Johnson's run prompts prospect of an early clinch

It all came down to math. They couldn't ignore it, couldn't push it aside, couldn't force it to conform to the limitations of the NASCAR schedule. The numbers were there, plain and obvious, impossible to disregard. So two weeks before the event, the telephone calls and the planning began. They would need a portable stage, of course, and the big wooden trophy, and the thick leather jacket the champion of each season proudly slips into. They would need to delegate track officials and public relations reps and security men, all of them required to manage celebrations going on concurrently on the frontstretch and in Victory Lane. And so the wheels began turning, and the facility formerly known as North Carolina Speedway began bracing for the clinch.

This was 2003, now five years ago, and the last time a champion of NASCAR's premier series clinched the title before the final race of the season. Matt Kenseth had only one race victory that year, but he was the very definition of consistency, and with two events remaining had built a 228-point advantage on Dale Earnhardt Jr. He finished fourth that sunny Sunday in the North Carolina Sand Hills, keeping his margin at 226, and even though a final event remained seven days later, magnums of champagne were sprayed and the trophy was presented and the new champion was all but officially crowned. They went through the whole routine again the next week in Homestead, Fla., even though the race itself was meaningless.

Then came the Chase, a playoff system that resets and narrows point margins between the top drivers for the final 10 races, a procedure that while not specifically designed to prolong the drama until the season's final event, certainly seems inclined to it. And as advertised, the endgame the last four seasons has been played out under a South Florida sunset, the coronation on hold until the last lap of the last race. But now comes Jimmie Johnson, storming toward a third consecutive Cup title like a big cat running down a gimpy gazelle, and blowing up the Chase like he's blown by so many other contenders the past seven weeks.

After his somewhat miraculous runner-up finish last Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Johnson -- who was still trailing at this point in each of his past two championship campaigns -- now holds a 183-point lead on Carl Edwards. No driver in Chase history has ever enjoyed an advantage as big. He now heads to Texas and Phoenix, two racetracks where he's won within the last 12 months. And very soon, the folks at Phoenix International Raceway may be faced with the prospect of laying the groundwork for an unexpected celebration, the first early championship clinch since Kenseth did it at Rockingham five years ago.

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"Two weeks in, you would have to know there was a possibility mathematically that it could happen at your place. Then you go through the race before yours, and now it's real. There's a real possibility this might happen. So you've got to plan for that," said Chris Browning, the president of Darlington Raceway, and the general manager at North Carolina Speedway when Kenseth clinched a week early in 2003. "You've got your normal, pre-event checklist of everything you've got to do, but then there's a whole new component of, OK, if the championship is decided, we go into plan B. Everybody worked great together, and I'm sure they do today, to make sure it all went off without a hitch. It is something you definitely have to work on and plan and think through. It's not like you just roll a trailer out there and it all unfolds. There's a lot of planning that goes into from everybody's perspective."

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How realistic is the prospect of Johnson clinching before the final race of the season? More realistic with each passing week. Leaving Atlanta, Johnson has a 183-point margin on Edwards. Through seven Chase races, his worst result is ninth. Say Johnson finishes ninth Sunday at Texas, while Edwards wins and leads the most laps. Johnson would still have a 126-point lead heading to Phoenix. And if, coming out of Arizona, his advantage over Edwards is 196 points -- 162, the most any driver can make up in one race, plus 34, the amount Johnson would earn for finishing last at Homestead -- it's game over. To do that, Johnson would have to gain 70 points on Edwards at Phoenix, the difference between winning and placing 16th or worse.

Of course, possibilities abound. Johnson's car could blow up at Texas, Edwards could win, and the executives at Homestead-Miami Speedway could be turning gleeful handstands, ensured that the title will be decided at their track. But the aforementioned scenario is still quite plausible. In fact, it's probably a bit conservative, given that the entire thing hinges on Johnson finishing ninth at Texas and Edwards winning and leading the most laps. Flip those two results, and the number Johnson needs to hit to clinch at Phoenix grows considerably smaller. And if Johnson comes out of Phoenix with just a 162-point lead -- 21 points fewer than the advantage he now enjoys -- he'll have essentially clinched the title, needing only to start at Homestead to secure a record-tying third championship.

But that last prospect wouldn't bring the possibility of the pomp and circumstance of a genuine clinch, the kind of treatment Kenseth was afforded in 2004. That was a season full of ceremony already, with R.J. Reynolds on the way out as longtime title sponsor of NASCAR's top series, and former champions making parade laps before each of the year's final events. At Rockingham, it was Benny Parsons and Bobby Labonte. While Bill Elliott celebrated the race win in Victory Lane, a temporary stage with the championship backdrop was rolled out to the start-finish line. Kenseth received his trophy, received his leather jacket -- who knows why, but they've been giving them out forever -- and was driven around the old racetrack in the back of a pickup truck.

"I think they played it up pretty good," Browning remembered. "They had the stage, they gave him the trophy, they gave him the jacket. They did a pretty nice job of recognizing it, I thought. They could have downsized the celebration a whole lot more if they had wanted to, but I don't remember that being the case at all. They pulled the stage right out there where everybody could see it. You actually had a better view of the stage and what was going on there, presenting him with the trophy, and all the hoopla around the championship, than you did of the race winner."

Browning oversaw another early clinch, this one on the circuit formerly known as a Busch Series, when Martin Truex Jr. secured the 2004 title at Darlington, one race before the end of the season. It was a similar setup -- stage rolled out, jacket and trophy presented, even car owner Teresa Earnhardt making a rare appearance. More recently, NASCAR has seemed to tone down early clinches, saving the show for Homestead. Carl Edwards clinched the Busch title two races early at Texas last year, and the driver was presented the trophy in a low-key ceremony held along pit road.

What would happen should Johnson clinch at Phoenix? According to NASCAR, the champion would be recognized, but the formal ceremony would wait until Homestead. Would the Sprint Cup be in attendance? A spokesperson for the title sponsor said the sterling silver championship trophy is brought to every Chase race for media opportunities, will indeed be on site in Phoenix, and that Sprint and NASCAR are currently working on what an early celebration might look like. As for the racetrack? Like Rockingham years ago, they're waiting on the moment when the math becomes too pressing to ignore, and the wheels begin turning again. "We'll be able to put something together quickly," a Phoenix International Raceway spokesman said. "Things go fast in this business."

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writer