Five (almost) drivers ready for a breakout year in '09

Every year the hope exists for those drivers who have thus far been unable to establish themselves as contenders in the Cup Series. Can they finally put together that breakout season? Our staff has identified a handful of hopefuls.

(Editor's note: Five breakout drivers is the third of a six-week installment to run on Mondays examining different elements of NASCAR.)

• First week: Five fantastic finishes of 2008
• Second week: Five key moments of 2008
• Fourth week: Five drivers who could struggle in 2009
• Fifth week: Five who will break into win column in 2009
• Sixth week: Five who should be in first Hall of Fame class

A.J. Allmendinger

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A.J. Allmendinger has no wins, no top-fives and two top-10s in 44 career starts.

The kid was a wreck, that much was simple to see. During his trying rookie season of 2007, A.J. Allmendinger wore failure around his neck like a hangman's noose. You could see it in his eyes, hear it in his voice. Nineteen times -- 19 times! -- he failed to make the show. Rumors swirled that he was headed back to open-wheel cars, where he had been a championship contender before his move to NASCAR. It was only a matter of time, it seemed, before he packed up and left.

David Caraviello

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Except that Allmendinger didn't leave. He stuck with it, and through trials and tribulations and team changes and harsh words from other drivers, he got better.

There was one span this past summer where he finished inside the top 20 four consecutive times, a small victory for a driver progressing in baby steps. He closed this past year by finishing 16th or better in six of his last eight starts. The guy's clearly getting it.

Is he going to contend for the Sprint Cup title anytime soon? Not likely. But he's very close to being someone who can run in the top 15 consistently, and perhaps steal a victory down the line.

Gillett Evernham Motorsports must think so, as well. He drove the organization's No. 10 car for the final five races of 2008, and GEM has tabbed Allmendinger to drive its No. 19 car in 2009. Good for him. After losing his ride at Red Bull, the guy has proven he deserves another chance.

(Update: GEM has decided to leave Elliott Sadler in the 19 car, and Allmendinger is expected to drive the 10 for eight races in 2009 and more depending on sponsorship. For full story, click here.)

• Allmendinger to drive 19 car in '09 | 2008 Results | Superstore | Community

Joey Logano

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Joey Logano didn't finish better than 32nd in three starts in 2008, two of them in the 96 car of Hall of Fame Racing.

Of the youngsters in the Cup Series, if they haven't already had their "breakout" season, then it probably isn't going to happen. Sure, there are a couple of guys who could still climb the ladder of success -- A.J. Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Brad Coleman -- but they are still a few years away.

Bill Kimm

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There is one driver who will make an impression immediately in the Cup Series, however, and it's Joey Logano. This season is a perfect storm for Logano, who sits poised to capitalize on some pretty good timing and luck.

Logano has been handed the keys to a two-time championship team in the No. 20 at Joe Gibbs Racing. He's been gift-wrapped one of the best crew chiefs in the business in Greg Zipadelli; gets a sponsor in Home Depot which is one of the most visible in NASCAR; and gets two championship-caliber teammates to learn from in Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Oh, and if that's not enough, has an owner in Joe Gibbs who will do everything and anything to ensure the 20 team doesn't miss a beat now that Tony Stewart has left for an ownership role of his own.

But the cherry on top of this incredible sundae is the fact Logano is the real deal. It's one thing to hear guys like Mark Martin talk about Logano; it's another to see the teenager take a Nationwide pole in his second race and win in just his third time out. In 19 Nationwide races last season, Logano had an average finish of 9.3 with 14 top-10s and one finish worse than 18th.

There are good drivers stuck on bad teams who will never get the opportunity to shine. To succeed in NASCAR, talent isn't enough -- a driver needs to catch on in the right place. Logano has the talent and has landed the premier ride at one of the best organizations in the sport. It's the perfect storm Logano will ride all the way to the top.

• Logano ready to go full throttle | 2008 Results | Superstore | Community

Casey Mears

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Casey Mears has one win, 12 top-fives and 42 top-10s in 216 career starts.

