Track Smack: Surprises, Junior and two at Vegas

1. Michael Waltrip is seventh, Juan Montoya is 10th, Elliott Sadler is 11th and David Reutimann is 12th. Of those drivers, who has the best chance of hanging in Chase position the longest?

David Caraviello: Montoya, no question. The guy's always had a tremendous amount of talent, he's great on road courses, and very good on big, fast ovals. That Earnhardt horsepower may be the difference he needs to take the next step.

Joe Menzer: It's hard to disagree with DC2 on Montoya, but I think you might be able to make the case for David Reutimann. I think he's poised to make a quantum leap forward this season.

Dave Rodman: The interesting thing is, every one of those guys should stay there. They're Sprint Cup drivers, for goodness sake. But, having said that, David Reutimann is coming. It started at the end of last season with the pole at Homestead. This is the fruition of a lot of hard work for that boy.

Joe Menzer: What? Are you out of your mind, Roadman? You really think Michael Waltrip can stay there -- in seventh? He's the one most likely to drop like a rock, and fast. Plus, I think we all knew that the Richard Petty Motorsports success at Daytona, while fun and exciting, was an anomaly. Even folks on some of those teams wondered openly if they would struggle once they got to the "regular" tracks.

David Caraviello: Roadman, what have you been spiking your coffee with this morning? Maybe one of those guys hangs in there. Given that guys like Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are outside the top 12, most of these dudes are on borrowed time.

Dave Rodman: Here's my take on that. Reuttie has been the spear point, but Michael Waltrip Racing has been on the upswing. When Michael was with, I can't remember if it was Tony Eury Jr. or Tony Gibson at DEI, he was making it happen on a weekly basis. You don't remember Phoenix? And a lot of other places. They are due, as in "long-suffering overdue."

Joe Menzer: But what about Clint Bowyer's candid assessment of Michael as a driver at Bristol last year?

David Caraviello: Oh, don't mention that around Michael. It still irks him.

Dave Rodman: Heat of the moment. You should know, Josephus, that that doesn't count. You think Shane Hmiel would have given Dale Jarrett the finger at Bristol if he had five minutes to think about it? Maybe he would have hung a glove over his in-car camera first -- but the kid's not a thug. He wouldn't have done it.

Joe Menzer: Well, here are some hard-core facts to consider: Michael hasn't won a race since 2003. For Sadler, it's been since 2004. At least with Montoya and Reutimann -- or "Reuttie," as "Roadie" so affectionately calls him -- you are talking about guys who should be on the upswing in their careers.

David Caraviello: Hey, no question the Waltrip cars are better. Looks like they're finally turning the corner over there. But let's see where they are at Martinsville. It's a very long way from where they were last year to the Chase.

Joe Menzer: One thing you have to say about Michael is that as a car owner, the product he is putting on the track on a weekly basis obviously has gotten better. And he is motivated. He said if he doesn't drive better this year, it will be time to get out.

David Caraviello: Plus, a lot of these guys are still living off their Daytona finishes. I remember a few years ago at this time, guys like David Stremme and J.J. Yeley were in Chase position. It's much too early to start getting excited about this stuff. Things will change.

Dave Rodman: Our eminent colleague, Mr. Reid Spencer, had an apt piece that we posted on NASCAR.COM. I had said post-Vegas was the time to look at the top 35. That could be wrong. Tendencies start early in a season, and for some of these guys, 2009 is gonna be a potential rude-awakening.

David Caraviello: But we're not talking about top 35 here. We're talking about Chase position. Big difference. Here's why I like Montoya to hang around. The guy's finished in the top 20 in points before, and clearly that Ganassi operation was missing something on its own. I always wondered if Juan would have been better off somewhere else. Now he has the benefit of those great ECR engines. And plus, Juan is much better than people give him credit for on intermediate tracks, which are the bread and butter of the Sprint Cup tour.

Dave Rodman: I think Montoya's 2008 was an anomaly. Like I said, Reutimann is coming on. But guys like Bowyer, Johnson and Kyle Busch -- not to mention Kurt -- are like Terriers looking for bones. As nice as they are, this is the Chase, and some blood is gonna be spilt.

Joe Menzer: If one of those aforementioned gentlemen is in the Chase when all is said and done, I say that will be a pretty huge upset. But if I had to bet, I would bet on Montoya. I think Reutimann may make a run at it but be in sort of the same position David Ragan was when all was said and done last year. Close but no cigar.

David Caraviello: I could see that, Joe. But that would still be a huge accomplishment for Reutimann.

Joe Menzer: Or Reuttie, as we call him here! Wasn't there a Reuttie who once played football at Notre Dame and had a inspirational movie made about him?

Dave Rodman: Uh, that was Rudy, I believe ...

Also
• Hamlin, Johnson chasing top 12 entering Las Vegas
• Top teams need to heed early season warning signs

2. It's only two races in, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 35th in points. How much trouble is he in?

Joe Menzer: Even though his fans currently think I have some kind of personal vendetta against him for calling it like it was and saying he had a horrible day at Daytona, he was going to be OK in California until the engine blew. I think in the long run he will be all right, but he's going to have to string a bunch of strong finishes together here pretty soon. I do believe he and the No. 88 team are capable of it, though.

Bad parts felled cars

Hendrick Motorsports officials say bad parts led to mechanical failures that knocked Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Mark Martin out of Sunday's Auto Club 500 at Fontana.

"Both cars had valve-train failures that were related to a specific batch of parts from a vendor," said Dough Duchardt, Hendrick's vice president of development.

Duchardt said the team was glad the problem wasn't more widespread because the same batch of parts was used by Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, as well as in engines leased to Stewart-Haas Racing.

Earnhardt finished 39th and Martin 40th.

-- Sporting News Wire Service

• Video: Hendrick engines fail
• Video: Junior talks with D.W.

Dave Rodman: Well, in this case I'll go back to what I thought after Daytona. Let's wait until after Vegas. He had a great car at Daytona, but his lack of focus was way more troubling than a crappy car would have been. They didn't get a chance to show much improvement at Cali. Vegas is gonna be a key.

David Caraviello: He's in trouble. Not as far as the top 35 is concerned -- people are getting way too excited about that right now -- but definitely in terms of the Chase. He's digging quite a hole, not all of it of his own making.

Joe Menzer: Well, not all of it is his own making -- but much of it is. Hate to keep beating the same drum, but he was awful at Daytona and then, strangely, seemed to be in a little denial about it immediately afterward. His lack of focus when he missed his pit the first time around -- dropping him from third to 36th and arguably altering his mind-set for the worse for the rest of the day -- was startling and inexcusable.

David Caraviello: I remember two years ago entering Las Vegas he had a crappy start to the season and was 40th. He said at the time he wasn't worried about his position. Of course, he wound up missing the Chase. It's not easy to climb out of something like that, no matter who you are.

Dave Rodman: He and that team are good enough, especially at Atlanta and Bristol, that the top 35 is not a real concern, as David says; but overall, as we all know, your statistical chances of making the Chase in the wake of a crappy start to the season are slim to none. And since the Chase is what Sprint Cup is all about these days ...

David Caraviello: You're right on there, Roadman. The TV folks seemed to have grabbed hold of this "Dale Jr. top 35 thing," and they're missing the point. He's not going to miss races. But miss the Chase two out of three years? That would send Junior Nation into quite a frenzy.

Joe Menzer: You know what this crappy start might do for him? Maybe make that team, in time, start worrying less about having good points days and more about winning races and then get on a serious roll. Of course, that's high risk versus high reward driving, which hasn't usually been the way the No. 88 team has operated, in my opinion.

Dave Rodman: Whatever it was at Daytona -- and to his credit he was excruciatingly honest about it when discussing it during pre-race for California -- Vegas is gonna be a key for getting re-focused and getting into contention. I don't know about winning, because those Roush Fenway cars are pretty good, right now, but he's gotta contend.

Much better

Both the wall at Las Vegas and Jeff Gordon are improved since the two collided last year.

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Joe Menzer: The Hendrick cars are pretty good right now, as long as they can get whatever engine issues they had last week in Junior and Mark Martin's cars resolved quickly. I think he can contend, but finishing the job has been their problem.

David Caraviello: Yeah, maybe this situation will light a fire under him. He's just seemed a little off the first part of this year. He's not driving like himself. I still firmly believe that the guy who won 18 races and finished fifth or better in final points three times is in there. It's just a matter of bringing him out.

Dave Rodman: At the risk of sounding ridiculous, because Junior's a proven commodity, he needs to contend first, then worry about winning. Since that team, in its current configuration, has only won once, first things first.

David Caraviello: The engine issue last week was clearly not his fault. But man, if he continues to struggle, in a Hendrick car -- the anti-Junior backlash could get ugly. I don't think that's going to happen, though. I still think he's better than this.

Joe Menzer: If you look at his career, it seems to me that he has been at his best when perhaps the expectations weren't as high as they have been recently -- and are at the moment. Maybe that's part of the dynamic at work here.

Dave Rodman: Like a lot of other entities in that garage, he's capable of ripping off a bunch of good finishes in a row. He's versatile enough -- you look at these upcoming tracks and you can't really pick one where he's guaranteed to stink. You can say that about a lot of other people, if you bothered to really dig into it.

Joe Menzer: Are you talking about Michael Waltrip again?

David Caraviello: Hey, who let Clint Bowyer in here? You're right, Dave, Atlanta and Bristol are historically his type of places. And they finished second at Vegas last year. The table is set for a rebound.

Dave Rodman: Waltrip certainly would be in that larger group. Heck, I bet you could even put Jeff Gordon in that group, though I'd be at a loss to figure out where ... Texas. How about that?

Joe Menzer: I think Jeff Gordon will win soon, and certainly more often this year than Junior will. I think there is a guy who really is focused on getting back to Victory Lane, and knows what he needs to do to get there.

Dave Rodman: Though in 2009 it certainly appears the "terrible twos" are just what ol' Jeff needed. He will win soon, bank on that.

