Smack: Harvick, Smoke, Martin all shine before 500

1. Does Kevin Harvick's victory in the Budweiser Shootout make him a favorite in Sunday's Daytona 500? If not, then who's going to win the race?

Joe Menzer: It makes him a challenger, which he already was anyway, but not the favorite. You know how these races go. Any one of about 12 guys could win, depending on who stays out of trouble and who's in the lead pack at the end.

Dave Rodman: He's certainly one of the favorites, but prohibitively so? No way. How about Jeff Gordon? With less than seven laps to go he went from 13th to leading in the space of two laps. A real "Big E-type" performance. And what about Jamie McMurray? Nice.

David Caraviello: Kevin Harvick sure has a sneaky way of winning at Daytona. That race Saturday reminded me of his 500 victory two years ago, when he was never a factor until the very end. No question he knows how to be in the right place at the right time on that race track. But I agree, guys. The way he kept getting shuffled out of the front, and even losing the draft, makes me wonder about his chances in a much longer event Sunday.

Joe Menzer: Thing is, if he IS in the lead pack at the end, I do like Harvick's chances. He's obviously proven he has the guts and talent and savvy to slip through the crowd and get to the checkered at this place. Having said all that, I'm not picking him.

David Caraviello: But Joe, couldn't you say that about anyone at Daytona? If anyone is in the mix with five laps remaining, they have a shot, regardless of what they've done to that point. That's the beauty of the place.

Dave Rodman: There were some very good people not in that race, also -- like Ryan Newman and Mark Martin, just to name a couple. And if he's fired-up, which a pole seems to indicate, you gotta throw Little Martin [Truex Jr.] into the mix.

David Caraviello: Remember, those DEI cars were very good the last time NASCAR competed on a plate track, at Talladega last fall.

Dave Rodman: They'll have a chance if someone goes with them at the right moment. If you ask me, that Shootout was a wonderful piece of table dressing for the 500. Lotta garbage left afterward, though.

Joe Menzer: Little Martin? I'm thinking maybe I'll take the Littler Martin, as in Mark. Or should I call him "Older Martin."

No guarantees

Kevin Harvick won the '07 Daytona 500 but it didn't lead to much else. A look at the 500 winners in the Chase era and how their seasons ended up.

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Dave Rodman: Sorry Joe -- you've got to be a Northeasterner to pick up on that. When Martin Truex was racing -- and winning -- up there, "Little Martin" was just coming up. I like to hold onto my roots.

Joe Menzer: Deep as they are!

Dave Rodman: You got that right. Solid.

Joe Menzer: You are the "Older" guy on this staff, I might add.

David Caraviello: I was impressed that there were so many good cars Saturday night -- Gordon, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Earnhardt, Vickers, McMurray, Stewart, etc. It really seems like we have about 10 top contenders right now. And is Harvick in that bunch? He has to be, because he won the Shootout. But he wasn't one of the best cars Saturday, at least not until the very end. Of course, that's all that matters.

Joe Menzer: Yes, I think you have to put him in with that group. Again, he put himself in position to go for it at the end and then made a nice little move to get to the front at precisely the right time. Well done.

Dave Rodman: And dang proud of it. But we digress. I think it'll be more than that. Look at Clint Bowyer, even. If he and Shane Wilson mesh up and get on the same page in a hurry, you can't discount him. I dare say by the time we get through the Duels we'll have 20 possible winners. McMurray is only a dark horse at this point, based on recent history -- at least before the end of last year -- but Donnie Wingo made only one adjustment to the 26 car Saturday night, and that thing was awesome. If they make the same kind of progress the latter half of this week, they might be worth a wager.

Joe Menzer: Sadly, I guess James Hylton is not in that group. Remember him, Roadman? You probably went to high school with him.

David Caraviello: So often during Speedweeks a theme arises -- one car that's clearly better than everybody else and is the obvious favorite for the week. Dale Jarrett in 2000. Dale Jr. a few times. I don't think we have one of those this time around. It looks like a free-for-all.

Joe Menzer: It's also still early. Might be a little clearer after the Duels -- although as Roadman points out, it could get even murkier.

