Success is fleeting: Five who could struggle in '09

They made the Chase in 2008. Two of them are former champions. Yet, all enter 2009 with questions to answer. They are the five drivers who could struggle this season.

(Editor's note: Five drivers who could struggle is the fourth of a six-week installment to run on Mondays examining different elements of NASCAR.)

• First week: Five fantastic finishes of 2008
• Second week: Five key moments of 2008
• Third week: Five breakout drivers of 2009
• Fifth week: Five who will break into win column in 2009
• Sixth week: Five who should be in first Hall of Fame class

Greg Biffle

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Will the real Greg Biffle please stand up?

Yes, Greg Biffle won two races in 2008, a better-than-average season for him aside from his 2005 firestorm. Yes, Biffle made the Chase, won two races in it, and finished third behind the two-man show of Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards. But considering Biffle's on-off past in the Cup Series, he's at a crossroads once again in his career.

Josh Pate

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Biffle has raced full time in the Cup Series for six seasons, and only two of those have been Chase-worthy. In 2005, Biffle finished second in points and reeled off a series-high six victories with an average finish of 11.9. It was for sure his breakout year after finishing 20th and 17th in points the previous two seasons.

But the following two years left Biffle outside of the Chase in 13th (2006) and 14th (2007) with average finishes of 18.8 and 18.5, respectively.

So which is the real Biffle? The one peeking through the window? Or the one dining with royalty?

The roller coaster has climbed the hill again, and now Biffle can go in two directions. He has shown, especially this past season, that he's patient enough to endure the problems and roadblocks (namely, his pit crew) of championship stature. But history says 2005 and 2008 were outside the norm -- two Chase appearances in four years isn't consistent, no matter where a driver finished in points. So for Biffle to prove history wrong, he's got to prove he can string consecutive successful seasons together.

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Clint Bowyer

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Clint Bowyer starts from scratch in 2009 with a new car and new team.

Back-to-back seasons with top-five finishes in points. Two wins, 12 top-five finishes and 34 top-10s the past two seasons. ... And Clint Bowyer gets bumped to the new team on the block. Such is life for Bowyer, one of my top-five guys on the circuit and among a handful of up-and-coming drivers that I would want driving my team's car.

Duane Cross

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But he deserves better. Such is the case in today's NASCAR, better isn't always what you get. But it still sucks; the guy practically built the Jack Daniel's name with the Cup Series (sure, Dave Blaney was the first driver of the No. 07 but he had only two top-10s during the 2005 season). And now Bowyer is tasked with getting RCR's No. 33 into the show each week; a new car with a new crew and zero owner points.

When Richard Childress opted to sign Casey Mears -- and the behind-the-scenes sponsorship maneuvering began -- you knew how this game was going to end: Bowyer would get the short end of the stick, or so it seemed. As it is, Bowyer most likely will have a better season than Mears; he's a better driver, so you expect it. But that -- having a better season -- is relative.

Bowyer will struggle in 2009, compared to what we've come to expect from him. It will take time for the team to round into championship form. But rest assured, the team will hit its stride, though it may be too much to expect a run at the Chase. If the team fails to make the playoffs, it won't be for lack of driving ability. Chalk it up to taking one step backwards in order to take two steps forward in the long run.

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Denny Hamlin

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At 28, 2006 rookie of the year Denny Hamlin is now the oldest of JGR's three drivers. But is he the third wheel?

Call it a hunch. Call it whatever you will.

But Denny Hamlin could just be one of those drivers who blossomed early and now is going to need to spend a year or two leveling off and maturing before realizing his true potential. That means he might just take a step back this season after making the Chase in each of his first three seasons as a full-time driver for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Joe Menzer

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Last year Hamlin finished a respectable eighth in the final point standings, with one win (at Martinsville in the sixth event of the season), 12 top-five and 18 top-10 finishes. But his average finish of 15.4 actually was his worst since he began driving full time at the Cup level in 2006, as was his total of 94.5 percent of laps completed. Unlike JGR teammate Kyle Busch, Hamlin struggled to get his Toyota-powered No. 11 car to Victory Lane. He seemed poised, particularly at the beginning of the season, to grab several victories. But his momentum and feel for the new car seemed to fade as the season progressed and Toyota-backed cars on the whole lost much of their magic on the intermediate tracks that comprise the bulk of the all-important Chase schedule.

Hey, at least Hamlin was there in contention when the Chase commenced, as he has been every year he's run a full schedule. That simply might not be the case in 2009 as many of JGR's resources and attention are shifted to the No. 20 car that will be driven by supposed phenom and much-hyped Joey Logano and a probable championship push by the No. 18 team of Busch. All of which could leave Hamlin as the odd driver out at JGR, or at least feeling like it, and how he handles the new dynamics back at the shop likely will have much to do with how he succeeds -- or struggles -- on the track.

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Matt Kenseth

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After years of stability, Matt Kenseth will have a new crew chief for the second season in a row.

As one of two drivers to make the Chase in all five years of its existence, it's hard to imagine a NASCAR postseason without the No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford driven by Matt Kenseth, but the reality is that could happen in 2009.

Bill Kimm

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Since winning the title in 2003, Kenseth has been consistent, but has not proven to be a title contender. The '06 season was easily his best, with four wins, 15 top-fives and 21 top-10s and ending the season second in points -- but it's been downhill since.

In '07, Kenseth had just two wins and 13 top-fives and last season was his first without a win since 2001. Also, Kenseth posted just nine top-fives last year with an average finish of 16.4, the second-worst of his career.

The '08 season is significant because it was the first without his longtime crew chief, Robbie Reiser, on top of the pit box -- and the results were below par, finishing a disappointing 11th in points. Chip Bolin was his '08 crew chief, but he will be replaced in '09 by Drew Blickensderfer, who's had a ton of success in the Nationwide Series.

But despite Blickensderfer's triumphs, the change means another transition year for Kenseth, and that doesn't bode well for any title hopes the No. 17 team may have. Kenseth is not a dominant driver. He's good, but Jimmie Johnson has shown you need to win races to win titles and Kenseth simply doesn't win enough.

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Tony Stewart

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Tony Stewart doubles his work in 2009 as driver and owner.

After 10 successful seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing, resulting in 33 wins and two NASCAR championships, Tony Stewart is perhaps taking the biggest gamble of his racing career by taking over control of Haas CNC Racing and driving for the team.

Mark Aumann

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If past performance is any indication, Stewart and teammate Ryan Newman could have a very long 2009 season. Driver-owners Robby Gordon and Michael Waltrip have had limited success in those roles, and Darrell Waltrip, Ricky Rudd, Geoffrey Bodine and Bill Elliott can attest to the difficulty facing Stewart.

Alan Kulwicki was the last driver-owner to win a Cup championship, and Elliott remains under the impression that it will take someone special to be able to equal that feat in today's mega-team environment.

"I don't say it can't be done, but I'm saying the odds are way out there," Elliott said.

However, if there's one driver out there with the background to pull it off, it could be Stewart, who has successfully managed several open-wheel teams and operates Eldora Speedway. But the odds are long that Stewart will find immediate success in his newest endeavor.

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