Track Smack: Surprises, Junior and two at Vegas (cont'd)

2. It's only two races in, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 35th in points. How much trouble is he in?

Joe Menzer: Even though his fans currently think I have some kind of personal vendetta against him for calling it like it was and saying he had a horrible day at Daytona, he was going to be OK in California until the engine blew. I think in the long run he will be all right, but he's going to have to string a bunch of strong finishes together here pretty soon. I do believe he and the No. 88 team are capable of it, though.

Bad parts felled cars

Hendrick Motorsports officials say bad parts led to mechanical failures that knocked Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Mark Martin out of Sunday's Auto Club 500 at Fontana.

"Both cars had valve-train failures that were related to a specific batch of parts from a vendor," said Dough Duchardt, Hendrick's vice president of development.

Duchardt said the team was glad the problem wasn't more widespread because the same batch of parts was used by Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, as well as in engines leased to Stewart-Haas Racing.

Earnhardt finished 39th and Martin 40th.

-- Sporting News Wire Service

• Video: Hendrick engines fail
• Video: Junior talks with D.W.

Dave Rodman: Well, in this case I'll go back to what I thought after Daytona. Let's wait until after Vegas. He had a great car at Daytona, but his lack of focus was way more troubling than a crappy car would have been. They didn't get a chance to show much improvement at Cali. Vegas is gonna be a key.

David Caraviello: He's in trouble. Not as far as the top 35 is concerned -- people are getting way too excited about that right now -- but definitely in terms of the Chase. He's digging quite a hole, not all of it of his own making.

Joe Menzer: Well, not all of it is his own making -- but much of it is. Hate to keep beating the same drum, but he was awful at Daytona and then, strangely, seemed to be in a little denial about it immediately afterward. His lack of focus when he missed his pit the first time around -- dropping him from third to 36th and arguably altering his mind-set for the worse for the rest of the day -- was startling and inexcusable.

David Caraviello: I remember two years ago entering Las Vegas he had a crappy start to the season and was 40th. He said at the time he wasn't worried about his position. Of course, he wound up missing the Chase. It's not easy to climb out of something like that, no matter who you are.

Dave Rodman: He and that team are good enough, especially at Atlanta and Bristol, that the top 35 is not a real concern, as David says; but overall, as we all know, your statistical chances of making the Chase in the wake of a crappy start to the season are slim to none. And since the Chase is what Sprint Cup is all about these days ...

David Caraviello: You're right on there, Roadman. The TV folks seemed to have grabbed hold of this "Dale Jr. top 35 thing," and they're missing the point. He's not going to miss races. But miss the Chase two out of three years? That would send Junior Nation into quite a frenzy.

Joe Menzer: You know what this crappy start might do for him? Maybe make that team, in time, start worrying less about having good points days and more about winning races and then get on a serious roll. Of course, that's high risk versus high reward driving, which hasn't usually been the way the No. 88 team has operated, in my opinion.

Dave Rodman: Whatever it was at Daytona -- and to his credit he was excruciatingly honest about it when discussing it during pre-race for California -- Vegas is gonna be a key for getting re-focused and getting into contention. I don't know about winning, because those Roush Fenway cars are pretty good, right now, but he's gotta contend.

Much better

Both the wall at Las Vegas and Jeff Gordon are improved since the two collided last year.

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• Video: Track Facts

Joe Menzer: The Hendrick cars are pretty good right now, as long as they can get whatever engine issues they had last week in Junior and Mark Martin's cars resolved quickly. I think he can contend, but finishing the job has been their problem.

David Caraviello: Yeah, maybe this situation will light a fire under him. He's just seemed a little off the first part of this year. He's not driving like himself. I still firmly believe that the guy who won 18 races and finished fifth or better in final points three times is in there. It's just a matter of bringing him out.

Dave Rodman: At the risk of sounding ridiculous, because Junior's a proven commodity, he needs to contend first, then worry about winning. Since that team, in its current configuration, has only won once, first things first.

David Caraviello: The engine issue last week was clearly not his fault. But man, if he continues to struggle, in a Hendrick car -- the anti-Junior backlash could get ugly. I don't think that's going to happen, though. I still think he's better than this.

Joe Menzer: If you look at his career, it seems to me that he has been at his best when perhaps the expectations weren't as high as they have been recently -- and are at the moment. Maybe that's part of the dynamic at work here.

Dave Rodman: Like a lot of other entities in that garage, he's capable of ripping off a bunch of good finishes in a row. He's versatile enough -- you look at these upcoming tracks and you can't really pick one where he's guaranteed to stink. You can say that about a lot of other people, if you bothered to really dig into it.

Joe Menzer: Are you talking about Michael Waltrip again?

David Caraviello: Hey, who let Clint Bowyer in here? You're right, Dave, Atlanta and Bristol are historically his type of places. And they finished second at Vegas last year. The table is set for a rebound.

Dave Rodman: Waltrip certainly would be in that larger group. Heck, I bet you could even put Jeff Gordon in that group, though I'd be at a loss to figure out where ... Texas. How about that?

Joe Menzer: I think Jeff Gordon will win soon, and certainly more often this year than Junior will. I think there is a guy who really is focused on getting back to Victory Lane, and knows what he needs to do to get there.

Dave Rodman: Though in 2009 it certainly appears the "terrible twos" are just what ol' Jeff needed. He will win soon, bank on that.

Also
• Junior on list to watch for Vegas, for wrong reason (Continued)