stewart 203.

Stewart's the only one even remotely capable of creating the necessary fire to score the wins and high finishes necessary, but that's the vintage Stewart. A year ago, Stewart was no better than 10th-best in stretch production and that won't improve much this year.

There's plenty of intrigue left in this Chase. Who will actually win the races is an interesting question, despite recent history telling us it's almost predictable. If Kyle Busch doesn't bounce back and win at least one race in this stretch it will be the biggest shock of the season.

What will the game of musical chairs at the back of the field mean for the few remaining empty seats and will Scott Speed be able to make races, if he has to? And interestingly enough, might A.J. Allmendinger enable Michael Waltrip Racing to bump his old Red Bull Racing Team back out of the top 35?

We'll see.

But Johnson's record at his team's house, also known as Lowe's Motor Speedway, Martinsville, and even Atlanta, is virtually without equal in recent history.

So let the Chase begin -- and let's see if Johnson can be caught.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer