Smack: Evaluating the ups, downs after an early break (cont'd)

2. Over the last 10 races at Bristol, no driver has scored more points than Dale Earnhardt Jr. Is he primed for a breakout?

Joe Menzer: After having predicted several breakouts for Junior in the past, only to have them fail to materialize, I must say that at this time, I'm just not feeling it for him or that No. 88 team. Something seems off there.

David Caraviello: I think he's heading in that direction anyway, with top-11 finishes in his last two races. I think that slow start is behind them, and they're getting it together where it really matters -- 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, the staple of the Sprint Cup tour.

Dave Rodman: I think they started to come around at Atlanta, didn't they? And they haven't run quite as bad as they've ended up. I think if the cars stay together and they don't get ambushed, both Bristol and Martinsville would rate as good performances. I'd put Kurt Busch on my fantasy team first, though, and that's saying something.

The Junior effect

Despite just one win in the last 102 Cup races, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a one-man economic powerhouse. But why?

• Complete story, click here

Joe Menzer: I think Boss Man, Duane Cross, already gobbled up Kurt Busch. And he's (rightfully) bragging about it.

Dave Rodman: So far that's certainly the case, Joe, but I kinda think we're seeing a Kurt Busch circa 2004 performance setting up, here. And this is the 2009-era Busch, so that is a chilling prospect for the competition.

David Caraviello: I will admit, that Bristol statistic surprised me a bit. I would have guessed Kevin Harvick in that category (though I believe he's second). But Junior does have only one finish worse than 11th over his last 10 races there -- although that was an 18th his last time out. Though he did win there in the fall of 2004.

Joe Menzer: I'm a little surprised by that stat as well. But then again, Junior has become really adept about producing decent points finishes without seriously contending for the wins. It's time for him to contend for more wins at the end.

David Caraviello: Well, we'll save Kurt for later in Track Smack. As for Junior, really, the guy's not in terrible shape compared to some others. True, he has to dig himself out of an early-season hole again, but he has some of his better tracks coming up.

Joe Menzer: I just get the feeling that the No. 88 team is too content with "good points days." He needs to win some races. And the only way to win races is to be up there fighting for them at the end, which he hasn't been able to do much lately. And by lately, I mean over the last two and a half years.

David Caraviello: Joe, I disagree. Sitting 24th in points or wherever he is, it's all about good finishes. He needs them right now. Why risk a third going for first if the gamble could leave you further behind? If you're in Jeff Gordon's situation, go for it. But not Junior's.

Joe Menzer: It's exactly that kind of attitude that is killing racing!

Dave Rodman: As I said a couple Smacks ago, Junior is good just about everywhere. He and Tony Jr. are apt to get off track anywhere -- but just about everyone else is, too. And if he's able to concentrate on what he needs to get in shape with the race car leading up to race day, and then he can communicate what it needs and the team can keep it under him, they'll do well.

Joe Menzer: Go for the wins, man!

David Caraviello: Ideally, yes. But that's not always practical.

Joe Menzer: But that's just it. That should be what these guys go for every week. It isn't, but it should be.

"Bring it, Joe. Whoooo!"

Ric Flair

• LMS adds a little Flair
• 1on1: The Nature Boy

Dave Rodman: Practicality is virtually killing racing, as Joe pointed out.

David Caraviello: That's like saying "go for the dunk" when a layup will do, and then you thunk it off the side of the rim. I know you can't personally relate to that metaphor, Joe, but try anyway.

Joe Menzer: Who is the most exciting racer out there right now? Kyle Busch? You think he gives a hoot about a "good points finish?" I don't. He thirsts to win. That's what drives him, and that's one reason he's up front so much. Have that attitude and the dang points should take care of themselves, or at least you'll make a hero of yourself while trying.

David Caraviello: Joe's been hanging around Ric Flair a little too much.

Dave Rodman: You gotta be racing for wins, and even if you don't have a winning car, you need to keep striving to get the next spot. Those points have proven to count. And chunking a dunk is the equivalent of wrecking one. You gotta know where aspirations outrun talent and stop just shy of that point. That, too, is the beauty of racing and excelling.

David Caraviello: Well, I know all about aspirations outstripping talent. But hey, the way this points structure is set up, it's all risk versus reward. That has to be taken in consideration, is all I'm saying. Just like the guy with the big stack at the poker table can call anything, while the guy with the little stack may be happy to finish anywhere in the money. It happens.

Joe Menzer: I relate more to heaving in a 3-pointer from 27 feet out. You miss one, keep chucking it! (Maybe that's why my team lost in the first round of our tournament).

David Caraviello: Joe is really burnishing his coaching credentials in this Track Smack! (Continued)