Dave Rodman: Funny you should say that, DC -- Saturday night, brass knuckles were legal. And just about required.

2. Who's going to have a more successful 2009 season: Mark Martin or Tony Stewart?

David Caraviello: Martin, 100 percent. Hendrick Motorsports behind him, a crew chief and team that's won races and made the Chase, everything established and in place. Martin is going to win races and contend for the championship.

Joe Menzer: Wow. That is a tough question. I think both could end up having very good seasons. But if I had to pick right now -- and I guess you're saying I have to -- I'm going with Mark Martin.

Dave Rodman: You know what? Coming into Speedweeks, I would have said Martin by far. But after Tony's team's performance through the first three tracks days, I'd rate it a dead toss-up right now.

"This owner/driver thing is easy"

Joe Menzer: Geez, all three of us agree? That's no fun!

David Caraviello: Rodman picked a tie! You can't do that!

Joe Menzer: Oh, yeah. I guess he did sit on the fence with his answer. Sometimes, I have to admit, I don't pay attention to what he's saying. Here's the thing with Tony and the Stewart-Haas operation. I think they'll be good in the long run, but there are going to be some growing pains with the new organization. I don't care how great the shop looks and how many great people are manning it.

Dave Rodman: All right. I'll have no qualms about picking Stewart. Again, the only thing I said leading into all this, for a long time now, was that he was no magician. But he is a damned good race car driver, an effective "stand back and let the boys go" manager, and an astute judge of who he needs where.

David Caraviello: Joe, I tend to agree. I think Tony's team is going to be very, very good. But until last week, they were still getting cars built. They've only tested once. They have a lot of people working together for the first time. I think there are going to be some growing pains.

Dave Rodman: Yeah, the wreck on the last lap of the Shootout put him on the podium, but he was nowhere near the lunch line. He locked-in in qualifying and I expect him to get better. I don't know if I'll say I stand corrected yet -- but it's certainly looking like I'll owe Tony an apology.

"Where's Joe -- I'll show him old!"

David Caraviello: That doesn't mean they're going to be bad, mind you. But championship-caliber? Given the history of start-up teams, they'll have to show me first.

Joe Menzer: Getting back to Martin, it just seems like they've got it all together. The rest of that team has been together for a while, and he seems rejuvenated and really determined to make at least one last run at the championship that has eluded him.

Dave Rodman: There were a lot of questions about the whole Stewart-Haas ensemble, not that there weren't questions about Mark coming back for a full season. But those questions are quickly being answered, particularly when you heard Tony rave about his comfort level, in short order, with Darian Grubb.

David Caraviello: I think Martin answered those questions a few years ago when he was a part-time driver with Bobby Ginn's operation, with fewer starts than everyone else, and still in Chase position a third of the way through the season. And remember, crew chief Alan Gustafson and the No. 5 bunch won a race and made the Chase with Kyle Busch two years ago. I think they're capable of at least that with Martin.

Joe Menzer: Yeah, I think what happened in 2007 whetted Martin's appetite for chasing a championship again. He might not even have realized it at first, but he wouldn't be human if he didn't wonder what might have happened if he had only run the full season.

David Caraviello: Now we'll get the chance to find out.

Dave Rodman: You got me in a tenuous position by making me choose. I won't say Mark's in the best position he's ever been in to win a title. But Alan's team is damned good, and Mark himself has said he might be the best he's ever been, too. That's why this season's going to be a joy on countless levels.

Joe Menzer: He wasn't in the mode to chase it then. But he is now.

3. When last we checked, Daytona wasn't having the easiest time selling tickets. What is NASCAR in for this season in terms of recession-induced empty seats?

Joe Menzer: I think NASCAR, like everyone, is facing a difficult year. The thing we all need to do is keep it in perspective. They'll still draw great crowds in a relative sense, even if they are down.

Dave Rodman: Let's see what happens before we pass too much judgment. Though, without speculating about real numbers, I think it's no secret attendance is going to be down across the board.