All eyes might still be on Joey Logano next season but the true intrigue will lie with Casey Mears. This is a driver who heated up at the end of last season; his top-10 finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway ended his two-season tenure at Hendrick Motorsports on a high note and will be the momentum he needs to start the 2009 season strong at Richard Childress Racing in the No. 07 car.

Raygan Swan

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Mears was replaced at Hendrick by Mark Martin due to performance issues so one could argue that this season is do-or-die time for the 30-year-old driver who has never finished higher than 14th in points in five Cup seasons and has just one win.

If anyone can foster the talent and build the confidence within a driver it is Richard Childress. He's built a successful track record hiring the dark horse, or the not-so-obvious pick of the garage. Recall Dale Earnhardt in 1984. Also, skeptics said Jeff Burton was past his prime when RCR hired him mid-season in 2004, and Clint Bowyer was an unknown dirt track kid out of Kansas.

Now, Childress' faith is in Mears. During the final 10 races of 2008, Mears finished outside the top 15 only three times and he joins RCR with seasoned crew chief Gil Martin, who helped Bowyer make the Chase two years in a row.

Free from the pressure that is the superpower known as Hendrick, and no longer in the shadows of Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr., Mears will find stability and finally have his breakout season.

• Mears on the move again | 2008 Results | Superstore | Community

David Ragan

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David Ragan has no wins, eight top-fives and 17 top-10s in 74 career starts.

David Ragan was the young newcomer that former two-time Cup champion Tony Stewart christened "a dart without feathers" as he attempted to make his way into the sport's premier level. But since that ignominious Martinsville debut two years ago, Ragan has made so much progress in his racing ability and its accompanying respect that the Roush Fenway Racing driver is poised to become the Sprint Cup Series' 2009 breakout sensation.

Dave Rodman

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Ragan has shown steady improvement as he and veteran crew chief Jimmy Fennig log laps together. Ragan epitomized that, not only by fashioning a strong run at making the 2008 Chase in only his second full season in Cup racing, but by scoring the highest point total by a non-Chase driver in the final 10 races -- and a total better than four championship-contending drivers, including 73 points more than Stewart.

Ragan tuned up for his career breakout season by amassing six top-five finishes -- including matching his career best of third, twice, at Michigan and Talladega -- and 14 top-10s. In successive seasons, Ragan's finished fifth and fourth in Nationwide Series points while also running full time in Cup, and stepping back to a part-time Nationwide schedule should help.

But despite cutting back, Ragan's breakout will include his first Nationwide victory, as well as qualifying for the Chase and winning at least one Cup race.

• Ragan praised for improvment | 2008 Results | Superstore | Community

No one

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NASCAR's have-nots will remain in relative obscurity in 2009.

When two-thirds of last year's win total was represented by just three drivers and the Chase consisted of four teams and no newcomers, it's hard to imagine anyone stepping up in 2009 to challenge those ranks.

Jarrod Breeze

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Casey Mears disappointed in his two years at Hendrick Motorsports and was jettisoned in favor of the re-charged Mark Martin. Jamie McMurray has had three years to prove himself at Roush Fenway Racing but so far has only proved right the doubters. Martin Truex Jr. took a step back after making the Chase in 2008.

Juan Montoya has basically done nothing in two years. Brian Vickers, David Reutimann, Reed Sorenson. Also-rans, still. With the great divide as it is today in NASCAR, it's nearly impossible for any driver not backed by the Big Four (Hendrick, Roush, Childress, Gibbs) to make any headway. And even driving for one of those teams is no guarantee (see: Mears, McMurray, J.J. Yeley, the latter circa 2006-07 with Gibbs). Heck, 2008 rookie of the year Regan Smith enters 2009 without a ride, or a top-10 finish in 41 career starts.

The best bets for 2009 remain teen idol Joey Logano fulfilling his promise in the 20 car at Gibbs, and David Ragan's continued progression in the 6 car at Roush. Beyond that, 2009 will look much the same as it has in recent years -- no first-time winners in 2008 and a grand total of 16 different drivers having participated in the Chase since 2006.

Which driver is primed for a breakout season in 2009?
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