Also
• Junior on list to watch for Vegas, for wrong reason

3. It's time to race at Las Vegas, which means it's time to listen to track chairman Bruton Smith lobby for a second Sprint Cup date. But which one-race track most deserves a second weekend?

Dave Rodman: The timing is perfect, considering Vegas, in every way you could consider it, I think could certainly support a second date.

Behind the neon

Few cities have been hit by the recession as hard as the one that NASCAR visits this week.

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• Travel Log: Las Vegas
• Video: Preview Show

David Caraviello: OK, I love Vegas. The people there are fantastic, president Chris Powell does a great job, the facility and the city are amazing. But after what's happened in California, I'd have real qualms about awarding a second date to a facility with 142,000 seats.

Dave Rodman: Hmmm. DC2, I think you are really making a grapes-to-pineapples comparison when stacking Las Vegas Motor Speedway against the former California Speedway. And Vegas is the pineapple, baby.

Joe Menzer: I still say Vegas. Look, there are a number of tracks that were overbuilt. In this economy especially, those places are not going to sell out. But a crowd of 90,000 or more to any sporting event right now is nothing to be ashamed of.

David Caraviello: Dave, the Southwest is the new Southeast, the one part of the country most susceptible to market over-saturation. Not sure another race in that region would be a good idea.

Joe Menzer: But it's Vegas, baby!

Dave Rodman: Look at it this way. Date and geographical proximity could hurt Vegas -- but let's see how many people Vegas puts in this weekend.

Joe Menzer: Vegas is getting a bad rap these days. A few bad-apple bailout recipients start canceling conventions there, and suddenly everyone wants to bash the place. Listen, they aren't the ones at fault, meaning the casinos and the entire Vegas conglomeration in general.

David Caraviello: Hey, would I like to go to Vegas twice a year? Absolutely. I love the place. But if I'm going to hand out a second race, it's going to be to a facility with a smaller seating capacity, like Chicago or Kansas.

Joe Menzer: Why? They'll get the same crowd total as Vegas -- or maybe a little less! In fact, Chicagoland has a grandstand seating capacity of 75,000. Kansas is at a little more than 81,000. So even what would be considered "a bad crowd" at Vegas likely will exceed full houses there by at least 10,000.

Dave Rodman: If NASCAR's eyeballed 78,000 estimate at California was accurate, that was pretty good work, though only ISC knows how many of those might have been complimentary (i.e., free). Depending on what Vegas does, I'd start doing the transfer papers right now to take a California date a little farther east. But in this (ahem) non-monopolistic environment I guess that ain't about to happen.

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Joe Menzer: Furthermore, who is to say that, in this current economic climate, Chicago and/or Kansas would be sure to sell out two dates. I'm not sure about that in either case.

David Caraviello: We've been over this before -- a lot of these tracks with two races and 100,000 seats are struggling. Part of that is the recession, no doubt. But part of it is the fact that times have changed, and these facilities are overbuilt. Do you really want to run the risk of having another race with lots of empty seats on TV?

Dave Rodman: It doesn't appeal to me that much, but Vegas -- if it's reasonably supported, which would be a crowd of more than 100,000 -- should be a lock for a second date. If Bruton's forced to do something, Atlanta is the California of the East.

David Caraviello: Well, let's see how Atlanta's new Labor Day date does. Again, I love Vegas. Great city, great track. I'd go there three times a year if I could. But if I'm NASCAR, I'm a little worried by the track record of these huge facilities with a second date, that's all.

Joe Menzer: Well, more of the overbuilt places need to start downsizing a little. Like they've done in Texas where they took out seats in the backstretch and made the ones they kept there more affordable. Or like they are doing at Lowe's Motor Speedway in Charlotte, where they are trading some regular seats for track-side motorhome camping, which seems to be increasing in popularity. Look at Martinsville. Clay Campbell, who runs M'ville, argued that his size of track might ultimately become the most popular again. Is it coming back to that?

David Caraviello: Totally agree, Joe. Fans in all sports want more intimate venues with better sight lines and better customer service. That's not to say a place like Vegas doesn't provide great service -- unquestionably, it does. But smaller stadiums are the wave of the future.

Dave Rodman: As I've always said, they need to mix things up, give some different ideas and places a chance. Geez, Talladega's fall race last year, I think, was about the most shocking sight I've ever seen at a race track in terms of empty seats -- since those huge gaps at Lowe's have been common for years. But it doesn't mean they're not doing some other great things. All the facilities are working like mad, so good for them.

David Caraviello: Of course, if Bruton really wants another date, he does have a smaller facility up there in Kentucky ...

Dave Rodman: That baby is a classic white elephant, no matter how small, until that court deal is resolved.

Joe Menzer: Well, that's also very interesting. I agree with Roadman, let's give some places like that a chance and mix it up a little. Plus, Kentucky is close to Cincinnati, and you know how I love Skyline Chili and Montgomery Inn ribs!

Dave Rodman: Joe, if you and I are the duo, I'd say let's make it happen.

David Caraviello: There won't be any food left in the Ohio River Valley if they turn you two loose up there.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.