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David Caraviello: At least early in the season, I don't think it's going to be quite as awful as people perceive. The schedule is frontloaded with several popular or smaller-capacity racetracks that might mitigate the fact that fans have less disposable income. Daytona is still going to draw a huge crowd. Las Vegas could sell out. Bristol will be full. Phoenix and Richmond are immensely popular. Darlington isn't overbuilt. Tracks like that have a chance. It's the mega tri-ovals, the places like Atlanta and California and Texas that I worry about.

Joe Menzer: One thing I do like is that many of the tracks are trying to get creative again -- more so than in most recent years. I really like the Celebrity/Legends race that was added to the Bristol festivities, for instance.

Dave Rodman: There are all kinds of things that affect this, like outrageous advance purchase deadlines; collateral costs, like lodging and fuel; and travel. I think a more critical indicator is going to be TV ratings. If people are neither coming nor watching, that's trouble.

Joe Menzer: For the first time in a very long time, as of just a couple weeks ago, Bristol was still selling tickets. That's a sign of the sad times, boys.

Dave Rodman: It certainly is. I wouldn't grant anyone a sellout these days. When Richmond's consecutive sellout string ended -- and I'm not sure, did New Hampshire's as well? -- that's bad.

Joe Menzer: Take a look at Texas, though. Eddie Gossage has some decent tickets on the renovated backstretch that he's selling for $20. And parking is still free. That's a steal of a deal, I think.

David Caraviello: I will say this recession has forced the implementation of some lower ticket prices that were sorely needed. Anyone could see things trending this way, with NASCAR facing empty seats even before the recession hit. It's like the sport needed some sort of economic correction, and this is it. It's reminding tracks of who their core fans are, and what they're able to pay.

Menzer's book

Don't let Joe's modesty fool you, "The Great American Gamble" is a great read and available in the Superstore.

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Joe Menzer: Here's something to remember, too: NASCAR isn't the only sport these days having trouble selling tickets. All of 'em are. It's the economy, and the sports that are proactive and creative in dealing with it will come out ahead.

Dave Rodman: But the good thing, if the Shootout is any indication, the racing was pretty darned raucous. Cars were passing each other, we had a last-lap pass for the win and I swear, if that wreck didn't break out behind them, McMurray might have had a chance to out-run Harvick to the finish line, and racing like that will get some attention.

David Caraviello: Yes, but Dave, will the racing be like that at California and Las Vegas, when the real season begins?

Dave Rodman: We will have to wait and see, David. And I don't know that it'll be an instant fix even if it is. Businesses, I think, have to do some real in-depth analysis of how little they can charge to still make money. I'm not talking about pirate money -- I'm talking about reasonable profit. Cut your prices to that level and work with the clientele.

Joe Menzer: If the track owners can work together with NASCAR, they could come out ahead of some other sports in the long run. It's really up to them, but I like much of what I'm seeing so far. Now let's see if the fans respond.

Dave Rodman: Definitely so, Joe. People might eat hot dogs, but they're going to be entertained, by God. And it's contingent on these multi-billion and multi-million dollar companies to cut them some slack. Better to have butts in the seats buying hot dogs and beer than sitting elsewhere. So cut those prices, boys.

Joe Menzer: As for the racing itself, I've said it before and I'll say it again: not every race can have a fantastic finish, just like not every football or baseball or basketball game can have one. But it's plenty good enough, in my opinion.

David Caraviello: And it's worth noting that, even with many empty seats, tracks are still capable of drawing crowds that would dwarf those for an NFL game. What racing needed is more variation in ticket prices. They've been slanted too high, in my opinion, with a few cheap-seat bones thrown in. This recession is changing that, and evening ticket prices out somewhat. That's a good thing.

Joe Menzer: Here's yet another thing I've always loved about NASCAR (geez, it seems like I'm drinking deeply from the well water at Daytona Beach today), but this one comes from the heart: What other sport allows you to bring in your own cooler of beer -- and food!

David Caraviello: I just hope nobody has to slash prices on The Great American Gamble, now available at a bookstore near you!

Dave Rodman: Wow, shameless plug Joe. I hope you're bringing my copy to Daytona.

Joe Menzer: Oh, I'm sure it'll end up on a bargain table at some point. They all do. But not just yet! (And don't forget, folks, it's also available at the NASCAR.com Superstore!) And, yes, Roadman, your copy is on the way.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the writers.